2004
Game 12 Preview:� Steelers @
Jacksonville.
Beginning
with the Steelers� playoff picture:
- 10-1 New England does
have a schedule advantage.� While
the PS will close out playing 3 teams with winning records (plus, the upwardly
mobile Bills), the Pats get just one, the Jersey Jets.� New England plays two bottom-feeders,
the Niners and Fins, as well as Cleveland�s Team Chaos.� Jets excluded, the Queen City Bengals
look to be their toughest remaining opponent.�
- �8-3 Indianapolis has a tough
go.� After the Titans this weekend,
they will host Baltimore and San Diego while traveling to Houston and
Denver.� That�s three out-division
teams with winning records and two division rivals.� Now the greatest show on turf, the
Colts have yet to prove they can win outside late in the year.� Give or take, they�re just about one
loss from developing that opportunity.
- 7-4 Baltimore
gets the gift of Miami but will have to go to both Indy and Pittsburgh;
otherwise, they host the Bengals and NYG.�
Reportedly, Coach Billick has all but conceded divisional honors
and, as motivation, has set about resurrecting the ghost of his
2000-playoff road warriors.� Well,
one difference is that no one ran the ball against those Ravens and, as
the Pats showed last week, that�s not true for this edition.� Then too, that was then and, well, this
is not.�
�
This
is Jacksonville week and, in Alltel, the Steelers will find a desperate
team.� After opening 3-0, the Jags have
dropped 3 of their past 4, falling to 6-5.�
That would be good to go in the NFC, where only 3 teams have a better
mark; however, the Jags are in the AFC, where they are 8th in a race
for 6 playoff slots.��
The
Jags need a win and, beyond doubt, the Steelers do owe that franchise a debt of
gratitude because, had their braintrust not cramped up Draft Day One last
April, Ben Roethlisberger would be a Bill today.� Remember, Jacksonville was drafting in the 9 hole, two ahead of
Pittsburgh.� Reportedly, Bills�
uber-meister Tom Donahoe offered a deal where Jacksonville would drop to 13,
picking up somethin� somethin�, while Buffalo moved up to take Big Ben.� Jacksonville, needing a DE but set on WR,
opted out, instead choosing Reggie Williams, who was #3 at the position.�
Not
smart.� As it happened, Williams is
averaging just 8.9 per reception but that�s not the point.� This is: the teams between 9 and 13 (Texans,
Steelers and Jets) had other needs.�
It�s highly likely that Williams still would have been on the board at
13; indisputably, Mike Clayton was.�
Playing for the Bucs, Clayton has 60 grabs at 13.8 per with 3 TD.� Williams, a disappointment to date, has just
22 receptions at (a ridiculous) 8.9 per, with (0) TD.��
Jacksonville�s
offense
struggled early with Byron Leftwich under center.� In college, Leftwich played almost exclusively out of the
shotgun.� He�s still more comfortable
there, and quite effective.� However,
that creates a dilemma on this side for the Jags.� It is still true that Fred Taylor makes this team go.� Taylor is far more effective in either a
single back or pro set.� That�s not
Leftwich�s cup of meat and, until that changes, the Jags� offense will tend to
underachieve.� Since Jacksonville wins on
the D-side, these limited comments on their O:
- About 50% of all Jag
pass attempts come out of 3-wide.�
The thing is, Jacksonville doesn�t have 3 capable WR.� Jimmy Smith remains an elite
type #1 and, as a #3, Toy Edwards has put up ARE numbers.� However, Toy is, as he was here, a
turnover waiting to happen.� He�s
no #2 and, at this point, neither is Reggie Williams.���
- Fred Taylor remains one of the
best all around backs in the League.�
Taylor has 904 yards rushing this season, at 4.8 YPC.� Taylor is a devastating cutback runner;
one key will be whether Larry Foote can meet his lane assignments on plays
to his side.�� Characteristically,
the Jags are a big play run game relying on Taylor�s open field
ability.� They are not great in
power situations, ranking near the bottom in stuff percentage
(against).�
- Bryon Leftwich has 307 pass attempts.
Of those, 197 from the shotgun, about 64%.� Normally, Fred Taylor is alongside Leftwich.� Taylor is the Jags #3 leading
receiver.� In coverage, the PS LB
will have a challenge with Taylor.�
If Coach LeBeau�s blitz packages force Fast Freddie to stay in, so
much the better.�
- In single back, the
Jags run 50/50 3 wide or twin TE.�
However, their TE corps is depleted.� Kyle Brady, an outstanding run blocker, is questionable;
George Wrighster, a move TE, is out.�
Look for the Jags to go 3 wide; against the packages, run, the
base, pass.
