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Pittsburgh @ Tampa Bay Pregame

December 20, 2002 by Steel Phantom

Pittsburgh @ Tampa Bay Pre-game:

Pittsburgh @ Tampa Bay Pre-game:

 

I skipped CC�s press conference Tuesday, having already received a near lethal dose of gibberish courtesy of the journalists who appear Sunday evening on the sports chat put out by KDKA.� There, some ventured the notion that, if the Steelers could just stay close into the 4th quarter at Tampa, then they could claim some kind of moral victory.�

 

There are no moral victories, at least not in professional sports.

 

That stuff is for kids; sure, sports build character, or so it said but, really, everyone working for the PS is all grown up, or should be.� They can all drive; they can all drink, though, of course, they should not do so simultaneously.� They can all cast ballots for the candidate of their choice who then just might send them, or their contemporaries, into harm�s way, perhaps to kill or perhaps to die.�

 

Those are heavy stakes; the Steelers play a kid�s game but their compensation is in cash, or celebrity, not character.� Character does count on the football field, just as in any other, but at this point what they�ve got in that department is what they�ve got.� That�ll get measured Monday and we�ll see then which passage from the Gospel of McKinley Morganfield, a.k.a. Muddy Waters, does apply.� It may be I�m a Man; it may be, Mannish Boy.�

 

It�s winning time now, just like last week.� However, while the Panthers came in only to perform an impressive version of the Washington Generals, the Steelers� next opponent has motivation matching their own.� It was fairly clear that Carolina was playing out the string.� How else could you fathom:

 

  • Mike Minter congratulating Brent Alexander on his INT?
  • Brentson Buckner�s solicitous concern for the Bus after he�d nearly blown out his knee courtesy, again, of the Heinz grass-guru?
  • Rodney Peete, grinning and shucking after getting stripped and pulled down for the 6th time?

 

I can appreciate Buck�s concern for a colleague, and former teammate, who had, apparently, just dodged a career-threatening injury.� Whatever Minter and Peete were thinking eludes me; the time for congrats is after the game, not while the outcome is in doubt.� The best that can be said of those Panthers is that they�re a couple of really amiable guys; the worst, that they just mailed it in.

 

In contrast to their divisional patsies, we can expect the Bucs to be fully committed.� Though their overall record, 11-3, does trump the Steelers� 8-5-1, in fact, both teams are in about the same kind of shape with respect to their playoff prospects.� Philadelphia has the wheel in the NFC; the Eagles are 11-3 and have beaten the Bucs; further, Philly�s 10-0 NFC mark is out of reach, as T-Bay is at 8-3.� To have any chance at #1, the Bucs will have to win out, all the while hoping that the AJ Freeley Express finally jumps the rail.�

 

Green Bay is 11-3 too; however, their 9-3 NFC mark is within reach and the Bucs did baffle Favre in the course of beating down the Pack a few weeks ago.� Regardless of what the Eagles do, the Bucs have a solid shot at #2 and, considering their abysmal past at Lambeau that has to be their minimum acceptable berth.� Again though, that all vanishes if the Bucs should falter in the stretch.�

 

Tampa Bay is a bad cold weather team currently trailing two teams in the playoff sweeps, both from cold weather cities.� Tie that to their 0-6-playoff road mark; tie that to their constant regular season failures at Lambeau; tie that to their early season loss in Philadelphia and it is pretty clear what they�re playing for.� The clock is running on the Bucs, especially for their veteran-laden defense.� The time is now in Tampa Bay and, for sure, while the weather may be warm and beguiling when the Steelers visit Monday Night, the Bucs will come out hot, in an entirely inhospitable fashion.�

 

Be that as it might, T-Bay is far from invincible.� They have played (4) teams that, to this point, appear to be playoff bound.� Those are: New Orleans, Atlanta, Green Bay and Philadelphia.� They have beaten the Pack but got bounced in Philly; they have swept the Falcons (thoroughly stifling Vick on both occasions) but have, in turn, been swept by the Saints.� The last must be especially troubling since that seems to create a prospect wherein the Bucs actually end as a wildcard with New Orleans squeaking in as, say, #3 or #4 and champ of the NFC South.�

 

The Bucs are 3-3 against quality opposition and are looking at something between #1 and #5 in the NFC rounds.� The Steelers haven�t quite that margin; they�ve got to win their division or sit down.� #4 plays but they�ve got no shot at #5.� Like the Bucs, the Steelers have played (6) games against teams with any legit playoff chance; those are: NE, Oakland, New Orleans, Indianapolis, Atlanta and Tennessee.� They are, as we know, 1-4-1 in those encounters.� Unlike the Bucs though, who have been close in every loss, the Steelers have gotten their balls beat off three times.� Still, they are just a day�s worth of bad Xs and Os from having beaten the Falcons; imagine that, and the B&G are 2-4 against playoff types.� Then, should they best the chalk Monday, they, like Tampa Bay, could claim a 3-4 mark against similar caliber opposition.� That�s it; the Steelers are merely an act of imagination plus an entirely uncertain win from equity with the mighty!�

 

Yeah, that�s it.

 

For years now, Tampa Bay has had a dominant defense.� In that period, they constantly have come up short.� That�s because their offense was, not just mediocre, but abysmal.� On the big boat that was the Buccaneer playoff craft, the D-side was the spar, the sails and, of course, all the bristling cannon while the offense was little more than deck varnish.

 

That�s why Tampa paid a pirate king�s ransom to get Jon Gruden in from Oakland; since even Coach Cowher seems to understand that the Steelers will be facing a transplant version of the offense that so humbled them in Game 2, let�s skip all that and examine some salient differences:

 

  • Oakland�s O-line is very big and very good.� Tampa Bay�s O-line is compact-size (by NFL standards) and, well, not so great.� The Bucs have allowed (30) sacks and rushed for just 3.6 YPC.

 

  • Rich Gannon is fairly mobile; Brad Johnson has shown, over a period of years, the same kind of sub-par movement skills that T-Max has exhibited in the past few weeks.

 

  • Michael Pittman is no Charlie Garner.

 

Turning to the cast of characters on that side:

 

  • The Buc OT are highly questionable.� LOT Roman Oben was drafted in �96 within that vast tackle wasteland that stretched between Willie Anderson, taken about 10 overall, and Jon Runyan, taken in the top of the 4th.� You may remember that Jamain Stephens wandered therein.� The NYG couldn�t get rid of Oben fast enough; following the �99 season, they dumped him and brought in the then elderly Lomas Brown.� Between NY and Florida, Oben spent two undistinguished years with the O-line bereft Brownies; Brown, now an antique, now backs Oben in Buc-land.� The ROT is Kenyatta Walker, this man is a talent but we all remember that Porter shredded him last year.� Much of the Steelers� success in this game will depend on Gildon doing the same.

 

  • OC Jeff Christy heads up the interior corps; like Todd Steussie (whom we saw last week), Christy was one of four Pro Bowl O-linemen playing during the Viking�s short-lived glory at the head of the Randy Era.� Like Steussie, Christy�s best days are behind him.� ROG Cosey Coleman is a physical presence but has yet to truly distinguish himself.� LOG Kerry Jenkins, a Jet refuge, is a pretty solid guy.� This group is better than the Panther�s trio but they�re by no means dominating.��

 

  • The WR trio, Keyshawn Johnson, Keenan McCardell and Joe Jurevicius all are possession types.� Johnson and Joe are both big guys, McCardell is small, but quick.� On balance, this is as competent a trio as the Steelers have faced; however, none of these men offer any vertical component.

 

  • The Bucs have the capacity to go two TE with Ken Dilger and Ricky Dudley.� Dilger is a solid performer; Dudley is a big play waiting to happen but, given his attention deficiencies, that play could go either way.�� However, the Steelers� problems with TE are well known; this is an area where the Bucs have personnel superior to what Oakland brought in Game 2.

