2004
Game 14 Preview: Steelers @ Jersey Giants:
The
Steelers travel to the Land of the Sopranos to take on what we all must hope
will be the 4th of five NFC foes they�ll face this season.� So far, so good; as the Steelers are 3-0 vs.
the NFC East.� Of course, that�s
standard for the AFC elite as:
- The Pats are 3-0 vs.
the NFC West; they�ve yet to face the hapless Niners who are 2-0 vs. the
AZ Cards but otherwise 0-11.
- �The Colts are 4-0 vs. the NFC North
- The Jets are 2-0 vs. the NFC West; however, they have yet to face the so-called cream there, Seattle and St. Louis.
- The Bolts are 3-1 vs. the NFC South; their only loss was on the road in Atlanta.�
Overall,
the top and near top AFC teams are 15-1 against the NFC which, broadly, matches
the Giants� chances Sunday.� This is a
team, which in a bad conference, has failed to contend.� There are sixteen teams in the NFC: three
have marks 8-5 or better; six have marks of 5-8.� The Giants are one in the last set but while most of those have
struggled throughout, the NJG did get off, and then collapsed.� Outlined:
- The Giants dropped
their opener but then won 4 straight to enter their bye at 4-1.� Having been consigned pre-season to the
scrape heap, they were elevated, by most mavens, into a top 10 power club.� Similarly, many hailed Tom Coughlin as
the new Lord of Discipline.
- Exiting the bye, the
Giants dropped one, won one, and then lost six straight.� That is, they�ve gone 1-7 since the bye
week, perhaps illustrating John Riggins� adage that, paraphrased, was:
�the strict disciplinarians I played for were the dumbest coaches I played
for.����
Certainly,
few coaches have done less with more than did Coughlin with, say, the 1999 Jax
Jags.� You may remember that this
edition closed out Dan Marino�s career, brutalizing those Fins 62-7 in the
divisional round of the �99 AFC playoffs.�
Perhaps, such excess enraged the discorporeal Lords of Football; at any
rate, the following week those Jags, hosting the Titans in the AFCC, went down
33-14.� After that, Coughlin�s squad
never sniffed the playoff again; going 19-29 in the following three dispirited
seasons.� Dismissed, Mr. Tom sat out
2003, with nary a TV or Net analyst gig before re-surfacing (as, say Jimmy
Hoffa has yet to accomplish) within the Meadowlands� precinct.
In
fairness, it should be acknowledged that these NJG had problems even before
Coughlin�s shade transfixed their threshold.�
Those date from the playoffs too; specifically, the 2002 wildcard round
when they went cross-country to face the SF Niners.� That�s a tough go but those Giants (having trampled the Colts
Week 16 and squeaked by the Eagles Week 17 to get in) were on a roll.� That continued in this PO tilt for, say 42
minutes; then, up 38-15 deep in Q3, the Giants let it slip.� SF scored 24 unanswered to take a 39-38 lead
but that�s not the real heartache.� This
is: though on the brink, the Jerseys still had a chance, down deep late, FG
unit on; but, bad snap, no kick, game over.�
Following
that, one of the all-time epic playoff collapses, the Giants have accomplished
a 9-20 record.� Of course, there�s more
to it than history and bad mojo but those do constitute the context for the
following:
The
Giant O-side retains much of the skill corps from that 2002 PO set, but
few upfront.� Beginning with the
headliners:
- RB Tiki Barber
is #2 in the NFL in total yards from scrimmage; he has 1,743 TY, just
behind Edge James� 1,814.� Barber
is #5 in rushing; his 42 receptions are #6 among all RB.� In years past, Barber has been a
fumbler, coughing it up every 47 touches.�
He�s got that in control now, having dropped the pig just 4x in 300
touches.� Barber is a big play RB
but he�s small.� The Giant�s big
back, Ron Dayne, is a stiff.�
Therefore, while the Giant�s YPC is good, their situational power
rushing capacity (3rd and short, goal-line for example) is
poor.���
- TE Jeremy Shockey
has 5 of the Giants� 7 TD receiving.�
That is correct; the NJG have all of (7) aerial TD.� Shockey burst on the scene in 2002 but
foot injuries have held him back, to some degree.� Shockey can play in-line but he�s far
more dangerous in a flex position.�
The Steelers do not have a defender (perhaps, past Porter) who
matches up with this player.��
- After drafting WR
Armani Toomer in �96, the Giants waited about 3 years for him to show
up.� In �99 he did, with 1183
receiving yards.� Toomer went over
1000 in each of the next 4 years too, had 31 TD in that 5 year span, while
averaging between 14 and 16.5YPC.�
Good numbers but this season he has (0) TD and does not figure to
reach 1000 yards.� Toomer is a deep
threat but he�s slowed and anyway, as we�ll see, the NJG O-line hasn�t
given their QB time to get the ball downfield.� Ike Hilliard is, as he as been, an underneath guy
only.� Hilliard hasn�t scored in
2004 either; he is averaging 8.6 YPC.�
Seemingly, he is now in the twilight of a mediocre career.�
Those
4 players have (179) of the Giants� (216) receptions.� However, as their starting WR have combined for (0) TD, it can be
said that Barber and Shockey are the whole deal.� While retentive behind, upfront, the Giants have swapped out
nearly their entire O-line from that 2002 PO aggregate, a process begun last
season.� Here are the highlights
- In 2002, the Giant
O-line allowed just 24 sacks.�
Kerry Collins had a passer rating of 85.4
- Cap-strapped, the
Giants made some moves that off-season which resulted in their starting 3
rook O-linemen in 2003.� None were
premium type picks.� That 2003
O-line allowed 44 sacks.� Kerry
Collins had a passer rating of 70.7.
