Reality Check:

 

Draft gurus make their bones by accurately predicting where any given prospect gets selected in any given draft.� Hit and it�s �value�, or BPA; miss and it�s a �reach� for which any given teams� FO may then be excoriated.� In contrast, personnel directors are looking for players; that so a �reach� that proves out is of far greater value than some BPA who busts.

 

Let�s look at the some past prospect lists, focusing on DB since that remains the Steelers� area of greatest need.� The following tables display D-back prospects from the classes of 1998,1999, 2000 and 2003; the rankings shown are overall (regardless of position) as the Huddle Report(s) of those years had it.� Boldface in the �98-�00 columns indicates those players who both would have been available at 1.27 or 2.59 and (subsequently) proved out.

 

Prospects as ranked:

 

1998, 16 in top 80.		1999, 12 in top 100.		2000, 14 in top 100.		2002, 17 in top 100.
Rank	Player	Rank	Player	Rank	Player	Rank	Player
3	Charles Woodson	2	Champ Bailey	24	Deon Grant	5	Terence Newman
15	Shaun Williams	11	Chris McAlister	28	Ahmad Plummer	10	Marcus Trufant
21	Brian Kelly	23	Antoine Winfield	30	Delthea O�Neal	18	Andre Woolfolk
22	Duane Starks	31	Fernando Bryant	36	Rashad Anderson	29	Mike Doss
23	Corey Chavous	34	Antwan Edwards	42	Ike Charlton	32	Troy Polamalu
27	Terry Fair	46	Dre Bly	47	Barrett Green	36	Dennis Weathersby
32	Tebucky Jones	53	Anthony Poindexter	51	Lewis Sanders	38	Rashean Mathis
36	RW McQuarters	55	Fred Vinson	55	Dwayne Goodrich	52	Sammy Davis
40	Patrick Surtain	57	Charles Fisher	66	Mark Roman	53	Eugene Wilson
41	Donovin Darius	69	Mike McKenzie	69	Ben Kelly	55	Julian Battle
43	Cordell Taylor	84	Daylon McCutcheon	77	Hank Poteat	57	Ken Hamlin
47	Tony Parrish	95	Marquis Smith	83	Rogers Beckett	63	Kevin Garrett
50	Ramos McDonald			87	Gary Berry	78	Drayton Florence
52	Roosevelt Blackmon			88	Mike Brown	95	Terrence Holt
60	Samari Rolle					96	Rod Babers
79	Robert Williams					97	Ricky Manning
						99	DeJuan Groce

 

Observations:

 

• First Round Reaches:� Seven DB were taken in�98; those were: Woodson, Starks, Williams, Fair, Jones, Darius and McQuarters.� Of those, (3) carried 2^nd round grades; additionally, Starks (drafted at 1.10) must have been considered somewhat of a reach.� Five DB were taken in the opening frame of �99; those were: Bailey, McAlister, Winfield, Bryant and Edwards.� Of those, both Bryant and Edwards carried 2^nd round grades and neither has really proved out.� Only three DB were taken in the �00 first stanza; both O�Neal and Anderson were reaches though O�Neal has flashed.� In sum, of eight first round reaches, perhaps four (Starks, Jones, Darius and O�Neal) have shown; Anderson and Edwards must be regarded as busts with Fernando Bryant and McQuarters somewhere between.� Quite obviously, had any team �reached� for Surtain and/or Rolle in the 1^st of �98, that 4 for 8 would be adjusted upward.

 

• CB:� Four lead, or #1, CB were drafted in �98; those were: Woodson, Starks, Surtain and Rolle.� Of those, two were available at 1.27 as was Brian Kelly, an impact performer in the T-Buc system.� Two lead CB were drafted in �99; both Bailey and McAlister were top ten picks.� Mike McKenzie is a solid, big CB but somewhat south of a lead type and, as such, a far better value at some putative 2.59 (or in the actual slot, 2.55, where Scott Shields was selected).� The other top CB in that class (Winfield, Bly and McCutcheon) are too small to take on the run support duty required in the Steeler 3-4.� Of the very thin �00 class, only O�Neal has flashed as a lead CB though he�s been benched too.� In sum, (7) #1 type CB were drafted in the 98-00 period; (2) were available at 1.27.

