Stillers @ Titans Pregame Analysis (AFC
Divisional Playoff)
The Stillers travel to The
Coliseum in Nashville to take on their long-time rivals in the 2nd round of the
AFC playoffs.� The Titans, of course,
got a bye last week, by virtue of winning the AFC South and having a better
record than the Stillers.� These teams
played each other in game #10 (see the post-game report), with
the Titans emerging victorious amidst a rather severe whipping on both sides of
the line of scrimmage.�
* When the
Titans have the ball,
they�ll bring a somewhat banged up offense into this game.� Steve McNair has been hampered the past
couple month, but he has bravely fought it off and hasn't missed a start.� Banged up as he was, McNair had to be
extremely grateful for the extra week of rest.�
Star receiver Kevin Dyson was shelved for the season several weeks
ago.� They've had some small injuries
that have nagged their O-line, too.� The
Titans don't possess an electric offense by any means, but they have a veteran
offense that can be pretty good when they get things rolling.� To be sure, they've got their fair share of
skill players: McNair, Freddie George, Derrick Mason, and Frank Wycheck.� McNair, of course, is the ringmaster.� As noted, he was banged up all year, and
despite what some might refer to as lukewarm numbers, he had a truly MVP-type
season.� Quarterbacking is much more
than slinging passes, and a huge attribute of a good QB is leadership.� Few took a team on his shoulders in '02 and
led as well as McNair.�
Tenn Running game vs.
Pit defense: Freddie
George carries the bulk of the load, although Robert Holcombe emerged this
season as a solid backup, rushing for 5.1 YPC on 242 carries.� George was a bit quiet, averaging just 3.4
YPC and gaining only 1165 yards.� Of
course, as has been far too overlooked, combining the numbers of these 2 backs
gives Tenn pretty good overall ground production.� Two numbers also stick out in a positive light for George -- 12
TDs, and only 1 fumble.� Not
shabby.� George also grabbed 36 passes,
and is obviously a threat catching short dumps out of the backfield and then
turning upfield for good RAC yardage.�
Greg Comella mans the FB spot in an adequate but unspectacular
manner.� The Titans would love to be
able to chew some clock and pound the ball with George, but the Stillers run
defense is stingy enough that it's not very likely that Tenn will have much
sustained success on the ground.�� Edge:
Stillers
Tenn OL vs. Pit Front 7:
The Titans posses a
solid veteran O-line.� Their strength is
obviously on the left side, where stellar LT Brad Hopkins and ox-strong LG Zach
Piller man the fort.� Both men, though,
have been hampered by recent injuries, although both will start.� Gennarro DiNapoli -- who sounds more like
the proprietor of a pizza parlor in Bloomfield -- does the centering
chores.� Benji Olson is an ok veteran
RG.� The weakest link is at RT, where
Fred Miller -- who was cast away by the Rams soon after they won their Super
Bowl -- has toiled in mediocrity the past couple of seasons for Tenn.� Casey Hampton should have an easy time
chewing up the pizza man, DiNapoli, but DEs Smith and Kimo will have much more
rigorous tests.� Bailey, who often
spells Kimo at the RDE, will surely have some problems with the Hopkins/Piller
combo.� At TE, Wycheck is a very
under-rated blocker, and backup Erron Kinney is a strong, mauling blocker who
has personally tossed Jason Gildon about like a toddler on several occasions over
the past 3 seasons.