Last
winter, the Giants brought in a couple x-Browns, drafted RG Chris Snee and,
well, that�s it.� This 2004 O-line has
allowed 48 sacks; there are 3 games to go.�
While Kurt Warner managed a respectable 86.5 passer rating over 9 games,
in the past 4, Eli Manning is at 33.8.�
By way of comparison:�
- Giant punter Jeff
Fleagle has one pass attempt.� That
was incomplete.� Still, at 39.6,
Fleagle�s passer rating is better than Manning�s.�
- Two unheralded rookies,
Craig Krenzel and Luke McCown, have ratings of 52.5 and 58.1
respectively.�
- AJ Feeley, who only
recently has achieved more TD passes to his receivers (9) than to opposing
DB (5), has a passer rating of 56.3.
It
is difficult to overstate how bad is a 33.8 rating but it�s not all, or even
mainly, on Eli.� The Giant O-line is a
litany of horrors.� LT Luke Pettigout
is playing with a bad back; nominally the best they�ve got, Pettigout has
devolved into their worst pass protector.�
LG Jason Whittle now is the best they�ve got but he�s just a guy.
The Browns drafted two players (Mel Fowler and Jeff Faine) to replace OC
Shaun O�Hara, who is starting here.�
With rook standout RG Chris Snee sidelined, Wayne Lucier is the
RG.� Lucier is stunningly awful in blitz
pickup; he doesn�t get much movement in the run game.� Doug Diehl is at RT; Diehl is an interior player, he�s at
RT because they�ve got no one else.�
That�s
it; that�s the list.� It�s worth noting
that with Snee in the lineup for their first 11 games, the Giants averaged 134.5
rushing yards per game.� In the past
two, with Snee sidelined with some glandular problem, the Giants have achieved
89 yards rushing.� Total.� 44.5 per game.
Keys on this side:
- Pressure:� The Giants cannot block with 5.� Typically, teams with that kind of
problem will keep in a TE or RB to help in pass pro.� Barber really can�t do it, which leaves
Shockey.� Pressuring the QB will
keep Shock in, effectively removing the Giants� primary downfield
threat.�
- Set the edges:� Barber is a big play back.� The Steelers cannot allow him to get an
edge.� Chances are, if Tiki doesn�t
make a play, his team will not score.�
- Reassert the ILB
crossfire blitz:� O�Hara and Lucier figure
to drop more than they pick up.� As
it did in Cleveland 2, this blitz pack figures to open things for the edge
rushers.���
Through 4 games at the dawn of the Age of Eli, the Giants� O has scored 2 TD.� It�s tough to win under those circumstances especially with a Giant defense, whose recent accomplishments include:
� Two weeks ago, the Giants allowed the Wash Skins to score 31.� Previously, the Skins� high game was 18.� In two games prior to meeting the NJG, the Skins had scored 7 and 6 points; last week, they got 14.� That is, with Pat Ramsey at the controls, the Skins scored 27 in 3 games, and 31 in 1 against these Giants.
