2004
Game 1 Preview: Oakland @ Pittsburgh:
Oakland, as much as any team extant, illustrates the not-for-long aspect of today�s NFL.� Two years from the Super Bowl but coming off a 4-12 campaign, the Raiders enter 2004 with a new HC, a new DC, a new OC, 6 new D-Side starters and (including a resurrected Rich Gannon) 4 new O-side starters.� Their dink and dump O-concept is dead; instead, we can expect the Raiders to show the same throw long, run strong system that Norv Turner used with the Dallas triplets of the early 90�s. On the other side of the ball, Buddy�s boy Rob Ryan is the DC.� Double-R is straight out of that New England D-side think tank; off that, we can expect a set of morphing fronts ala the Pats 3-4, 4-3 with, maybe, a bit of Daddy�s 46 sprinkled in.� Beginning there:
When the Steelers have the ball:
If pre-season is any indication, the PS will attempt to establish the run in order to set up their play-action pass attack.� Can they?� Well, last year the Steelers� #31 run game did roll over the Raiders� #32 run D but, as noted, this is the not-for-long.� Oakland has moved to improve their run defense, importing NT Ted Washington and DE Bobby Hamilton, both of whom played under Ryan last season in NE.� Washington has been the league�s premier interior run-stuffer for years; Hamilton has been highly effective in that role outside.� You may remember him from the 2001 AFCC tilt when, lined up wide of Steeler TE Jermane Tuman, he contributed to the Pats absolutely flummoxing the Steelers� then #1 ranked run game.� Additionally, John Parella is back; Parella played just 5 games last season, a factor in the Raiders� run-D collapse.� A couple things to consider:
- Jeff Hartings had problems last season with DT on his nose; included in that, at KC vs. Ryan Sims and in Pittsburgh vs. Bolt Jamal Williams.� Washington is considerably better than either; more than likely, Washington is a 40 snap guy but Parella is no bargain either.� Advantage:� Raiders.
- The Steelers have shown as a left hand running team.� Warren Sapp is listed at RDE in the Raiders� 3-4 base.� As Sapp is a liability against the run, that match-up favors the Steelers� ground game but should the Raiders flip Sapp to Ross� side, inserting Hamilton or Parella opposite Marvel Smith, Oakland could earn a standoff.
Much has been made of Oakland�s conversion to the 3-4 but off their depth chart that looks like a mirage.� Consider:
- The Raiders have 9 D-linemen on their 53-man roster.� Of those 5 are 300# or more, 4 are 280-285#.� Looks like a team that can run either a 4-3 or 3-4 front.�
- The Raiders have just 7 LB on their 53-man roster.� Of those, 3 (Napoleon Harris, DeLawrence Grant and Sam Williams) are on Oakland�s injury report.� Certainly Williams and (probably) Grant figure to be out Sunday.� With just 4 healthy LB, and maybe 5 available, it doesn�t figure the Raiders will play much 3-4.�
In sum:
- The Raiders have 5 inside fat guys; of those, only Warren Sapp is a real pressure threat, although rookie Tommy Kelly did collect 2 pre-season sacks.
- 7 of the Raider�s 16 Front 7 players are in the 265-285# range.� That includes the 4 D-linemen noted above as well as DE-sized LB: Grant, Williams and KGB�s brother Akbar (AGB), all of whom go in the 265#-280# area.� That looks like decent personnel to rotate in for pressure packages and, whatever 3-4 variant Ryan has planned, it seems that his OLB factor down on the LOS, rather than in chase positions.�
- It�s clear the Raiders have the personnel to run a base variant of the 46: (3) DT covering the Steelers� interior O-line trio and 2 full-sized rushers (selected from the 7 noted above) on the edge.� IMO that will be their look of choice Sunday; a couple 2-gap DT (Washington and Parella) staying home while Sapp (either playing over Vincent or 3-tech inside Ross), Tyler Brayton and any of those DE/OLB play the run on their way to the QB.� That�s akin to the Steelers� OKIE schema but the personnel, design-wise, are not.
- The Raiders have just 4 conventionally sized LB, players in the 240-255# range.� Of those, Nap Harris is a rising player; Danny Clark and Tavian Smith are nominal starters but figure to be off as often as on, usually.� It�s worth noting that Harris missed pre-season in recovering from meniscus surgery; as he is questionable for Sunday, Clark, normally the second guy, may get the most minutes.� Regardless, this is one area the Steelers can exploit, isolating their receiving RB, Staley or Haynes, on the Raiders� very average cover LB.� Of course, this advantage evaporates when the Bus rolls on.�
As for the Raider secondary:
- In Charles Woodson and Philip Buchanon, the Raiders have CB capable of locking down a range of receivers.� #3 Denard Walker has started in Tennessee and Denver; he lost his job in Minny last year, but that may be attributed to hamstring problems.� Spike and Ward do figure to get their grabs but these Raider CB are far more likely to make a play off pressure than are their Steeler counterparts.
- Ray Buchanan replaces Rod Woodson at FS.� Buchanan began his career at that position before moving to CB, where he started for 9 seasons before sitting down last year in Atlanta.� Buchanan has slowed and he�s not big but he does give the Raiders a 3rd CB type, even in their base.� Since the Steelers don�t have a receiving TE, Buchanan�s (lack of) size shouldn�t be much of a factor.
- Two Raider SS, David Terrell and Marques Anderson, have started in the league.� Neither have much upside but youngsters Nnmadi Asomugha (CB) and Stuart Schweigart (FS) are coming on, if only in packages.� That said, it figures to be Terrell at SS this Sunday.� As is true for the Raider LB in space, this is a match-up advantage for Pittsburgh.� Again though, that TE generally describes tackle-eligible in these parts does reduce the Steelers� likely gain.�
The Steeler OKIE has been vulnerable to spread, multi-wide or multi-TE attacks.� It figures that Oakland�s OKIE (34 or 46) may be too.� However, the Steelers don�t have a receiving TE package; their twin TE sets are essentially run packs.� They do have a couple WR who can work under and a couple RB who can catch it; that quartet promises to move the ball, especially considering that the Raiders� coverage LB and SS personnel aren�t good.� Against that, the fact that Oakland�s CB can single up some, allowing a range of under coverage options.� Foremost, IMO, the Raider CB may force the Steeler wideout outboard, with Ray Buchanan looking to jump underneath.� Wrapping up this side:
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- Ted Washington figures to win inside; the PS figure to have problems running between the tackles.
- The PS can run off tackle (left anyway), especially at Sapp and Brayton.� However, the PS has yet to establish a right side run game; should Oakland flip their pressure personnel (to the Steelers�) right and their run-stuffers left, well, we�ll see if the PS can cope.
- The PS top 4 receivers: Ward, Spike, ARE and Staley, can exploit the Raiders� cover LB and SS.� That may be their best route to a ball control, TOP-winning type attack.��
- This is a big game for both teams.� Big plays win big games.� In that respect, the key match-up figures to involve Charles Woodson when singled up on Spike.� If preparation means much, Burress should win.
When the Raiders have the ball:
Last spring, the Raiders used their first two picks to draft O-linemen Robert Gallery and Jake Grove.� Grist for Lebeau�s blitz mill?� Yeah, if they were playing but in fact neither figure to start Sunday.� Instead, the Raiders will open with long-timers Barry Sims, Frank Middleton, Adam Treu and Ron Stone along with the gigantic Langston Walker, who is replacing Lincoln Kennedy.� These guys might get beat but they won�t get fooled.� That so, it figures to be man on man and, past Porter vs. Sims, or KVO vs. Sims/Middleton, the PS, rushing, really don�t have a match-up advantage anywhere.
The Steelers� D-side dilemma looks to be unchanged from the past two seasons.� That is, their base defense is stout against the run but has problems matching up with twin TE or spread attacks.� When they�ve gone to the packages, their front 4 has had problems both pressuring and playing the run.�� It may be that the emergence of the twin Ks, Kirschke and Keisel, will improve that last set.� We�ll see.� Beyond that:
- Both the Raiders and Steelers are beat up at LB.� The Raiders woes were chronicled above; the Steelers are coming in with Bell questionable and Clark Haggans asked to test his broken hand against Langston Walker.� The difference is that the Raiders don�t emphasis their LB unit, but the Steelers do.