 

• Safety:� Three safeties were taken in the 1^st in �98, one (Edwards) in �99 and none in �00.� Over those three years, only Williams and Grant carried 1^st round grades.� Grant lasted into the 3^rd where he was selected by Carolina and, subsequently, out-performed 1^st round reach Rashad Anderson.� Mike Brown must have been considered an extreme reach when the Bears took him at the top of the 2^nd; however, Brown made the All-Rookie team and has proved out as a leader in that beleaguered secondary; much the same may be said for Rogers Beckett and the Bolts.� That said, value at safety remains through the 1^st day; IMO, Schulters is the best of the �98 class, Jackson of the (weak) �99 group and Wesley of the class of 2000.� Those players were drafted in the 4^th, 4^th and 3^rd respectively.

 

The Huddle Report�s prospect lists are as good as any, and better than most but, in general, these have been of dubious utility in projecting success pro-ward.� (42) DB prospects are listed above in the �98-�00 top 100�s but as we will see only (23) have developed as starters.� In contrast, the record indicates that (44) DB taken in those years have so developed; that is, the Huddle Report Hot Hundreds hit just on 23/44 starters, missing on (21).�

 

In the table below, the terms �reach�, �value� and �BPA� are applied as may have been true just after draft day; there may be some irony in that.� (NR) means no rating but actually references that this prospect was in the Second Hundred (or later in several cases).� In some order approximating their performance, here are the players from the classes of 98-00 who have developed as starters.

 

Table of Starters (as listed in Ourlads):

 

1998, of 15 starters, 11 were top 80 prospects.		1999, of 13 starters, 7 were top 100 prospects		2000, of 16 starters, 5 were top 100 prospects.		2003, 17 worth considering.
3	CB Woodson, top 5	2	CB Bailey, top 10	30	CB O�Neal, 1st round reach	1	CB Terrence Newman
40	CB Surtain, 2nd round BPA.	11	CB McAlister, top 10	NR	SS Greg Wesley (3rd round value)	2	CB Marcus Trufant
60	CB Rolle, 2nd round reach who proved out.	23	CB Winfield, mid-1st	24	FS Grant, fell to 3rd round and so was value.	3	SS Troy Polamula
22	CB Starks, 1st round reach at 1.10.	69	CB McKenzie, 3rd round BPA type	28	CB Plummer, late 1st BPA type.	4	CB Sammy Davis
NR	FS Lance Schulters (4th round)	NR	FS Dexter Jackson (4th round)	88	SS Brown, 2nd round reach who proved out	5	CB Kevin Garrett
41	SS Darius, reach in late 1st. but proved out.	46	CB Bly, 3rd round value.	NR	CB Jason Webster, 2nd round reach.	6	DB Nnmadi Asomugha
21	CB Kelly, value at top of 2nd.	31	CB Bryant, late 1st BPA type.	83	SS Beckett, a 2nd round reach.	7	DB Charles Tillman
15	FS Williams, BPA type in mid-1st	NR	CB Jason Craft (5th round)	NR	SS Kenoye Kennedy, (2nd round) Could be upgraded.	8	CB Drayton Florence
32	FS Jones, mild reach at late 1st.	NR	SS Cory Hall (3rd round)	NR	CB David Macklin, (3rd round reach) Starts but is an upgrade target.	9	SS Bryan Scott
NR	CB Eric Warfield (7th round).� Chiefs like him enough to have given a big extension.	84	CB McCutcheon, 3rd round value.	NR	CB William Bartee, (2nd round reach) Another upgrade target.	10	NCB Rod Babers
47	SS Tony Parrish, BPA type in 2nd round.	NR	FS K. Carpenter (FA)	NR	CB� Mario Edwards (6th round).	11	FS Colin Branch
23	FS Corey Chavous, value in top of 2nd round.	NR	CB Jerry Azmuth (5th round)	NR	CB Reggie Howard (FA).	12	SS Terrence Keil
36	CB RW McQuarters, mild reach in late 1st.	NR	FS Rich Coady (3rd round)	NR	CB David Barrett, (4th round value). Still, not exactly a dominator.	13	DB Jesse Sowells
NR	CB Artrell Hawkins (2nd round reach)			NR	SS Arturo Freeman (5th round) Started in Miami but has received little interest in FA.	14	NCB BJ Tucker
27	CB Terry Fair			NR	FS Mike Green (7th round).� Bears need an upgrade here.	15	NCB Blue Adams
NR	FS Izell Reese (6th round)			NR	SS David Bowen (6th round).� Skins will upgrade.	16	SS Jeremy Shabazz
	Taylor, McDonald, Blackmon and Williams either are scrubs or out of the league.		IMO, Edwards, Vinson and Smith are scrubs; Poindexter and Fisher are out of the league.		Anderson, Charlton, Green, Sanders, Goodrich, Roman, Kelly, Poteat and Berry have yet to develop.	17	CB Leigh Bodden