 

  • The Bucs start Michael Pittman at RB and bring Mike Alstott to chew clock.� Both are okay but just okay; they are no threat to do much on the ground against the Steeler base.� However, Alstott is the kind of guy that could absolutely smash the Steeler dime line, at least as that was constituted in the early going.� It is worth noting that these RB can catch the ball; Pittman is 2nd on the team with (56) grabs, Alstott has (33).� Both match or surpass Jurevicius (33), Dilger (30) and Dudley (13).�

 

  • QB Brad Johnson was a Pro Bowl player in Washington but was let go in FA; previously, he had played productively in Minnesota.� He was not the guy Gruden wanted, as both Rob Johnson and Shaun King are more mobile, but he has seized the job.� At present, Johnson has a QB rating of 92.9; he has surpassed 3000 yards and, most impressively he has (22) TD and just (6) picks.�� Johnson is questionable for this game; if he can�t go, it�ll be Shaun King who, in 2000, his only year as a starter, threw for 2700 yards and ran for 370 or so; he had (18) TD against (13) picks.� However, the Bucs brought on BJ pre-2001 exactly because King�s work was considered inadequate.� Of course, that was then and now King is in a system where his talents might be better utilized.� It is worth noting that Shaun came on as a rookie in �99, then replacing Trent Dilfer, and did enough to get the Bucs to an NFCC tilt against the eventual champion Rams.� Throughout then, King directed a dumbed-down O-side but, again, that was then.� Now, well, we just don�t know.

 

Keys:� The parallel between the Buc and Steeler QB duos is striking.� Both Maddox and Johnson throw well; both are virtually immobile.� Both Stewart and King run well, both have led their teams to the threshold, both have deficiencies passing.� In my judgment, Gruden is overstating Johnson�s injuries exactly as Cowher kept mum before the Jacksonville game.� For the reasons given previously, this is a big game for T-Bay; I think Johnson will be on the field.� If that is so, then the Steelers must:

 

    1. Get on the QB:� Last year, they sacked BJ (10) times.� Tampa Bay had a different kind of offense then but their O-line is, more or less, the same.� Johnson has been highly effective this year, especially lately with (15) TD against (1) INT in the season�s second half.� However, in (3) losses, BJ went down (12) times; he has been the starter in (9) wins, during which he went down a total of (10) times.� That�s (4) sacks per loss and (1.11) per win; you figure it out.

 

    1. Play some press: �The Gruden attack is designed that the ball come out quickly, before any rush can arrive.� The Steelers preferred Cover 3 is ill-suited to defend that style; the CB are back and, as we saw against Oakland, the underneath is open all night long.� The fact is that the Bucs don�t have anyone who can run away from the Steeler CB; that so, there is everything to gain by playing aggressively.�

 

    1. Exact a toll on receivers crossing underneath: Underneath crossing routes are the dynamo driving Gruden-ball; far too often in Game 2, we saw Raider WR coming under unimpeded.� The results were predictably poor.� It�s winning time, take an early penalty if necessary but when the Bucs do come under, especially on those routes don�t get past 5-yards from the LOS, beat �em down.

 

    1. Keep their playmakers on the field in crunch time:� That includes Kendrell Bell AND Clark Haggans; it does not include Lee Flowers.� The Steelers have to believe that their CB troika can match with the Buc WR trio.� The issue then is the Buc TE and RB vs. either the Steeler safeties or some LB combination to include Porter, Bell and Farrior.� In their packages, the Steelers are already using Porter as a faux-safety; pull Bell and, in effect, they are fielding (4) safeties and, at most, (2) legit pass rushers.� That�s just dumb especially considering that any of those Steeler LB are a better match against the TE/RB than any Steeler safety, save Logan.� This game is all about pressure on the QB; when Porter is far off the line and Bell is entirely off the field, the Steelers� opportunities go way down.� In contrast, with (4) LB in the package, the Steelers could play straight up or, say, drop Haggans on the snap and run Porter/Bell through.� While it may true that the dime is the ideal package against multi-wide sets, the fact remains that the Steelers do not have the secondary personnel to play this effectively.� What they�ve got is what they�ve got; hopefully, we�ll see their best on MNF.