����� For the Stillers, the monumental importance is on Kendrell
Bell, who played an outstanding game in last week's win over Clev.� Bell's ability to read plays, and then crush
RBs, is unparalleled on this Stiller defense, and the drop-off when he's not in
the game is massive.� James Farrior will
need to have his helmet strapped on tight to help clamp down on George.� The Titans allowed only 21 sacks all year �-- granted, McNair obviously escapes from a
lot of protection breakdowns -- so the LBs have a stern task as far as putting
heat and harassment on the QB.� The key
is rushing while not doing it so recklessly that McNair easily skirts from
pressure and scampers for big yardage or hits an open receiver on a
scramble.� In the last game vs. Tenn,
the Stillers had no sacks & little pressure, and their front 7 was manhandled
by the Titans� O-line.� Edge:
(assuming Bell plays) Even
Tenn WR vs. Pit
secondary: The loss
of Dyson was brutal, because over the years Dyson has been a reliable and
high-impact playmaker.� Mason, however,
is hardly chopped liver.� He led the
team in receiving in 10 of their games, and led the team with 79 grabs and
1,012 yards.� Opposite Mason will be
Drew Bennett, who is a big target at 6'-5". Benny isn't a burner, but he's
emerged as a capable possession receiver who is strong, athletic, and
smart.� Benny, in fact, grabbed 33
passes at a 14.5 YPC clip, which isn't shabby at all for a "possession
receiver".� Lurking at the #3WR is
2nd-year man Justin McCareins, who emerged with 19 grabs and a gaudy 15.8
YPC.� Stiller fans should remember his
55-yard grab when he tooled Chad Scott on a deep bomb in game #10.� Wycheck remains one of the game's better
TEs, snaring 40 passes and serving as a very trusty security blanket for
McNair.�
����� On the Stillers side of the ball, the Stiller secondary was
not only torched and scorched by the Clev Browns last week, but they also lost
perhaps their most versatile DB, Mike Logan, to a knee injury and injured
reserve.� Logie played everywhere in
this defense -- S, slot CB, and even LB -- and his loss will be sorely
missed.� Another key injury is the one
Chad Scott is recovering from (thumb), which kept him out of last week's
contest.� Fortunately, Chad will play
this week, but it remains to be seen how effective he will be, especially in
the areas of chucking and tackling.�
(Then again, with the Stillers' softee style of playing 10 yards off the
LOS, Chad shouldn't have any problems with chucking.)� Safeties Brent Alexander and Lee Flowers were no more helpful to
the pass defense last week than an anchor thrown to a drowning man, and they'll
need to do much better on Sat.� As I
said last week, although it might be asking for a bit much, it would be nice if
the safeties can defend a pass now and then during this game.� CBs DeWayne Washington and D. Townsend, the
only healthy and experienced CBs remaining, will be key figures, and the
team will be counting on them for a strong game.� Hank Poteat, thrust into major PT due to the rash of injuries,
was horrible last week, and I can't expect things to change dramatically in
only 6 days.� Edge:� Titans
The key matchup will be the Tenn offensive scheme
against the Stiller defense.� As Tim Lewis already
announced to the NFL a few weeks ago, playing vanilla, mano-o-mano football
against this Stiller defense is brave stupidity at its worst.� Like Butch Davis last week, the huge decision by Fisher comes down to this: will
Fisher go vanilla and try to pound the ball on the ground with a basic 2 WR, 1
FB, 1 TE set, or will he use his senses and go with a majority of 3 WRs?�
����� The injury to Dyson, combined with the desire to chew clock,
might convince Fisher to go vanilla and use the bland 2 WR set.� This, of course, is sheer stupidity.� Some will claim -- just as they did last
week -- that "the opponent doesn't have enough good WRs" or "the
opponent doesn't have a strong enough passing game" to spread the Stiller
defense.� The fallacy is thinking that
the Titans, without the 4 splendid WRs like Clev had, can't pass the ball on
the Stillers.� Nothing could be further
from the truth, and even if Coach Fisher has to trot out backup QB Neil
O'Donnell to play WR, he's got enough bodies to get done what he needs to do,
and that's spread the field with 3 WRs and a TE.� The Titans have Mason, Bennett, McCariens,
& Wycheck, which is certainly better than that Raven WR/TE corps of Taylor,
Hymes, and Heap that tore up the Stillers to the tune of 336 yards in week
16.� Because the Titans don't have a
talented, experiencef #4 WR, and because they possess such a fine all-around TE
like Wycheck, they'd be better off mostly forgetting the 4-WR set and going
with 3 wides plus the TE.� Wycheck is
more than capable of helping to block in the running game, and facing a team
that couldn't cover a TE even with a gigantic tarp, Wycheck -- who can easily
