Note:�
For the most part, this article was written prior to that season-transforming event of 30 August when Joey Porter was shot outside some bar in Denver.� Some explication of that is hazarded in the introductory remarks attached to the D-side article companion to this piece.� As is true there, this original text is generally unaltered, if only as testament to an optimism that may now be unwarranted.
2003 Steelers, unit by unit:� Offense.
Interior O-line:� Off-season, this looked to be the strongest unit on the O-side of the ball.� Certainly no other team has (3) former 1st round picks guard to guard and, while only Alan Faneca has All-Pro credentials, Jeff Hartings has been a highly capable pro both at OC here and (with the Lions) at ROG while Kendall Simmons did play reasonably well in his rookie season and does figure to improve.� Factor in Chukky Okobi, who held his own in (5) starts, (okay, 3/5) at OC last season and Keydrick Vincent, who, in 2 career starts, has defeated Gerard Warren or Orpheus Roye and John Henderson or Marcus Stroud (reprising the former in crunch time late in the Cleveland playoff last year) and you had a unit ideally blending veteran savvy, talent and developing youth.�
Now, well, we just don�t know.� While Faneca is on his way to joining Mike Webster and Dermontti Dawson on some putative all-time PS fantasy squad, both of his present running mates are in some peril.� Hartings himself has described his knee problem as �degenerative� and �congenital�; this means he�s going to pasture (sooner than later) and there�s not a damn thing anyone can do about it.� The Steelers brought in Calvin Collins, a vet with starting experience at both OG and OC.� However, they used him exclusively at OG in pre-season and, needing little there, released him in the last round of cuts.� Why Collins got no shot at OC is a mystery, and will so remain; what is clear enough now is that this unit�s ceiling is identical with Jeff Hartings� pain threshold.
�As for Simmons, well, all reports indicate that his diabetes is controllable and, since he seems to be a levelheaded guy, we can presume that he will, indeed, remain a contributing player.�� However, that contribution may be downstream this season; persons with Type 2 diabetes do tend to dehydrate more rapidly than most, this suggests a go-slow policy for Simmons, perhaps into early October.� Factor that with his notable lack of playing strength last season and we may be seeing what Vincent can do with extended time.� I believe Key-V will be fine but, clearly, this does affect the Steelers� depth inside; additionally, as Hartings is one hard knock (or cheap shot) from done, it is apparent that what figured to be a deep pool of talent in-board could quickly evaporate, leaving the big fish O-side skill players beached and gasping for air.�
Outlook:� Mixed, figure a slow start and hope for a big close.� The Steelers have enough talent and versatility to survive, for a short-term, the loss of either Hartings or Simmons.� However, IMO, Okobi, more than Vincent, is liable to be exposed over any long stretch; this suggests that Hartings is the more indispensable of the two ailing starters, for now anyway.� Also IMO, Kendall Simmons was drafted as Dawson�s true successor; as he regains his health and conditioning, we may be hearing he�s working at OC too.� That would be good; in the same way that RT Todd Fordham and Ollie Ross are the Steelers #4 and #5 OG now, the PS do have immediate need for additional depth at OC.
Simmons showed well in two pre-season outings; however, those games are more walkthroughs than genuine action.� If, and it does remain possible, Simmons isn�t back to full strength until, say, the bye week in Week 7, the Steelers� O-line figures to gel late this season, if at all.� Further, Hartings� problems suggest that this will be his last in B&G; maybe, that accelerates the replacement cycle the FO had in place but, certainly, the +10M impact Faneca and Hartings combined put on the 2005 cap was never supportable.� In some respect then, the 2003 openers figure as a preview of 2004 and beyond; certainly, as both Vincent and Okobi head towards their RFA seasons, those games could furnish the FO with some additional basis for evaluation.