Entering
this season, the Jag O-line was considered one of the better young aggregates
in the League.� However, an injury to LT
Mike Pearson early depleted that group.��
Ephraim Salaam is Pearson�s replacement.� Salaam is a veteran who has started in both Atlanta and Denver;
however, he�s been generally regarded as an upgradeable player.� Salaam has problems with speed rushers;
conceivably, Joey Porter (who has already exceeded his 2002 Pro Bowl campaign
marks in FF (3v2) and PD (10v9) could move up in the sack race this week (now,
7v9).��
It�s
well known that Jacksonville is a home for old Steelers: Toy and Fu on the
O-side; Dewayne Washington and Jason Gildon on the D.� Salaam has a link too; in the �98 draft, the PS traded 3 R7 picks
to Atlanta, receiving 1 R5, which they expended on the diminutive DB, Jason
Simmons.� With one of those R7, the
Falcons took Salaam who, as a rookie, made a Super Bowl start.�
So
it goes.� The short form is that the Jags
are a big play run O but a small play pass attack.� 22nd overall in YPA, Jacksonville doesn�t figure to
get a big air strike.� Limit Taylor and
the Jags will be hobbled.� To do
so:�
- The PS LB, especially
the ILB, must maintain lane discipline against Taylor�s cutback options.
- As pressure kept the
Pat TE in, so may the PS effectively �cover� Taylor by forcing the Jags to
max protect.��
- Since Hampton went out,
the PS run D has climbed to the top.�
However, that�s a factor of a low number of opponent rush attempts;
in fact, on an YPC basis, the PS has worsened somewhat in the middle.� The Jags do have a couple of capable OG
(as, say, Cleveland did not); both Vince Manuwi and Chris Naeole are
maulers, though OC Brad Meester is more a finesse guy.� Still, for Chris Hoke, this set-to
figures to be his stiffest test to date.�
A good thing, what with Martin and Mawae upcoming.���
Conventional
wisdom has it that 3 PS defenders are Pro Bowl locks.� They are: James Farrior (who many now tout as AFC DMVP), Aaron
Smith (who leads the team with 14 tackles behind the line, is largely
responsible for the Steelers� near-impregnable left side run D and would be my
pick for Steeler DMVP) and Troy Polamalu (who seems like a lock for NFL most
improved player).� Of course, Coach
LeBeau�s wizardry figures too; Coach Dick�s whole deal is to put the
(unexpected) player in position to make plays.�
To cite two examples:
- CB Deshea Townsend
leads all NFL DB in sacks.
- Among NFL sack leaders,
LB Joey Porter leads in passes defended.�
There
it is; certainly, the Steelers aren�t doing it on all around talent.� For instance, Willie Williams figures to be
at a mismatch disadvantage every week; no exception this v. Jimmy Smith.� For years, Chris Hoke played behind Kendrick
Clancy, a player who, in his UFA tour, found no takers.� Chris Hope is a FS with 2 PD.� Clark Haggans is above average, maybe.� But, in the same way that NE can win with
Earthwind Moreland and Randall Gay at CB, the PS D has found a way.�� Chances are, they�ll do so in Florida too,
on this side of the ball.� On the other,
well:
The
Jacksonville defense may be characterized as stout in the middle and
suspect on the edges.� Outlined:
- DT Marcus Stroud
is certainly top 10 at the position; his running mate, Jon Henderson,
isn�t far behind.� These players
are interchangeable; both are capable of playing on the nose, 2 or 3
technique.� In essence, these Jags
are built on the old Raven twin jumbo mode with the added benefit that, at
6�-5� to 6�-7�, both can interfere with passing lanes.�
- MLB Mike Peterson is
a speed type, in the Nick Barnett, (formerly) Ray Lewis mode.� Peterson came up as a WOLB,
conceivably, teams can run at him; however, those DT generally keep him
clean.