 

    1. Let the big dog eat:� I think we saw last Sunday that Casey Hampton is the Steelers� Big Blue Ox; Hampton, not Jason Gildon, is a powerful bull rusher.� Also, Hampton is the Steelers� best interior run defender.� With Hampton out, we saw the Raiders (and Titans) create some deep, ugly gouges in the Steelers� dime line; truly, since the Bucs can�t get deep, if the Steelers can control the middle, well, that won�t leave T-Bay much room in which to operate.�

 

The Bucs are beatable on the O-side and the Steelers do have the D-group personnel to win that portion.� Whether that is effectively deployed is a different matter.� Conversely, the Bucs are very sound on the other side of the ball and, to win there, the Steelers� O-unit will need their best, most efficient effort.� Tampa Bay�s salient strength rests in three areas:

 

  • Pressure from their Front 4:� Well, two really to include LDT Warren Sapp and RDE Simone Rice.� Tampa Bay has (41) sacks this year; that pair has accounted for (22).� Career-wise Rice�s (77) and Sapp�s (72) trump Gildon�s (70).� Gildon came in �94, Sapp �95 and Rice �96 though, in fairness, it should be noted that the Steeler sack-meister did not start until �96.� This year, the Bucs 3rd guy is back-up DL Ellis Wyms with (4.5).� Starting LDE Greg Spires has (3.5).� It is worth noting that T-Bay�s starting LB trio has a total of (3); it is apparent that the Bucs pressure depends mainly on their Big Two.

 

  • Turnovers:� T-Bay is, the last I looked, 2nd in the league in takeaways, behind Green Bay.� The Bucs have gotten at least (1) in each of their last (39) games; that is an NFL-best.

 

  • Execution:� Tampa Bay has spent (3) 1st round picks on their Front 7 and picked up another, Rice, via FA. While one, RDT Anthony McFarland is out, it is apparent that the Bucs do have talent upfront.� However, save Kelly, their DB are 3rd round and below guys and, excluding Derrick Brooks, that holds for their LB too.� These players aren�t overwhelming physical talents but they are capable and they are well coached.� That is evident in that:

 

    1. Against Green Bay, the Bucs got ahead and then played most of the 2nd half rushing (3) and dropping (8) into coverage.� They could do that because both Rice and Sapp, split wide outside either tackle, got pressure and because those Buc smallish LB are, effectively, big safeties.� Under some pressure, the great Favre threw (4) INT into the Bucs� C2, (6) under.� Of those, two could be attributed to the Pack WR. The last two were horrible throws; on one, Favre had to be counting on some alien abduction to clear three TB defenders who had his target bracketed top, under and outside.

 

    1. Against Michael Vick, the Bucs went Cover 3 and played (8) in the box.� Considering the pedestrian talents of the Falcon WR, three was plenty.� Certainly, Vick is the guy but, in two games against this group, he could get just 16/37 for 162 yards including (1) TD and (1) INT.� It�s worth noting that, despite his great escape ability, the Bucs knocked Mike out of their first contest.

 

The Bucs have thwarted a great pure passer who is the best QB in the game and they have thwarted the best athlete now playing the position.� That�s all due to concentrated greatness upfront yoked to a sound system behind.� Certainly Sapp and, probably, Rice and Brooks are Canton-bound.� Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly have some tremendous numbers but I don�t think they�re elite, lockdown CB.� Rather, they�re products of TB�s top to bottom commitment to their D-side philosophy.� Just as certain QB fit certain teams but not others, so could Barber, Kelly and Lynch, not to mention LB like Al Singleton and Sheldon Quarles, easily be over-exposed elsewhere.

 

Keys:

 

  1. Run the ball:� Tampa Bay is swift but small, by NFL standards.� Their DE go about 265# and their LB aren�t much bigger than safeties like Tank Williams.� In TB last year, the Bus rolled for over 140 as the Steelers took care of TOP with some 220 yards on the ground.� True, the Bus is a ripped-up groin, a bad MCL and about 20# beyond that glorious day and, true, Amos, with his bad thumb, is a fumble waiting to happen.� Still, you�ve got to believe that the Steeler RB, beat-up as they are, still can bring what the Detroit Lions scat back duo of Aveion Cason and Raphael Cooper carried onto the field last Sunday.� Against TB in Detroit, Cason was 10/62 and Cooper 8/50; the Lions rushed 26/144 with just 22:54 TOP.� Detroit had runs of 17, 40, 16 and 18 yards; obviously, they didn�t grind it out but they did make some plays.� Consider that coming into the game, Cason was 14/25 and Cooper 1/1; from that pedigree, it is apparent that the Steelers could expect roughly the same production from, say, Haynes (if he could go) and McCray.� Two non-entities had success running on the Bucs last week; presumably, the Steelers can expect the same.

 

If the Steelers can run, they will force TB to put a safety in the box.� This kills the C2 and, single high, the Bucs have no safety that can give help over the top against Plax.� There�s your big play; there�s your game.

 

  1. Take care of Tommy: Of course, that means get Rice and Sapp blocked.� When the Bucs are in a 4-man front, Pittsburgh should handle Sapp; after all, they do have (3) 1st round picks guard to guard.� Sapp has made a career splitting double teams but few squads have spent such a premium on the O-line interior, as has the B&G.� Rice is a different matter; it would nice to believe Gandy can handle him but, in reality, Gandy has been beaten by lesser players (Posey and Rucker) recently.� I believe Wayne will need help, and it is Sapp�s hidden virtue that this must come from a TE or RB.

 

When the Bucs are in their 3-man front, Sapp will be wide of Marvel Smith.� Quite obviously, Smith will need some help; possibly, Simmons can get out.� If not, TB will be covering (4) with (8) and, in that case, you might want to run the ball.� This suggests a single-back set and 4-wide; that suggests that Tuman has no role this week.� �

 

Instead, Fu could be the guy.� God knows he is well rested.� Fu has power, some speed and good hands; he has the size to pick up a blitz.� Presuming he wasn�t drowned in the tub, Fu might earn his check this week.�� Considering the health of the other RB (ref. #1 above) now is the time.

 

3.      Take care of the ball:� (1) turnover is insignificant, (2) can be offset; however, of (5) games that the Steelers have lost, they�ve turned it over (5) times thrice, with (4) on another occasion.� Tampa lives off takeaways; in fact, their D-side has brought back (5) for scores.� Turnovers happen but for example, the (2) INT Houston got didn�t bother me nearly so much as (3) unforced fumbles they covered.� Sure, both picks went back but hell, Glenn is on the varsity.� He made a couple plays; he is a player.� The Bucs have some players too; they�ll make plays too but, to win, the O-side can�t give them any.�

 

  1. Save the trickeration:� I understand that misdirection is useful against a speed defense.� I�d point out though that the Bucs are a veteran group and very well coached.� Misdirection is one thing; the inside flips and throwbacks are another.� One day, one of those is going back.� Note that this is not intended to exclude a WR pass option off a reverse.

 

  1. Expect the unexpected:� I wouldn�t be surprised to see TB come with a 5-man front, pulling a LB and inserting Wyms over Faneca.� This would single up Sapp and/or Rice; this would mimic the success Cleveland had stopping the Steeler run game in Game 3.� This would preserve the C2 and that could take Plax out of the equation.� We�ll see.

 

Special team notes:

 

  • RB Aaron Strecker is the closest thing to speed on the TB O-side.� Strecker has rushed 26/176, caught 13/69 and averaged 25.8 on KR.� Strecker opened with a 60+ KR against the Lions.�

 

  • The Steelers would be well advised to get LB James Harrison on the field in coverage.� At present, DE Brett Keisel is their fastest Front 7 backup covering kicks.� That�ll change if Harrison hits the field; I suppose he�s in for Haynes on ST and that�s all good.

 

Summary:

 

Coach Cowher may have had his team motivated last week but given the Panthers� laugh-it-off mode, as exemplified in the opening paragraphs here, his Carolina-grade must be marked as INC.� We�ll get a better indication Monday night.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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