� Last week, Raven QB Kyle Boller lit the Giants up for 4 TD through the air.� Coming into that game, Boller had tossed 7 TD in 12 games.�
The situation upfront on this side is much like that on the other.� That is, cap-strapped the Giants have made wholesale changes and, well, those didn�t work out.� Last winter, the NJG unloaded, or lost: DT Cornelius Griffin (who is playing well in Washington), DT Keith Hamilton (who retired), DE Kenny Holmes (who defines the term addition by subtraction) as well as all 3 starting LB: Mike Barrow, Brandon Short and Dhani Jones.�
Having dropped 6/7 Front 7 starters, the plan was to build around LDE Michael Strahan.� Well, Week 8, Strahan got hurt and is now on IR.� Then too: FA DT Norman Hand has been in and out; holdover DE Keith Washington got hurt the same week as Strahan, and joined him on IR.� FA ROLB Barrett Green played poorly, then got hurt and, as of last week, is probably done for the year too.� His backup, Nick Greisen, will hobble around on a bad ankle Saturday. LOLB Carlos Emmons (who was a bust here as an openside 3-4 OLB but playing over TE as a 4-3 OLB was Philly�s D-side MVP in 2002) is #2 on the team in tackles.� However, after suffering a bad leg injury in 2003, Emmons really hasn�t gotten his burst back (such as it was).� The short form is:
� The Giants dumped 6/7 upfront starters.� They brought in a number of vet FA to replace those players but most of those guys are injured and now out for the year.�
The Giants do have a couple long-term backups starting including: MLB Keith Lewis.� A 4th year player, Lewis is an undersized but hyperactive MLB.� After 3 years on ST, injuries thrust him into a starting role. He�s no dominator but does lead the team in tackles. DE Lance Legree was a nice rotation player but seems to be overexposed as a starting DE.�
They do have a couple young players who figure to get better:
� DE Osi Umenyiora:� A second year player out of Troy State, Osi leads the Giants with 5 sacks.� Earlier, was the beneficiary of teams� sliding protection towards Strahan; however, he does have a sack and two baggies in the 5 games since Strahan went down.� Also has 23 T in those 5 and scored his first TD last week (FR bringback).� Umenyiora is a great athlete; he will be a player IMO but it�s a lot to ask that a 2nd year guy be the leader on this side.�
�
LOLB/DE Reggie Torbor:� A R4 rookie, Torbor is a swing player who, with
Strahan down, is getting more time in rush situations.� His sack and strip last week set up
Umenyiora�s score.� Torbor is a highly
intelligent player; one the Steelers were, purportedly, strongly
considering.�
No doubt, Tim Lewis is going to bring everyone this week, Torbor and Umenyiora foremost.� However, while both are good young prospects IMO, they�re far from elite, at this point.� That said, they are the best these NJG have upfront.� Behind:
� CB Will Allen and Will Peterson are holdovers from the PO days.� IMO, the Giants can win with these players, as, in the rapidly receding past, they have.� However, these CB, like most, cannot hold up both absent a pass rush and with no real help from the safeties.� Frank Walker, #3, is a 2nd year player, part of the small school class of 2003 (including Mathis, Tillman and Ike Taylor), Walker had a couple INT in part time starting duty last season.�
� FS Brent Alexander is well known here.� He hasn�t gotten faster.
� SS Terry Cousins is a converted NCB.� Though just 5-9, 189#, he�s starting because the Giants have no one else.� Long timer Shaun Williams went down early in the season.� His replacement was Gibril Wilson, a R5 rook, was the early favorite for NFL D-side Rookie of the Year.� However, Wilson got hurt too.� So, Cousins it is.�
On this side, the Steelers must:
� Take care of the ball:� Early in the season, the Giants won off a superior TO differential.� At this point, that�s their only chance.�
� Gut �em:� The Giants are weak all down the middle.� The DT rotation isn�t good (2003 R1 William Joseph appears to be an unreconstructable bust).� Lewis cannot stack.� As Alex is slow and Cousins slight, safety support figures to be poor.���
Summary:�
Though they�ve got some prospects (Manning and the D-side trio of Umenyiora, Torbor and Wilson), the Giants are bad now.� However, in the any-given-S-day NFL, all teams must be respected.� Especially on the D-side, where Tim Lewis has an axe to grind, the Giants figure to come out strong.� The PS must meet that intensity; if they do, the Giants may fold.� In that best case, the Steelers could get this game in hand early.� If so, the staff may be able to treat it as half a bye giving, from say the late-Q3 on, some considerable game experience to: Taylor, Colclough, Starks and Parker, among others.� We�ll see.
�
Three key stats:
- Entering their bye week
at 4-1, the NJG were +11 in the all-important takeaway category.� Now, they are +1, which is to say
they�ve gone (-10) over their 1-7 slide.�
Mainly, that�s piled up in the 4 weeks of the Reign of Manning, the
3rd.� They are (-8) in
those games; that averages (-2) per which is a killer losing margin.�
- The Giants lead the NFL
in KO returns, averaging 25.0 per.�
Backup WR Willie Ponder gets most of the duty; he�s at
26.3.� Backup RB Derrick Ward
is at 28.5; to date, Ward has the Giants only return TD
- The Giants are #31 in
the NFL in sacks allowed.� They�ve
given 48.� The Steeler D is T-3
with 38 sacks.� It is worth noting
that Manning III has faced #1 Philly, T-7 Atlanta and Baltimore, as well
as Washington, just #15 but as we saw, capable of exerting pressure.� Manning has gone down 10 times in 111
dropbacks, a Roethlisberger-esque rate.�
