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5 x 6

April 23, 2004 by Steel Phantom

5 x 11:

5 x 6:�

 

Following the Steelers� avowed mode, which identifies (5) players per slot, here are some that would constitute value for the Steelers.� The table below indicates five for each of those Saturday rounds.� When the Steelers� have completed their Day One play, I�ll work up something for Day Two.� Why six?� Well, in the event of trade, I�m adding deep round values.��� Trade scenarios include but certainly aren�t limited too:

 

  • Down to 1.17, with Denver:� The Broncos moved from 1.24, presumably to acquire some skill position player.� In the unlikely event that Kellen Winslow remains on the board, the PS may move down.� Denver has two 2nd round picks; the first, #41 overall wouldn�t be included but the 2nd, #54, may be in play.�

 

  • Down to 1.27 with Tennessee:� Like Denver, the Titans have two 2nd round picks, #42 and #57 overall.� In this case, #42 would be required.� The Titans need a prime time pass rusher; they may be interested in a Will Smith or Kenchi Udeze. �Evidently, the Steelers are not.

 

  • Down from 2.45:� For CB, value is in the deep 2nd IMO; depending on the drop here, the PS might expect a middling 3rd.

 

No doubt, difference makers reside at the top of class; however, if the QB, CB and, say, Will Smith, should be off the board then the PS certainly would be well advised to move towards value at need spots, say RT which they�ve ignored to date.� Whether or not they can do a deal is another matter since, certainly, more teams are looking downward than up. �

 

Legend:

 

  • (Player name) denotes value at the spot but likely to be gone.

 

 

 

Offense

Defense

Remarks

1.11

(Phil Rivers, QB)

Ben Roethlisberger, QB

(Sean Taylor, FS)

Will Smith, OLB/DE

(DeAngelo Hall, CB)

Kenechi Udeze, DE

Vince Wilfork, DT

According to ESPN, Shawn Andrews is making a late, lumbering run up the Steelers� board.�

Trade down in the 1st

Vernon Carey, OT

Rashaun Woods, WR

 

Tommy Harris, DE

Ahmad Carroll, CB

Chris Gamble, CB

Steven Jackson, RB would be value too but I don�t see the PS dealing down to RB.� No doubt, the FO values Shawn Andrews higher than Carey; this board reflects my personal preference.

2.45

(Ben Watson, TE)

Chris Snee, OG/OC

 

Randy Starks, DE

(Sean Jones, FS)

(Jason Babin, LB)

Igor Olshansky, DE

Dontarrious Thomas, LB

Matt Ware, FS

Colbert�s PC comments suggest the PS will be looking at the raw CB in this round.� Increasingly though, it looks like value may be at DE where Starks is falling and Olshansky rising.

Deep 2nd:

(Kelly Butler, RT)

Keary Colbert, WR

Tatum Bell, RB

 

Joey Thomas, CB

Kevin Smith, CB

Derrick Strait, CB

 

Eventuates with a Denver type deal; PS might draft OT, DE and CB thru R2.�

3.76

Kris Wilson, TE/FB/WR

Nate Dorsey, OT

Ricardo Colclough, DB

(Matthias Askew, DL)

Travis LaBoy, LB

Tim Anderson, DE

Colclough is representative of the 9th to 11th CB; mysteriously, many have this prospect considerable higher, including the PS FO.�

Deep 3rd

Derrick Hamilton, WR

Ben Hartsock, TE

Michael Turner, RB

 

(Marquise Hill, DE)

Reggie Torbor, OLB

Junior Siavii, NT

Eventuates with a trade down only; 3.76 is somewhat too high for these players, IMO.

 

Parsing the Cowbert pre-draft PC:

 

�Insiders, capitalized or not, have it that Kevin Colbert and WL Cowher are warring on the Steelers first pick, with Cowher wanting immediate help at CB while Colbert, contract extended, is looking to QB, seeing a franchise there and a post-Cowher paradise to follow.� Well, maybe so but there�s little in the PC to support that.� Here�s Colbert on the CB:

 

Question:� Talk about DeAngelo Hall and Dunta Robinson and are they the top cornerbacks?

Kevin Colbert: I really don�t want to get into specific guys. We can�t really talk a lot about specifics and who is good at what, and who is weaker. I would rather not talk about individuals. Obviously, those two are top guys. We are certainly aware of them. We had Dunta in here for an extra visit. I think for corners, it is unusually deep. It is unusually deep for receivers and for corners. But individually, I would rather not talk about certain guys.

Question:� Is it reasonable to expect that you will get a quality corner with your second round pick?

Kevin Colbert: I think the depth is good enough that you could get some starters out of the second round. Now, they might not be starters in year one or two, but these are some of the kids that maybe have not played and still have a lot of upside to them. Really you can stretch it on down to the third round. There is quality depth there. They may not be front liners, but all the starters in the league don�t have to be first rounders. This year, it is unusual for that position. With that position, you are usually searching for guys, for whatever reason. It has been helped by some of the underclassmen that have come out. A kid like Chris Gamble, just to point out, he is a junior but technically as a corner, he has only played a year and a half because he spent so much time on offense last year. He is by far not a finished product. Those are some of the things we are seeing.

 

Certainly, that suggests Mr. Colbert is entertaining positions other than CB in R1 but what of WLC?� Well:

 

Question:� There has been a lot of talk of you drafting a quarterback. Can you talk about the pros and cons of getting one in the first round?

Coach Cowher: Certainly, if you are picking a guy in the first round, you feel pretty good about him. Let me just say this about the position. We still feel good about where we are with Tommy Maddox. Certainly with what took place a year ago coming off the previous year where he kind of came in for Kordell (Stewart) and had the season that he had and really finished the season strong with a really strong game in Tennessee and then coming back last year. While there were some inconsistencies, certainly with Tommy�s play there were some inconsistencies, with our whole offensive play. He did not have the same offensive line as the previous year. I think consequently, he never really got in synch. That certainly should not all be put on Tommy�s shoulders.� I think Tommy is a quality quarterback. I think the thing we are looking at, as Kevin eluded to, is that sitting at 11, we need to put ourselves in a position that we take the best football player. We don�t like to think that we are going to be up this high that often. So, if you are up this high, then the benefit is to have an opportunity to pick and get a top player. From 26 to 16, you are still getting the sixteenth player. We are sitting at 11, so I think we are not going to bypass a good football player, regardless of the position. Certainly, the speculation of quarterback is always that because it is always a very high profile position. But we certainly feel good about Tommy Maddox.

Question:� Would there be less speculation about a quarterback if you were back at number 21?

Coach Cowher: I don�t think there is any question about that. I think that is probably why a lot of it has been created, because of that. �

 

QB may be in play at 1.11, even for WLC, though that predicate <created> as in �probably why a lot of it has been created�, does suggest some reluctance.� Funny thing though, while Coach has it that �we don�t like to think that we are going to be up this high that often�, the fact is that the Steelers were at 1.13 in 1999, 1.08 in 2000 and 1.16 in 2001.� Add this year�s 1.11 and, in fact, the Steelers have averaged 1.12 for four of the past six seasons.� Little wonder then that Colbert is looking beyond the Cowher horizon.�

 

Colbert is down with a R1 QB, WLC less so but I�d bet both would pass on Roethlisberger.� Big Ben is a tools guy; Drew Henson is a tools guy too.� The Steelers did not spend a 2005 3rd to secure Henson; it�s highly unlikely they�ll spend a 1.11 to get a similar type prospect.� As for recent talk that the PS would move to 1.06 to draft Phil Rivers (let alone Roethlisberger), well, given the Henson thing, and the Polamalu thing that�s just crazy talk.�

 

Presumably, either Cow or Bert would draft CB at 1.11 but (probably) both long since have concluded that DeAngelo Hall will be long gone.� The same may be said for Dunta Robinson, who, in recent days, has been slotted for the Texans at 1.10 in both ESPN and GBN mox.� I doubt that, I think Robinson will be on the board (but wouldn�t be real value at the spot).� Regardless, almost certainly, if (3) QB should be drafted in the top 10, (3) DB would not; the inverse is true too.�

 

Figure the first case, (3) QB and (2) DB so, as noted here long ago the value cluster will be at D-line, though there is no evidence that the Steelers are looking in that direction.� In sum, QB is doubtful, D-line is not in play; clearly, DB was slipped back into R2/R3, towards all that (imagined) depth.� What�s left?� Well, Mr. Colbert elocutes on the class of 2004:�

 

Kevin Colbert:� ��For 2004, we think it is unusually deep, especially in certain positions. I think the running backs, the quarterbacks, the wide receivers is probably the best group of receivers I have seen in 20 years. Tight ends are a little top heavy. The offensive line is not a deep position, it is a little concerning actually. With the defensive backs, the safeties are a little thin, but we think it is unusually good for corners this year as well.� Linebackers are probably better inside than outside. ���

 

And, on the perils of prospect evaluation:

 

Question: Which positions are easiest to evaluate? Which are the toughest in terms of projections in the NFL?