be split wide -- should find some easy pickins' in the passing game.� And, just as I noted in my pre-game last
week, if you spread out the Stillers, you get enormous opportunities at riches
and wealth.� You get mismatches that are
so lopsided -- such as Lee Flowers on Todd Heap or Jason GilDong on David
Patten or Lee Flowers on Andre Davis -- that the laughter is almost deafening.� By spreading the field, you get the good
athletes -- especially Joey Porter and/or KenBell -- out of the box or off the
field altogether.� Fisher can still
attempt to pound the ball with George or Holcomb, but he can do it out of a 3
WR offense.� Spreading the field out
might also give McNair some running room on impromptu scrambles as well as
designed QB draws and boots.� Although
Holcomb passed superbly last week, the Stillers had no worry whatsoever about
his scrambling and ad-libbing.� This
week's task is much tougher.� Somehow,
Billy Cowher and Tiny Tim Lewis have got to figure out how to pressure and
contain McNair, because otherwise McNair can play a lot of easy pitch-and-catch
or take off with the ball for large chunks of yardage.� The miserable dilemma facing Lewis, as it
has been all season, is that his best coverage LB is his best pure pass-rusher
(Porter), while his weakest pass rusher is his absolute worst coverage
linebacker (Gildon).� It thus becomes
the classic case of damned if ya do and damned if ya do.� Edge:�
(If Fisher goes with the 3 wides) Titans
*
When the Stillers have the ball, they'll bring a high-octane offense that is spearheaded,
not by the run, but by an aerial assault that has few peers when it is
"on".� The Stillers have the
ability to pound the ball on the ground, but their confidence in the passing
game is at an all-time high after last week's comeback victory that was made
possible by a prolific passing game.� QB
Tommy Maddox will be returning to the scene of the hideous injury that left him
temporarily paralyzed, although I doubt that will have any affect at all on his
bearing and execution.�
Stiller running game vs.
Tenn defense: The
Stillers abandoned the 3-man committee last week and went mostly with Amoz Z,
although Chris Fu had some important 4Q work, especially in the passing
game.� The unknown, of course, is Jerome
Bettis, who touched the ball only once last week, for a 2-yard loss.� No player, aside from Jason Gildon, is a
bigger "coach's pet" than Jerome Bettis.� Desperate for any kind of playoff success in order to help his
chances of entering the Hall of Fame, you can better believe that The Tubby
Tailback was pleading, quibbling, and cajoling with Cowher the entire week in
order to garner more playing time this Saturday.� With Fu and Amoz, the Stillers have a more than adequate platoon,
and inserting Bettis for anything more than a decoy would be a case of too many
cooks spoiling the broth.� FB Dan
Kreider is a key cog, due to his ability to deliver crushing blocks to opposing
LBs.
���� On the other side of the ball, most people forget that, while
the Stillers finished #1 in NFL rushing defense, the Titans finished right
behind them at #2.� In the contest
earlier this season, the Titans' line and LBs thoroughly manhandled the Stiller
O-line, which totally bogged down the Stiller running game.� Like the Stiller O-line, the Titans have
invested a lot of money and high draft picks in their D-line, and the defense
has been rewarded with very strong play.�
Edge: Even.
Pit OL vs. Tenn Front 7:
The Stiller O-line
is as experienced and talented as any in the league.� In fact, they might very well be the league's best.� A key concern, of course, is on the right
side of the line, where rookie RG Kendall Simmons was tooled for a pair of
sacks, while RT Marvel Smith always remains a question mark due to his frequent
lapses of poor technique and soft play.�
���� The Titans bring a formidable D-line into this game, led by
DEs Kevin Carter and Jevon Kearse.�
Carter can be prone to moody swings and lackluster play, but when he's
on, he's a top 5 DE in the NFL.� Kearse
missed the last tussle, but he returned to action late in the season and gives
this team a huge emotional boost.� Kearse
will be moved all over the field in an effort to confuse and disrupt the Stiller
blocking schemes.� Carter and Kearse are
unique DEs in that they can pressure the passer all by themselves, one-on-one.
Talented rookie DT Albert Haynesworth helps hold down the middle, and Carolos
Hall and former 2nd round draftee J. Thornton are unheralded but solid
D-lineman.� Leading the way at LB is former
1st round draft pick OLB Keith Bullock, who simply had a monster game versus
Pit earlier this season.� Bullock led
the team in tackles and is a tough, disruptive hitter who loves to do whatever
it takes to get in on the action.� Former
Cowpoke Randall Godfrey, who is a bit on the decline, mans the middle, with acceptable
Peter Sirmon manning the other OLB spot.�
Edge: Even.
