Know Thine Enemies � 2004 AFC North
Preview by Steel
Soul
If the Steelers� faithful awoke one morning to hear that the NFL realignment committee had convened the previous night to renew old acquaintances, enhanced their moods with an extra shot or ten of their favorite 80 proof inhibition eraser, and in their state of alcohol-induced giddiness decided to punk (thank you Mr. Kutcher for your comedic genius) the Steelers by transferring them to any other division in the NFL, supporters of the Black and Gold could set their sights on a third place finish as a lofty goal. But like a genetic experiment in parity gone horribly awry, the AFC North will continue to exist in its present state. The other rust belt freaks of football, referred to as rivals in less critical circles, provide Steeler backers with the optimistic ray of light we need as the sun breaks the horizon at the dawn of the 2004 season.
Baltimore
Ravens
2003: 10-6, First
Place.
Division Results (Game
#): Loss @Pittsburgh 15-34 (1), Win Cleveland 33-13 (2), Loss @Cincinnati 26-34
(6), Win Cincinnati 31-13 (13), Win @Cleveland 35-0 (15), Win Pittsburgh 13-10
Overtime (16)
NFL Ranking (per game
basis):
Offense: Overall
21st 308.1 yards, Rush 1st 166.8 yards, Pass
32nd 141.3 yards, Points 8th 24.4.
Defense: Overall
3rd 271.3 yards, Rush 6th 96.0 yards, Pass 4th
175.3 yards, Points 6th 17.6.
Turnover Margin +3
Ravens� Offseason
Activity
Key Acquisitions: WR
Kevin Johnson, projected starter, QB Kordell Stewart, 2nd string, CB
Dale Carter (won�t play due to a blood clot found in his
lung)
Key Losses: CB Tom
Knight, WR Marcus Robinson
Significant Draftees
(Round): (2) DT Dwan Edwards, Oregon State, (3) WR Devard Darling, Washington
State.
Baltimore expended so
much energy attempting to ink Sharpie Owens, and the fiasco that ensued, that
free agency passed by with alarmingly little activity. As if the T.O. situation didn�t provide
enough airtime for Poe�s birds, Jamal Lewis found himself named as part of a
group who intended to distribute cocaine in 2000. The accusations and witnesses in this
case have very little chance of prohibiting Jamal from suiting up for this
season. With all of the turmoil
created by Owens and Lewis, Baltimore took a low (as-a-snail�s-ass) key approach
to the draft and didn�t select anyone of noticeable impact. However, if Devard Darling shows
something resembling a pulse in camp, he could easily find himself in the
three-wide sets of the worst group of receivers in the division. Oft troubled CB Dale Carter was signed
as a possible starter, or definite nickel package CB, but the blood clot found
in his lung means that Dale will be out for 2004. On a brighter note, Kordell is back in
the division, thankfully on another team.
If Boller Project 2 is as successful as the first installment, don�t be
surprised to see old #10 kicking up turf with his feet and passes as a belated
Christmas present to Steeler fans on December 26th.
Ravens�
Offense: Remember the �76
Steelers? Supposed offensive genius
Beavis Billick must, because he�s using their playbook. He�s gonna run, run, run unless
the DEA takes J-Lew away. The
O-line and Jamal Lewis set the tone and remain outstanding, other than Lewis�
slippery fingers. Nothing
exceptionally new or exciting regarding the offensive philosophy, and there
shouldn�t be considering the lack of talent of the passers and catchers. Anthony Wright�s shoulder will probably
keep him out for the year. In the
understatement of the year, that�s not a major loss. The big question marks are in the shapes
of #8 and maybe even a Slash. Jim
Fassel was brought in from the Giants to tutor Boller, but those whispers you
are hearing from the city by the Chesapeake are saying �bust�. The lone bright spot of the passing game
is TE Todd Heap. Note to Steeler
homers � NFL rules do permit the ball to be thrown to the TE. Heap led all Baltimore receivers in �03,
catching 18 more passes than their top producing wideout, Travis Taylor. Polamalu, Hope, and Farrior will be the
key defenders in halting the Ravens� running and passing games. New WR Kevin Johnson won�t test the
speed of the Steelers� secondary, as he only averaged 10.4 ypc last year. If nothing else, he�ll provide some
consistency to a below average group underachievers. I wonder what Billick would give to hear
Cris Carter screaming at Randy Moss again.