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If Bell can�t go, or can�t play effectively, the Steelers� interior pressure evaporates.� In that case, we can expect the Raiders to widen their O-line splits, spreading the Steelers� NT to DE gap, and try to run up inside some.� If Bell can go, then the Raiders may well spread the field, (3-wide, twin-TE, whatever) and, off Cowher�s comments this week, effectively take #97 out of the game.� As for Haggans, well, base or package, I expect he�ll get little done against Walker.
IMO, the Raiders will spread it out early because, beyond question, in the spread, Oakland can establish mismatches all over the field.� Here�s the thing:
- Oakland has 3 WR 6�-2� and up.� They are: Jerry Porter, Doug Gabriel and Ronald Curry.� All three can run; the latter two are 2nd year players; typically, players improve the most from their rook campaign to year 2.� Coming into camp, Curry was regarded as the likely #3; however, Gabriel may have seized that role on the basis of 3 pre-season receiving TD.� Several were big plays, including one of 87 yards.
- Oakland has two big athletic TE in Doug Jolley and Teyo Johnson.� So far, the Steelers� prime coverage backer, James Farrior, hasn�t shown much against TE; nor has the Steeler safety tandem.� Either Jolley or Johnson may flex; the nominal starter here, Roland Williams, is an in-line ball control type.
- Oakland has 3 RB who can catch the ball.� Of those, one (Justin Fargas) can go the distance.� Like Gabriel, Fargas had 3 pre-season TD; like Gabriel, Fargas is entering his second season, presumably the move-up campaign.
Commenting on the draft class last spring, especially the influx of big WR and small DB, Detroit GM Matt Millen said something to the effect: �we�re trying to cover monsters with midgets.�� Now, Millen has yet to establish in his new role but in fact that is exactly what the PS hope to accomplish Sunday.� Consider:
- Showing the emphasis on player development that caused the Rooney�s to give him extension #4, Coach Cowher has busted Ike Taylor, most likely to match up, out of both the dime and nickel packages.� Considering that he�s not returning KO, and no longer is an ST flyer, it is even money that Taylor will be inactive for Game 1.�
- Of the top 6 Steeler DB, only Chad Scott tops 6�-0� and, as we�ve seen, Scott has issues.
- DT and Troy are 5�-10� or less.
- Rico Colclough, the slight, and short slow Willie Williams, the new #27, complete the Steeler dime.
Gannon is an accurate passer, if he has time.� If he has time, he�ll get the ball up where his guys can get it.� IMO, he�ll have time a plenty Sunday.� The starting D-line constitutes the strength of the Steeler defense; Kendrell Bell is their only interior pass rusher of (potential) consequence.� Spread out, the Raiders can reduce one and eliminate the other.� IMO, the Raiders will spread it out early; if they get a lead, they�ll pound it late.� The Steeler O will have to match score for score; if they don�t, they�ll be in all pass catch-up mode and, last season, we saw what that was worth.� If their O-line is up to it, (that is, if last year�s debacle was really all injury related), then both teams may go up and down the field all day long.� If not, well, Oakland�s Front 7 depth advantage and their playmaking ability at CB make it far more likely that they�ll get some stops than will the Steelers� D-side, thin upfront and diminutive behind.��� The PS can pull it out if their ST can get some field position, or if they win the takeaway battle.� If not, not.���
Attachment:
Last year�s stat analysis over the Week(s) in Review gave the following, ordered per WF (Winning Factor).
- +2 takeaways:� Huge; the Raiders DB figure to make more plays than the Steelers.� However, the PS may be able to offset that in ST.�
- Red Zone trips:� A field position factor.� Again ST factor; it should be acknowledged that the Raiders� Janokowski and Lechler have bigger legs than their PS counterparts.�
- +2 sacks:� The Raiders� superior Front 7 depth may factor here, especially in the late going.
- Rushing attempts:� Attempts, even more than rush yards or 100-yard rushers (studied in �01 and �02), do factor; that is why Eddie George is still in the league.� Although the PS don�t figure to get much done inside, they must stay with the run; hopefully, they�ll be effective in the off-tackle area.
- Adjusted total yards:� Offensive totals + ST � penalties.� Last season, both the PS and Raiders were among the league�s most penalized teams. Otherwise, well, the Steelers figure to lose the total yard battle and, again, must make that up on ST.��