Pit WR vs. Tenn secondary:
Ward and Burress
comprise what might be the best WR tandem in the league, and they showed why in
last week's win over Clev.� Rookie
Antwaan Randle El had his best WR production all season in last week's win, and
his emergence as a trusty and productive #3 WR gives this passing offense a
huge boost.� Veteran Terrence Mathis
provides good reliability at the #4 spot.��
���� The Titans have had their share of problems in covering the
Stiller receivers the past 3 meetings.�
CBs Samari Rolle and Andre Dyson are no slouches, but they lack the
physicality to disrupt and cover the Stiller duo.� However, Fisher likes to use his LBs to help the CBs on the
inside.� A novel idea for Pittsburgh
fans to consider, but perfectly legal.� Fisher
also likes to get his CBs up tight with the WRs from time to time.� Again, novel when compared to the Stiller
12-yard CB cushion, but perfectly legal.�
FS Lance Schulters has few peers in the NFL, and certainly won't see any
when he gazes across the field at the opposing sideline.� Rookie SS Tank Williams had a fine rookie
campaign, placing 3rd on the team in solo tackles and giving the defense a lot
spark and exuberance.� He's still
learning pass coverage, but when there's a hit to be made, The Tank doesn't
mind doing the chore.� The Titans will
obviously have to reach into the bench to use a nickel or dime defense, but
their depth is pretty skimpy.�� Edge:
Stillers, by a large margin.
The key matchup will be the Stiller blitz
prevention/rapid reaction against the Titans� blitzing defense.� The Titans are stout enough up front that
the Stillers will have a steep challenge trying to grind it out.� The Stiller passing game can be white hot
when it�s clicking, and the Titan pass defense has had even more problems that
the Stillers' in 2002.� The wild-card in
this matchup is the effect of the Titan blitz.�
In the last meeting, the Titans blitzed Maddox early and often, and the
pressure forced The Madd Ox into multiple horrific INTs, several punishing
hits, and numerous misfires.� The run-blitz
Tenn used in the last meeting also bottled up the Stiller ground game.� Fisher had to have seen the positive effect
Clev had when they rushed more than 4 men last week, as opposed to the
negative effect they had when they rushed 4 or fewer men.� Fisher knows his D-backs simply aren't deep
and talented enough to handle the Stillers' 4 wides for 4-5 seconds on a pass
play.� And I've got to believe that
Fisher won't allow the NFL's slowest QB to stand statuesque in the pocket and
play pitch-and-catch, by sending a variety of blitzes designed to hurry,
disrupt, and harass Maddox.� How Maddox
fares against those blitzes -- he didn't fare well at all in game #10 -- will
determine success or failure on offense.�
Edge: Even
* Special Teams: �The Stillers coughed up a critical fumble on a PR, but otherwise
had some ST success last week, with El taking a PR to the house.� On the down side, Reed's KOs were a bit
shallow, and the coverage was hardly adequate.�
Reed also missed his only FG last week.�
����� The Titans aren't flourishing with spec teams prowess, but as
in any playoff game involving a Billy Cowher-coached team, the opponent has a
reasonable chance of cashing in on a big play from their spec teams.� Simon and McCareins handle the KO chores,
and although they've not lit the lamp, McCareins had his longest KO return of
the season (48 yards) against -- you guessed it -- the Stillers.� Mason and Simon handle the PR chores, and
obviously Mason is dangerous any time he has the ball in his hands.� In fact, Mason's longest PR of the season
(21 yards) came against -- you guessed it -- the Stillers.� The punting/kicking combo of Hentrich and
Nedney is as good as there is in the NFL.�
Edge: Tenn, simply because with the combination of playoff football
and Billy Cowher, you can pretty much expect an abortion to occur with the
special teams.�
Coaching:�
Jeff Fisher did a superb job to keep his team together and energized
after the horrendous 1-4 start.� Fisher
has always had his men fired up and highly focused when facing the
Stillers.� Sure, the Titans lost to the
Stillers twice last season, but much of that can be attributed to the scourge
of injuries that crippled the Titans.�
On the whole of his coaching career, Fisher has literally owned
Billy Cowher -- going 8-2 the past 10 meetings -- and seems to have a personal
vendetta.� I have to believe that this
stems from the fact that Cowher, as a special teamer, ruined Fisher's playing
career with a legal tackle of Fish on a punt return, which wrenched Fish�s knee.� Fisher exudes the persona that he strongly
