Stillers vs. Raiders Pregame Analysis (Game #1, vs. Oak.)
The Stillers open the 2004 season against their bitter,
longtime rival, the Oakland Raidas.� The
Stillers and Raidas both are coming off miserable seasons, with the 6-10 Stillers
only slightly better than the 4-12 record of the 2003 Raidas.�
* When the Raidas have the ball, they'll bring
an experienced, capable set of skill players that will give the Stillers quite
a bit to handle.� Rich Gannon will start
at QB, although Kerry Collins presumably impressed enough during camp that
he'll be salivating to enter the game if Gannon should struggle.� Collins tossed 4 TDs in preseason and had a
yards/attempt of over double to that of Gannon.� Mr. Gannon, of course, is the renowned master of the dink and
dunk, quite capable of carving up a defense if softee, 12-yard cushions are
allowed throughout the afternoon.� This
season is most likely Gannon's last hurrah, and with Tuiasosopo and Collins
backing him up, it'll be surprising if Gannon doesn't see bench duty if he
sustains any kind of a slump.��
The running game is a very potent weapon on this Raiders
team.� While such luminaries as Jerome
Bettis were plodding along for 2-3 yards per carry this preseason, the Raiders
got over 5 yards per carry from each of their first 3 RBs on the depth chart:
Tyrone Wheatley, Justin Fargas, and former-Stiller Amoz Zereoue.� They've lost Charlie Garner's effectiveness
out of the backfield as a receiver, but the aforementioned trio is quite capable
of chipping in on flares and screens.�
Additionally, backup RB J.R. Redmond had a nice preseason, grabbing 10
passes.� Zack Crockett serves as a
capable FB.�
The Raiders kept 4 TEs on their final roster, but unlike the
Stillers, the Raiders actually use their TE as something more than a glorified
tackle-eligible.� TE Doug Jolley didn't
have quite the success he did as a rookie, but is still a capable receiver,
having snared 31 passed last season.�
Teyo Johnson arrived to the Raiders as a highly touted 2-sport athlete
from Stanford, but thus far has generated little.� The really intriguing TE I'm looking forward to seeing in action
-- if he dresses -- is mammoth rookie TE Courtney Anderson from San Jose St.,
who is only 6-6" and 270 pounds.�
He's raw, but facing a team that guards TEs as effectively as a sieve
holds water, Andy could make a bang in his first pro game.� Roland Williams is the best blocker of the
bunch, and will get some work when the Raiders want to play smashmouth.�
Tim Brown has finally moved on, but the Raiders still
possess a dangerous receiving corps.�
The ageless Jerry Rice returns for his zillionth season as the age of
42.� I tend to think a receiver of Rice's
age will slow down as the season progresses, but quite obviously, he'll be as
fresh as a daisy in the season opener and as dangerous as C4.� Oddly enough, the Raiders decided to keep 7
(seven) WRs on their final 53-man roster, so even if Rice needs a breather,
there are plenty of fresh legs available.�
Opposite Rice will be former Mountaineer Jerry Porter, who has been
hampered by a hernia and lackluster productivity the past couple of
seasons.� Veteran backup and special
teamer Alvis Whitted has blazing speed, and with the retirement of Brown,
Whitted will be asked to chip in a bit more to the Raider offense.� Ditto for backup Doug Gabriel, who has good
size and potential, and has been a coaching staff favorite in Oakland due to
strong work habits.� Rookie WE Carlos
Francis from Texas Tech is an intriguing prospect; small, but with blazing
speed and quickness.� Former UNC hoops
and gridiron player Ronald Curry also serves as a backup WR and special
teamer.�
The O-line is halfway decent, but hardly dominant.� Robert Gallery was selected 2nd in the
entire draft to serve as the starting LT for the next decade or 2, but on
Sunday, he'll apparently join the ranks of the benchwarmer.� Gallery was nicked up a lil' bit in
preseason with an elbow injury, and the Raiders decided to go with veteran Barry
Sims at LT.� Frankly, if it were up to
me, I'd have Gallery (assuming his health is fine) starting at LT and find Sims
some work elsewhere on the line, probably at LG.� You don't invest the 2nd pick in the draft on a left tackle and