 

10 to 13 of the players on the �98 list could be described as quality starters, fewer, maybe 8-10 of the �99 class get the same moniker but even that figure dwarfs the class of 2000 where no one after Rogers Beckett (#7 above) could get the nod.� There are (11) NR safeties and (10) NR CB listed but the quality is with safeties like Schulters, Jackson and Wesley.� The top NR CB, Warfield and Webster, are not in that class.� This suggests that it�s CB early or not at all; that conclusion is identical that reached previously in So you want to draft a QB?

 

Leaving the DB and the 50/50 mark achieved by prognosticators there, consider the prospect ranking of some of the players picked by the Steelers in the years �98-�00.

 

1998		1999		2000
Rank	Player	Rank	Player	Rank	Player
34	Jeremy Staat	18	Toy	5	Spike
42	Alan Faneca	45	Kris Farris	31	Marvel Smith
60	Chris Conrad	50	Amoz	61	Danny Farmer
68	Hines Ward	75	Joey Porter	77	Hank Poteat
71	Fu	81	Jerame Tuman
		88	Aaron Smith
NR	Townsend, Simmons	NR	Scott Shields (well, that was right!)	NR	Clancy, Haggans.

 

Staat, Conrad, Edwards, Farris, Shields, Farmer and Poteat busted; of those, only Shields could have been considered a �reach� where drafted.� Your other �reach� is Faneca but, of course, Alan proved out.� Farris and Farmer were huge �values� but again, that didn�t develop though other such: Ward, Fu, Amoz, Tuman and Aaron Smith rewarded the designation, more or less.� Results were similarly mixed for players picked �where they should have been�:� Porter, Spike and Marvel Smith made the value nut but that can�t be said for either Staat or Conrad.

 

We can talk about �value� and BPA but the record shows little reality attaches to that distinction.� That is, there is little proven operational difference between �reach� and �value at the spot.�� For example, in �98 CB like Fair, McQuarters, Chavous and Kelly were drafted ahead of Surtain and Rolle and, while, that did follow form, form did not predict performance.� That said, there are observable broad slot effects; after Rolle was drafted at 2.46, only (1) more CB taken (Eric Warfield) developed as a starter.� As demonstrated here (and previously), it�s early or not at all at CB but any time is the right time at safety.

 

The last is true for QB too though, hilariously, some of the glittering jewels in the local sport chat or print media are citing Tommy Maddox�s age as a factor in the Steelers� draft process.� That�s ludicrous; there is no position on the field where age matters less than at QB. �In fact, age (or experience) has been a positive for many players at the position to include: Gannon, Garcia, Brad Johnson among others.� In contrast, DB generally die the death at 30 or so.� The following Steelers are ordered by birth date, let�s do the numbers:

 

Brent Alexander, 7/10/71.

Tommy Maddox, 9/2/71.

Dewayne Washington, 12/27/72.

Chad Scott, 9/6/74.

Mike Logan, 9/15/74.

Charlie Batch, 12/5/74.

Deshea Townsend, 9/6/75.

 

Alex is older than Maddox but plays a young man�s position.� Washington will be 31 before the 2003 season closes; looking ahead, both Scott and Logan will be 30 when the 2004 campaign begins (though Logan isn�t currently under contract for that season).� Regardless, the age charge should be lodged were it belongs; that is in the Steelers� D-backfield.�

 

That is the unit that presses the sal-cap too and, if you think the salary structure is misaligned at QB now, imagine a QB prospect at 1.27 getting, say, Kendall Simmons money.� Drafted just past 27 last year, Simmons got a 3.2M bonus and hit the cap for 935.6K.� That exceeds the pre-incentive 2003 hits for both Maddox and Batch; income-wise, that package exceeds any likely incentive-realized 2003 income for Maddox and Batch combined.�� Any 1.27 deal will dwarf the QB contracts but, in contrast, would be trifling compared to what DW and Scott haul down.� Slot-wise, cap-wise, performance-wise, it�s going to be CB or safety, not QB.� Get used to it.