dislikes Billy Cowher, and Fisher's years of success against the Stillers give
The Fish a lot of confidence when facing The Chin.�
����� No coach in modern NFL history has done so little with so
much in the playoffs, as has Billy Cowher.�
During his past 7 forays into the playoffs, Cowher has shown a blatant,
ostrich-like indifference to proper preparation, sound strategy, and in-game
adjustments.� (Be sure to read last
year's "How to
Beat the Stillers in the playoffs", which is still applicable
today.)� Only a fluke, 4th quarter
comeback at home against a weak Clev team allowed Cowher to avoid yet another
bullet of disgrace.� The Stiller-Titan
matchup is ironic, because just a couple years ago, Cowher, after calling a TO
in the closing minute of a tight game, refused to double cover the only
healthy WR on the Titans (Mason) who'd ever caught an NFL pass,
ever.� The result on the 4th & 13:
an easy completion to Mason for about 16 yards, and the Titans then trotted out
their kicker to boot� the game-winning
FG.� At any rate, trusting one's playoff
hopes to the likes of Marty Shittenheimer Jr. -- Billy Cowher -- is like
trusting the security of a cash vault to a rabid drug addict.� Edge: Tenn
Intangibles:
- The "hot"
team:� The tendency, of course, is for most
fans to fawn profusely over whichever team just played in Round 1, while
belittling the team that had the prior week off.� Last season, the Ravens were the darlings of the NFL after they
whipped Miami.� A week later, the Ravens
had their asses handed back by the Stillers.�
Back in Jan. 1997, the Stillers dispatched of the lowly Colts in the 1st
round, and headed to Foxboro amid great fanfare about how strong, dominant, and
stupendous the Black n' Gold were looking.�
The Pats proceeded to issue one of the very worst playoff beatings in
Stiller history.� In most cases, the
winner in a "wild-card round" isn't quite as good as they looked in
dispatching of a weakling wild-card team, and the follow-on opponent that is
hosting the home playoff game is a bit better than some folks' memories allow
them to recall.� Related to that is the
fact that no team played better football down the stretch than the Titans, who
went 10-1 after their horrendous 1-4 start.�
- Rest:�
Obviously, the banged up Titans have had some good rest, while the
Stillers got jobbed by the NFL and got only 6 days rest.�
- Bye week: �The bye gave the Titans a boatload of time to prepare and
game-plan for the Stillers.� On the
other side, Billy Cowher is the kind of slow-thinking dullard who needs every
hour he can get in order to prepare for a game.� 6 days doesn't seem enough for a coach of Cowher's limited
ability to devise a sound game plan.��
- Riding "the wave
of emotion":� Billy Cowher mentioned this in his press
conference.� Step back and ask yourself:
on one of the greatest days of your life -- birth of a child; or your wedding;
or the prom; or the best date you ever went on -- how many days did this
"wave of emotion" last?�� 2
?�� Human "waves of emotion"
don't last 6 or 7 days.� They go down
within a day or 2, and then rise back up based on stimuli.�
- Taking the opponent
too easy: Due to
the ease they had in issuing that spanking in game #10, the Titans could take
the Stillers too lightly.� This is
certainly a key issue, and it will be interesting to see if Fisher and his
staff allow it to happen.�
- Home field:�
Tenn is not invincible in Nashville, but they're pretty tough.� They went 6-2 this season at The
Coliseum.� You'll recall the
difficulties the Clev offense had last week, trying to hear audibles and
signals amidst the loud crowd noise.�
This week, Tommy Maddox gets a dose of that in what promises to be an
incredibly loud venue.� Billy Cowher has
most often had the luxury of playing playoff games at home, and has never won a
road playoff game.� (0-2 record).�
* Synopsis: The Stillers got a grand reprieve
when they were able to come back and steal victory from defeat from the Clev
Brownies. The Stillers have a potent offense that can help carry this team deep
in to the playoffs.� They also have the
ability to play tough, physical football.�
However, the Titans have a good bit of toughness on their side, and
their team is still steamed over the perceived lack of respect following the
pro bowl announcement that included no Titans.�
This should be a fairly high scoring affair, full of lots of emotion and
hitting.� Losing in the playoffs is an
inevitability for Billy Cowher, and it may as well come on Saturday.� With the Titan blitz, McNair's quarterbacking,
the Nashville crowd, and 1 grave Stiller special teams failure, the Titans will
emerge with a 29-23 victory.