Lost:���������������� None.���
Gained:������������ None.����
Offensive Tackle:� Wayne Gandy arrived here in �99, effectively, to replace John Jackson.� We all know that Jackson had left a year earlier but the Steelers� replacement plan in �98 (move Justin Strzelczyk to LOT and let Jamain Stephens and Paul Wiggins battle at ROT) was doomed from the jump.� Strzelczyk was far from a natural fit on the left side and neither Stephens nor Wiggins had played at all; as it turned out, neither could play at all.�
Gandy is gone now and, maybe to some, the situation looks like a reprise of �98 but IMO, that is not so.� Marvel Smith was the #2 LOT prospect in the class of �00; he certainly never dominated here on the right side but it�s reasonable to project that he�ll develop solidly, now back at his more natural spot.� Todd Fordham had (29) starts in Jacksonville over the past (3) seasons; of those, (21) were at OT and (8) at OG.� This player doesn�t figure as a PB candidate but he�s a high try, capable veteran, certainly a better bet now than were either Wiggins or Stephens in �98.� Fordham has started at OT on both sides while the previously-presumed starter at ROT, Oliver Ross, entered 2003 with (1) career start at LOT and (8) at ROG.�
Ross has been a (barely) capable, versatile backup but whether he�s starter quality is open to question.� Off the pre-season, you�d have to say no; too often, Ollie was beaten in pass protection and, for sure, the Steelers got nothing done on the ground when he was in the game.� Technique is a real issue with this player; he has looked top-heavy, leaning, rather than playing from a solid core and, in years of watching of football, I�ve seldom seen a tackle with poorer footwork.� Off that, you�ve got to believe that Russ Grimm�s guru status is in peril.�
In sum, it appears that the Steeler FO hedged their bet on Ollie with Fordham while, presumably, waiting on Mathias Nkwenti, the most athletic player on this unit, to develop.� Of course, if he does now, it�ll be at ROT; the Steelers didn�t give Smith LOT money only to move him back to the right side.� However, considering that Nkwenti got no game time at that spot in pre-season, OT is looking like a high priority in the 2004 draft or FA market.
Outlook:� The 2003 OT tandem figures to play at a cut below what we�ve seen in the past couple seasons; the question is whether they�ll be closer to, say, �00 or �98.�� The FO put 26M on Marvel Smith to play at a Gandy or Jackson type just-sub-Pro Bowl level.� IMO, he can accomplish that but, likely, there will be some growing pains in the early going.� Ross does not figure to get to even a Smith-level on the right side; if he could do so, then he would have become the starter there sometime in the past two seasons.� IMO, Fordham is a better bet at that spot; while not especially talented, he is a savvy, persistent type.� In 2000, the Jags half-got-by with Fordham in for Tony Boselli, then certainly the best LOT in the game; Smith left a far smaller footprint at ROT here and it figures that any downside would be similarly reduced.�� As for Nkwenti, well, sooner rather than later, this guy is going to have to translate his considerable talents onto the field.� As constituted, whoever starts opposite Smith at OT figures as the least athletic member of this O-line; if Nkwenti did develop, that rank would be reversed.�
The situation at ROG and OC certainly influences this unit; initially, the FO must have projected that a stable inside trio would carry the O-line through the early going while Smith and ROT-x found their respective way.� That�s all over now and, if this 2003 O-line does develop, it figures to be late, over a desperate stretch run.
Lost:���� ����������� Wayne
Gandy.���
Gained:������������ Todd Fordham�����������
Tight End:� The FO brought in Jay Reimersma to catch the ball; brought back Mark Bruener to block and Jerame Tuman to be a second option in both roles which is to say, he figures as the 2nd TE in any dual TE set, regardless of situation.� Now, the pieces are in place but how these might fit with other components on the O-side remains to be seen.�
For what it�s worth, I believe Bruener may function best in a 3-wide, single back set; the Steelers have questions at OT and MB could be effective as a 6th pass protector and receiver of last resort.� Reimersma figures as a legit 3rd receiving option in the power-I; whatever differential there maybe in his blocking vs. that of MB is obliterated by the fact that both ROT candidates are better run than pass blockers.� Placed within an empty set, Reimersma could bring the kind of 4th option veteran presence provided last season by Terrence Mathis.� Tuman has developed, slowly, into an acceptable complementary player; the PS has won with him in a starting role and, all things being equal, could do so again.� Matt Cushing moves into his 5th season, now as #4 TE and #2 FB.
Outlook:� Solid.� There�s no Shockey, Heap or Gonzales in this group but the PS does have (3) players with starting experience at the position.� However, the TE corps has been lightly used in Pittsburgh; this low impact coefficient attenuates the likely effect of that indisputable quality now stockpiled there.
Lost:���������������� John
Allred and Mark Battaglia.
Gained:������������ Jay
Reimersma
Fullback:� Here, the situation is very much like that at TE, high quality at a position of little impact.� According to John Clayton at ESPN, FB saw the field on about 18% of all offensive snaps last season.� That number may have been higher here but it�s trending downward.� What the PS has is very good, Dan Kreider is the absolute epitome of hard-nosed, blue collar ball; however, what that means now, as the league has evolved from slugging it out on frozen mud towards today�s Arena-esque Air Show, is considerably diminished.� As mentioned, Matt Cushing may get some snaps as the #2 FB.
Outlook:�
Solid.�
Lost:���������������� (Verron Haynes moves to RB)
Gained:������������ None.
Running Back:� Last season, Amos Zereoue came in weakened from the lingering effects of some liver-clinging parasite; despite that, he put up 1103 yards total offense.� Zereoue is some 6# heavier this year and, reportedly, both stronger and faster.� Amoz does have big play ability; however, seeking to break it, he�s had a tendency to pile up minus-yardage plays too.� Some of that could be described as errors of enthusiasm but with the experience he had being the guy last year, we can expect that, often enough this season, he�ll take the 3-4 yard gain, rather than losing 5 trying to gain 30.� That development will be important; this player�s greatest deficiency last season was those clustering negative plays that subverted any rational play-calling sequence.
Last season, Jerome Bettis came in fat and slow after an off-season spent recovering from his �01 Game 11 groin injury.� Perhaps as result, he got hurt early in �02 and so struggled to his worst season since �95, in St. Louis.� Reportedly, Bettis is fit and ready now; that�s all good, the Bus is rumbling up the all-time rush chart and, soon enough, should rank as the #1 big back all-time (if you exclude FB Jimmy Brown from that category).� Fit, Bettis can bring the clock-chewing power presence that the PS will need to come through the playoffs but, on the downside, the Bus has been fit for just 1 of the 4 PO trips that the team has made during his prior 7 seasons here.� Therefore, IMO, the staff would be well advised to use Bettis sparingly in the early going, when the weather favors air ball and while the O-line gels.� The days when the Bus was the sole option here are long gone; the days when Bettis could pack it 375 times per season are long gone too; however, if the big boy is ready in the playoff rounds, his finest hours could be ahead.
No player made greater strides from last season than did Verron Haynes.� In pre-season, Haynes flashed everything you want in a RB: decisiveness inside the tackles, some ability to get on the edge, with plus ability both receiving and in blitz pick-up.� It�s only a notion but I sense the same kind of grit in Haynes that Hines Ward has displayed in parlaying (relatively) modest ability into Pro Bowl performance.� We�ll see.
Outlook:� An upgrade from 2002.�� Both Zereoue and Bettis come in considerably stronger this season than last.� Half-speed in 2002, this pair still combined for 1428 yards rushing although, as a duo, they finished a couple hundred yards behind the SF pair of Hearst and Barlow.� Healthy from the jump this season, they could do better, bringing impact equal to that Bam/Pegram dyad resident here when the PS last sniffed Super-turf.� On the downside, neither are feature types: Amoz has no record as a week-in-week-out feature back and the Bus generally has broken down late.� Verron Haynes is the wild card; nearly worthless last season, Haynes looks to have developed into a useful complementary player at the very least, and may be headed towards greater things.� At this moment, a RB tandem of Haynes and either of the top 2 looks pretty good.� While numbers are at issue, there is some substantial quality at this position.
Lost:���������������� Chris Fuamatu-Ma�afala
Gained:������������ None.
Wide Receiver:� Last season, the Steeler top 3, Spike Burress, Hines Ward and ARE combined for 237 receptions, 3,143 yards and 21 TD.� That trumps any trio in the league; indeed, it is superior in the aggregate to what that feared Brown WR quartet accomplished: 198, 2,688 and 22.� So long as the Steeler 3-wide remains intact, the PS have a solid chance in any shoot-out since, while the Steeler pass-d may be questioned, this set can command equal or greater overmatches vs. any opponent on the 2003 schedule.� However, depth is at issue, considering that:
Lee Mays is the first backup behind Spike.� Mays had (0) catches in his rookie campaign and, IMO, was outplayed in pre-season by Khori Ivy.� Mays may have some kind of utility as a ST player, especially in kick returns.� However, Ike Taylor seems to have surpassed him in that area, as Freddie Milons may do shortly.� All in all, Mays seems to be just a guy; sure, the drop-off from Burress to any number of potential reserves would be steep but here it is precipitous.
Chris Doering is the #4 guy taking the spot Terrence Mathis occupied last season.� However, given that Doering is very slow, it�s no sure thing that he�d be the first replacement in event of injury to either Burress or Ward.� Doering does have very good hands but overall he�s just a decent spread player, little more.
Freddie Milons is an ARE clone though with considerably less upside.� Milons was beaten out for #4 WR in Philly by rookie Billy McMullen; and, while regarded as a better return than receiving prospect, per Ourlads� depth charts, he was the 3rd option in Philly at KR and wasn�t even in their 3-deep punt return list.� So, he�s a prospect similar to the one he displaced, Hank Poteat, and there�s an upside: whatever may be Milons� limitations, he is not, in fact, Hank Poteat.
Outlook: �Outstanding, if thin.� This unit performed very well in 2002; barring injury, they should be even better in 2003.� The depth isn�t great here, but it�s no worse than last season.
Lost:���������������� Terrence Mathis
Gained:������������ Chris
Doering, Freddie Milons.
Quarterback:� Though he started just 11 games in 2002, Tommy Maddox put together one of the better seasons in Steeler history: 1st in completion percentage, 3rd in QB rating, 7th in TD, he also was way up in league-wide YPA.� However, those numbers don�t tell the story; last season, Maddox emerged in the late going as a team leader, a quality absent here at this position since Bobby Layne blew town.� Now, as was true in the playoff rounds then, Maddox figures as the Steelers best hope in grasping that long-elusive 5th ring.� Of course, he�ll need more than a little help from his friends; we all understand that T-Max is down-list in attributes like physicality or escapability.� To function, he needs a solid O-line and, while we�ve all concerns about the OT, nothing stops a passing game faster than a big inside push and, there, Hartings� condition together with Simmons� progression towards full health, certainly does factor.
Charlie Batch was a 2nd round pick back when Kevin Colbert was part of the Lion brain trust.� Mr. Colbert has had a fine record here in the 2nd and, for a time, Batch did look the guy in Motor City.� Installed as a starter there in�98, he finished that rookie campaign in the top 10 in (the all-important category of) YPA.� He reprised that in �99 but afterwards, his career took a left.� Playing behind a very poor O-line, Batch got hurt in �00, struggled thereafter, and, when the last new regime entered Lion-land, Charlie for the quick hook.� Still, Batch does have more TD than INT in his career; his 6.8 YPA is above average; IMO, Batch is a fairly capable QB.� With the weapons at hand, the Steelers could score with Batch at the controls; however, whether he could match Maddox�s leadership quotient is simply unknown.
Brian St. Pierre is the 3rd guy.�� A 5th round rookie, St. Pierre doesn�t have elite type tools but in today�s NFL, those are not necessary.� In limited pre-season, St. Pierre showed sufficient arm strength and fair escapability.� However, he demonstrated a penchant for turning it over too; overall, his 4 appearances could be summarized as awful, stunningly awful, good and very poor.� That�s a bad report card; St. Pierre has a long way to go to get to the kind of level that other late picks, such as Brady and Bulger, have achieved.��� At this date, he�s nowhere near ready to play.�
Outlook:� Highly promising.� In his 2nd season starting, we can expect Maddox to be better.� Charlie Batch is a quality reserve.� Unlike last season, the Steelers lack a 3rd with game day experience but, really, that�s standard in the NFL today.� Certainly, we don�t want to see Brian St. Pierre in the role of AJ Freeley but, again, that�s SOP.�
Lost:���������������� Kordell Stewart
Gained:������������ Brian
St. Pierre
Practice Squad:
- RB Dante Brown:� Training camp sensation who was the Steelers leading rusher in pre-season.� Has size and speed to factor, showed good hands and willingness in both blitz pick-up and ST coverage units.� However, this guy runs tall and that�s very dangerous in this NFL.� If Coach Hoak can extinguish that tendency, that 4.4 speed could one day factor.��
- FB
JT Walls:� Marginal athlete
whose main value is as leverage in coming contract negotiations with Dan
Kreider.� The Steelers have 4 TE
and 2 FB under contract.� Why?� Well, we just don�t know.
Outlook:
The Lords of Football endorse what those cranking the Karmic Wheel cannot grasp.� As obvious as any wild rose sprouting out of a manure pile, so is it apparent that the Steelers� championship aspirations depend on Tommy Maddox�s good right arm.� Despite that, the FO elected last winter to pass pushing up Maddox�s compensation.� Now, in a play-for-pay realm this is inexplicable.� However, we all understand that pro ball is not truly play-for-pay; rather, it is paid-for-past play, which is exactly why, say, Kendrell Bell and Casey Hampton are at the bottom of the sal-heap (among starters anyway), while Dewayne Washington and Jason Gildon, for example, bob on top.� Other cases exist but suffice to say that, in the copycat NFL, personnel decisions most often revert to do-what-you�ve-done and, for that reason, most teams ultimately founder on their outlay for aging stars who are sure to slide in the Not-For-Long.�
Much has been written on the miniscule pay differences between the Steelers� top two QB.� All that ignores the pachyderm in the parlor; there�s no real cash there and, regardless of any disingenuous suggestions that the FO took a wait and see position, the fact is that they didn�t pay Tommy because they couldn�t pay Tommy.� That�s a C$3 thing and so are we back to the jump.�
Well, sort of; all that�s just a gloss on the business end but surely, that�s merely a small sliver of existence.� It amounts to this: the Steelers got close last year by throwing the ball; they flopped defending the pass; they did some small but probably insufficient adjustments in the pass-d; they tinkered around the edges in FA as in adjusting their cap outlay.� In sum, as the burden was on Maddox, so does it figure to remain but as noted, the reward structure could not be so balanced.� Thus did the Wheel turn, equalizing the action:� Hartings� cartilage evidently evaporated, Simmons� sugar surged out of control and Joey Porter took a round.� �
Now, the Steeler O-side looks like a Ferrari on the blocks; all kinds of flash but lacking the power train to drive that thing; that is, the Steeler O-side has got all the skill players needed but that O-line is a huge question.� You know, both Fordham and Simmons looked good scrimmaging the Panthers but whether they can hold up at speed certainly remains open to question.� Hartings� guard-like ability to get to the 2nd level could well be gone with some consequences for his running mate, Alan Faneca.� As for Marvel, well, we�re guessing he�ll make it but we just don�t know.� �If the O-line plays to that form previously projected, the Steelers could contend; if not, that Tommy Gun attack will be about as useful in the air wars to come as, say, an umbrella in a hurricane.