- SS Donavin Darius
is better in the box than out; that said, he�s very good down against the
run.� Darius is a team leader; his
running mate, Deon Grant, is in his first year at
Jacksonville.�� Grant came up in
Carolina as a centerfielder type safety, a ballhawk who would not
hit.� However, after re-habbing
from a hip fracture a few years ago, Grant did toughen up.� He�s a more complete safety today and,
while slowing to around a 4.6 40 following that surgery, he�s made up for
that with sound positioning.�
It�s
a mixed bag on the edges:
- CB Rashean Mathis
is a big physical CB, part of the exemplary CB class of 2003.� Dewayne Washington starts on the
other side; we all know about this player. Kiwaukee Thomas is the 3rd;
another physical sort who has played past his draft pedigree, but hasn�t
played great.�
- Rookie Daryl Smith
starts at ROLB.� Smith is a chase
player who has made few big plays in his initial campaign.� 3rd year vet Akin Ayodele
is on the other side; a productive complementary player (115 T last season),
Ayodele is limited in the big play department.�
The
Jags are a 4-3 team in name only. DE are the upfront playmakers in the 4-3 but
in fact, the Jags have no DE at all.�� Pre-camp,
they cut Tony Brackens; in camp, they cut Hugh Douglas.� Since then, they�ve lost Lionel Barnes, Paul
Spicer and Rob Meier to injury.� That�s
one reason they have just 15 takes in 11 games.� Now:
- R7 rook Bobbie
McCray figures to start at LDE.�
McCray is a tremendous athlete but at 6-5, 251# he�s light to
anchor at DE.� Additionally, there
is doubt as to his want-to playing the run.�
- Jason Gildon figures to start at
RDE.� If not Gildon, then Greg
Favors, another converted LB.�
Gildon is well known here; Favors is a journeyman who goes 241#.�
The
Jags picked up Eddie Freeman this week.�
Freeman is such a force that the D-line poor KC Chiefs cut him.� Still, Freeman is a wide body; he does give
Jax a 4th at DT (#3 is Derrick Ransom, another former Chief).� Conceivably, Jacksonville could go 3-4,
using all of those so-called DE as OLB, presumably with Smith moving
in-board.� They do something similar in
pass situations, with Stroud moving out to DE.�
However, it�s late in the year to make that kind of change and, as we�ve
seen the past two weeks, the PS have had problems blocking any LB at all,
wherever they�ve lined up.� Below, the
ignominy that has been the PS pass protection, tabulated.�
11 sacks allowed in the past 2 games:
|
|
Total |
Down |
Standing |
Remarks |
|
D-line |
3.5 |
3.5 |
None |
Ross
beaten for 2.5 by Duane Clemons.� Of those,
1.5 on the Steelers� opening possession.�
In Cincy, Marvel Smith was beaten by Justin Smith |
|
LB |
6.5 |
2.0 |
4.5 |
Ross
beaten by M. Washington; Smith beaten by C. Clemons. Whiffing on a sack as the
PS tried to set up a screen, Smith gave M. Washington�s 2nd
sack.�� On (essentially) the same
delay blitz, both Landon Johnson and Lemar Marshall beat Faneca. |
|
DB |
1.0 |
None |
1.0 |
Madieu
Williams, another delay. |
Of those
11 sacks, 5.5 came from down players; of those, it�s worth noting that on 2
(Washington and Clemons), backfield protection was at issue.� The other 5.5 came off delay blitzes from
standing players.� Excluding
Washington�s 2nd sack (described above), all may be attributed to
protection blows.� Of those, Faneca was
the prime culprit; in explication, it should be acknowledged that backfield
protection might have been an aspect here too.�
It
comes to this:� everyone understands
that Ross needs help in pass pro; that�s the way it is, that�s the way it
goes.� Per the Steelers� stats, Smith
had allowed 1 sack in the season�s first half; last Sunday, he gave two.� Faneca�s performance is a mystery; this is a
Pro Bowl player who is allowing sacks in bunches. ���
This
Sunday, the PS will face a team that has been less than mediocre
pressuring.� No Jag has more than 4.0
sacks (Stroud); as a team, they have just 21.�
However, they do have a raft of LB who are no worse than guys like
Clemons and Marshall (Skins who got sacks).�
Jag HC Jack Del Rio was a LB in his playing days; he began as a LB
coach.�� He�ll get what he can from his
charges and, off the Steelers� performance in the past two weeks, that�ll be
plenty.� A couple comparisons:
Coach LeBeau�s superb pressure defense and the Steelers
O-pass pro:
|
|
Pass
attempts |
Sacks
|
Rate
(sacks/all dropbacks_ |
|
Steeler
O |
247 |
26 |
9.5% (26/273) |
|
Steeler
D |
341 |
36 |
9.5% (36/377) |
- The Steeler D leads the
league in sacks with 36.� Their sack
rate is #1 too.�
- The Steeler O-line is
allowing sacks at the same rate as the Steeler D is gathering them.
- The League average is
~6.7%.
And, a tale of 3 QB:�
|
|
Pass attempts |
# times sacked |
Rate |
|
Roethlisberger |
212 |
22 |
9.4% |
|
Carson Palmer |
372 |
22 |
5.5% |
|
Jeff Garcia |
251 |
23 |
8.4% |
- At this point,
Roethlisberger is being sacked at the same rate as Tommy Maddox.
- If Roethlisberger gets
off 160 passes without a sack, then he will tie Palmer�s current
mark.�
- Cleveland�s O-line has
been an object of ridicule but Garcia has been sacked at a lower rate than
Roethlisberger.