Kevin Colbert: That is hard. I don�t think there is any one that is easier than the others. I think probably the offensive linemen are more predictable. You see them in similar situations although with the spread offenses you see much more pass blocking than there is run blocking. Sometimes the secondary people are a little difficult to judge because they may not be covering the same types of receivers that they will cover in the NFL. Sometimes there scheme is not as sophisticated. I think the hardest thing that has cropped up in recent years is with the juniors, and now we�re into sophomores and even the freshmen being involved in the draft. We are getting a lot of inexperienced guys. That is a little scary. We talked about some guys the other day and some of these guys have only started for a year and maybe they are true juniors, or true redshirt sophomores. They just have not played a lot. I think that has been a trend that we are seeing more, less experience is coming up. That is a little scary because I think these kids are going to have more difficulty adjusting and they are less predictable. The more we see a guy play in general, the better chance we are going to have to predict whether he can play or not. Again, with these young kids coming out, that has become more difficult.

 

Okay, per Mr. Colbert, the DB positions are tough to evaluate but despite that, he has concluded there is plenty at the position in this class.� In contrast, Mr. Colbert has it that O-linemen are most easily rated and that this class is sub-par.� Whether you believe the FO operates on a consensual basis, or that their so-called consensus is mere masquerade with Coach Cowher truly at the helm, all this dovetails towards: OT first and then CB.� On form, that�s going to be Andrews and Colclough, as Len Pasquarelli had it in ESPN�s live mock draft:

 

� If Rivers is gone, offensive tackle Shawn Andrews, on whom the Steelers have done a ton of research the past two weeks, is a real possibility, as is a potential trade-down.�

 

Just as Mr. Colbert suggested in that PC:�����

 

Kevin Colbert:� Really, with pick number 11, there has been tons of speculation, tons of rumors, and tons of predictions. I think we are going to have a lot of choices at 11. We are real confident. We think there are at least 11 good players. We feel real confident about that. I think you can probably really stretch it down to 15. If we get into a trade down scenario, I think we could probably go all the way down into the middle of the bottom half and still come away with a pretty good player. We are very open to anything. I think we are most likely to sit where we are and pick. But trading down will definitely be a possibility. I think we are probably less likely to trade up.

 

Maybe not, after all, Houston, NYJ, probably the Bills and certainly SF are looking to move too.� Still, presuming Rivers, Taylor and Hall aren�t on the board (a real good bet), the Steelers will try to move down.� That�s the consensus deal; WLC gets a RT; Mr. Colbert gets �a pretty good player� in the �middle of the bottom half�, which, by the way is 24/25.�� Last week, I�d suggested the PS probably would draft Dunta Robinson; however, long ago, this:�

 

� The Steelers are now, as they were last off-season, ill provisioned to get into the FA market.� That being so, the Steelers, as constituted, will draft for need, as they did last spring.� That being so, as constituted, their 1st round pick will be Vernon Carey.� Maybe, they move down a bit and pick up a mid-rounder in the process but regardless, short of a major renovation, Carey will be the guy. Write it down. �

 

Money for Nuthin� 15 Feb. 2004

 

Factor with that this from GBN, on veteran CB Mike McKenzie:

 

��there does appear to be a little movement regarding disgruntled Packer CB Mike McKenzie. The Packers have reportedly allowed several other teams to talk contract parameters with McKenzie; the Packers, though reportedly will only trade McKenzie, if they do move him, to an AFC team. Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Houston, Cleveland and Houston reportedly all have some interest.

 

If you don�t know:

 

  • CB Mike McKenzie wants out of Green Bay.� McKenzie has size, a requisite here, and ability, something long lacking among PS CB.

 

  • Last year, Green Bay gave Philly a deep R2 pick for CB Al Harris.� McKenzie is a better player; he would be worth more.

 

  • Green Bay needs a pass rusher but the top guys will be out well before they draft at 25.�

 

So here�s the deal:

 

  • The Steelers send 1.11 to Green Bay.� The Pack uses that pick to get DE-x, or maybe Roethlisberger.

 

  • The Steelers select OG/OT Vernon Carey at 1.25.

 

  • In addition, the Steelers receive CB Mike McKenzie; Green Bay�s draft allotment remains intact.� The trade value chart, which Mr. Colbert eschews, lists 1.11 as worth 1300 points and 1.25 at 720.� In this deal, McKenzie would figure at 580, which is 33 overall, a phantom pick this year (as Houston used it in last summer�s supplemental).� Fair all around, IMO.

 

Randy Starks falls to 45, Tatum Bell or Derrick Hamilton at 76; that�s my story, and I�m sticking with it, for another 18 hours or so anyway.

 

.�

 

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