then have him standing on the sidelines come Sundays in September.� Gallery has spent some time at OG, and,
hell, knowing the Raiders and they're fondness of clever stunts involving
lineups and injury reports, Jim Otto could very well end up playing LT before
the afternoon is over.� Vet Adam Treu
held off rookie Jake Grove for the starting centering chores.� Fat Lincoln Kennedy is gone, but Langston
Walker is a solid replacement at RT.�
Frank Middleton and Ron Stone will presumably man the guard spots.� In sum, the Raider O-line is hardly
dominating, but they're experienced and capable enough to open small holes for
their fleet stable of backs, as well as give Gannon the small amount of time he
needs for his dinky passes.��
Norv Turner was brought in by Oakland Al Davis, presumably
to restore some verticality to this Raider offense.� Not a shabby idea, but I'm not convinced that Gannon's arm can
support such a large shift in geometry, and this preseason showed just
that.� Turner is apt to at least take a
few stabs deep with the pump fake, trying to fool Charred Scott, which has
proven to be a rather easy task.��
The Stillers' starting defense was hardly impressive last
season, nor in this preseason.� The
rush, particularly from the LB crew, has been soft and feeble.� The secondary, as we all know, starts 2
safeties that have never started an NFL game:�
Hope and Polamalu.� Furthermore,
one starting CB, Deshea Townsend, is hardly a seasoned starter himself, having
been marooned for years behind the dynamic duo of DeWayne Washington and Sad
Scott.��
The key matchup will be the Stiller pass defense against the short timing routes of Gannon and his receivers.� The Raider starting WR corps is hardly to be confused with a fleet group of receivers.� It will be interesting, and amusing, to see if Chad and Deshea play the preponderance of snaps at 8 or 10 yards off the ball, or if they come up once in a while to jam these WRs.� The way to disrupt Gannon, quite simply, is to jam the piss out of his receivers, thereby negating his ability to get off quick passes within 2-3 seconds of the snap.�
The other key matchup is the Raider RBs catching flares out
of the backfield, versus the Stiller LB corps.�
The short flips are a Raider favorite the past couple of seasons; it
plays to Gannon's strength as a Kenny Anderson-like dinkaholic, and it allows
them to use the flares as a long handoff in order to pick up nice chunks of
yardage while chewing the clock.�
* When the Stillers have the ball, they'll
arrive with what seems to be a much more well-rounded offense than last year's
1-dimensional version.� The key, of
course, is the addition of Duce Staley, which gives the Stillers a strong yet
quick every-down back, which is something that has been sorely lacking since
the 1997season.� QB Tommy Maddox has
looked as smooth as silk this preseason, and the WR trio of Burress, Ward, and
El looks to have few peers around the NFL.�
The Raiders wanted to go with a 3-4 defense this season, but
a rash of injuries to their LB corps has forced them to adopt some sort of
bastardized hybrid.� Delawrence Grant
followed Nap Harris and Sam Williams in a parade to the trainer's table with
injury, throwing the LB depth chart into the commode.� Harris is a stalwart MLB, and he will be missed in this lineup,
especially against a Stiller team that is seeking to pound the ball.� Akbar Gbaja-Biamila is an
intriguing prospect, based on bloodlines, and could be thrust into more
strenuous work on Sundays.� He's best known for being
the younger brother of Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, the Green Bay Packer "KGB", though he's far from accomplished as the
KGB'er.� Helmet-throwing LB Dwayne
Rudd was part of Sunday's cuts, so he's merely joining fellow LB Jason GilDong
in the line for unemployment compensation.�
Warren The Sapp and Fat Ted Washington joined the Raidas
this past offseason, and not a moment too soon for Silver n' Black fans.� The Raiders had nothing on their interior
line last season, and although Fat Ted is old and fat, and Warren is over
bloated with hype, these 2 give the line an immense upgrade.� Fat Ted looked enormous in preseason,
however, and would seem to be ripe for being tuckered out come the 2nd half of
a September ballgame.� Tyler Brayton is
a solid DE who had a fine rookie campaign and could possibly bust out with an
even bigger season in 2004.�
Turner will probably be reluctant to run-blitz early in this
game, but if his front line is getting gashed, he'll have little choice but to
unleash the dogs and hope for the best.�
Obviously, especially early in a season, the best way to disrupt a Billy
Cowher coached offense is to stray from the vanilla and attack Cowher's dazed
troops with an array of stunts, blitzes, and looks.�
�
The secondary is in a bit of a tizzy with a whirlwind of
personnel moves.� Chuck Woodson ended a
lengthy 33-day holdout and finally reported.�
He'll likely lock horns with another disgruntled vet, Plex Burress, but
the difference is that Burress is in shape and played all of the preseason,
whereas Chuck should be a bit rusty and short of breath.� Starting SS Derrick Gibson injured his
shoulder in a preseason tilt versus the Rams, so the Raidas traded for Green
Bay's Marques Anderson while Gibber was placed on IR.� Former
Redskins starter David Terrell backs up at SS, with 3rd round
rookie safety Stu Schweigert from Purdue serving as a FS backup.� The extremely capable CB Phil Buchanon is
also hobbled by a knee, but should be able to play in the opener.�
The key matchup will be the Stillers O-line
neutralizing Warren The Sapp, while also taking advantage of the hobbled LB and
DB corps of the Raidas.� The Stillers
have long had good success against The Sapp, mostly because they've been able
to take advantage of Sapp's foolhardy impatience and failure to read a play as
it develops.� With Sapp neutralized,
Staley should be able to gash the Raider front 7 for some nice chunks of
yardage.� With all of the personnel
shuffling from the holdout and the plethora of injuries, the LB and DB units of
the Raiders will have an awfully hard time keeping up with Plex, Ward, and
El.� This matchup is ripe for the
Stillers to not only take, but dominate.�
* Special Teams: �This early in the season, it's often difficult to weigh the merits
of special teams strengths, because most units haven't yet jelled.� The Raiders have gotten solid return work
from Gabriel and Francis.� Phil Buchanon
is a dangerous PR man, but his hobbled knee might sway Norv Turner to relieve
him of these duties.� Punter Shane
Lechler is a strong, first-rate punter.�
Doughboy Janikowski is a solid placekicker.� The Stillers are hoping for strong contributions for Coclough and
Taylor, as well as El, in the return game.�
Jeff Reed survived the competition from Rob Bironas and will do the
booting.� Let's hope he gets some air
and distance on his KOs, because that's where Bironas could have really helped
out.��
* Synopsis: It's opening day, which means
only two things to Billy Cowher:� slop
and slather.�� As has been previously
written, Little Billy loves nothing more than slop and slather on
opening day.� He's been doing it for
eleven solid years; why stop now?� Gen.
Tommy Franks had "Shock and Awe"; Billy Cowher prefers Slop and
Slather.� Playing at home,
against a team with a first-year coach and a plethora of injuries, as well as
one of their very best players sitting out nearly all of the preseason in a
contract dispute, the Stillers should whip and dominate the Raiders.� SHOULD.��
But Billy's slop and slather will make this laugher far closer than it
should be.� Overall, expect a rabid
proliferation of slop and slather from both sides of the Stiller team, to
include pre-snap penalties, botched assignments, bumbling confusion, wasted
timeouts, and an overall team stupor.�
Frankly, there's no way in hell this Stillers team should lose to this
lowly, inept, injury-plagued Raiders team in Heinz Field, but, after all, this is
a Billy Cowher coached team.� Only
because they're playing at home, and only because they're playing a team as
inept, bumbling, and injury-plagued as the Raiders, the Stillers will prevail,
slopping out a thoroughly uninspiring, shoddy, sloppy 29-23 win.� Don�t look for many impressives ; just be
relieved with the win as the team gears up for the trip to division rival
Baltimore the following week. �
(Still Mill
and Stillers.com -- the only nationally read coverage on the Pittsburgh
Stillers that has accurately predicted the how's and the why's of the past 3
Stiller playoff losses�.)