Ravens�
Defense: Everyone knows the
Ravens� character comes from their stifling defense. They rank in the top ten in everything
from trash talk to takeaways. Their
run stoppers put opposing offenses in 3rd and long situations often,
which resulted in the unit allowing only 29.4% of third downs to be converted,
and helped them to post a league leading 47 sacks. Besides having his name called on
seemingly every tackle, Joey Porter�s archenemy Ray-Ray pitched in with 6 picks
and 14 passes defensed. No one
currently in the league or 30 years removed from it matches Lewis� intensity and
production. Lewis, Suggs, Boulware,
Hartwell, Reed, McAlister � hate them, but respect them. As of this writing, Boulware won�t be
camping because of a knee injury and Chris McAlister has yet to sign after being
designated as the team�s franchise player.
Even without them, the talent on this side of the ball is
immense.
Ravens� Special
Teams: Stover is pretty much
automatic within 50 yards, splitting the uprights at a 92% clip last year. Jermaine, the other Lewis, used to kill
the Steelers on returns, but he left town before 2003 and their average was a
paltry 7.7 yards per return. The
Ravens coverage units were middle of the pack, but they gave up big plays at big
times, resulting in losses to the Chiefs and Rams.
Ravens in
2004:
Two schools of thought on how to play Baltimore can be applied. One is to attack the secondary. In their two losses within the division,
the Ravens allowed the Steelers and Bengals an average of 8.1 and 9.4 yards per
pass, respectively. While it may be
too long to wait, a good barometer of this theory will come in game 14 at
Indy. The other theory is to play
the waiting game. In the Ravens� 6
regular season defeats, they were 16 to the bad in give and take. With a young QB, and Jamal putting the
ball on the turf once every other game, opportunities will present
themselves. The blackbirds also
crapped in their own nest with the 4th most penalties in the NFL last
year. If their opponents hold onto
the ball, the Ravens offense isn�t explosive enough to blow anyone out. Playing conservative, mistake free
football, and winning the special teams battle will keep a team in the game with
a chance to win at the end. Still,
with all of those purple playmakers, I�ve got to give the Ravens the A-North
again with a 10-6 record.
Cincinnati
Bengals
2003: 8-8, Second
Place.
Division Results (Game
#): Loss Pittsburgh 10-17 (3), Win @Cleveland 21-14 (4), Win Baltimore 34-26
(6), Win @Pittsburgh 24-20 (12), Loss @Baltimore 13-31 (13), Loss Cleveland
14-22 (16)
NFL Ranking (per game
basis):
Offense: Overall
13th 333.1 yards, Rush 13th 124.2 yards, Pass
12th 208.9 yards, Points 13th 21.6.
Defense: Overall
28th 351.3 yards, Rush 25th 138.6 yards, Pass
24th 212.6 yards, Points 28th 24.0.
Turnover Margin
+2
Bengals� Offseason
Activity
Key Acquisitions: MLB
Nate Webster, starter, FS Kim Herring, starter, RG Bobbie Williams, starter, LCB
Deltha O�Neal, starter
Key Losses: RG Mike
Goff, RCB Artrelle Hawkins, LCB Jeff Burris, LB Adrian Ross, RB Corey
Dillon
Significant Draftees
(Round): (1) RB Chris Perry, Michigan, (2) CB Keiwan Ratliff, Florida, (2) S
Madieu Williams, Maryland, (3) LB Caleb Miller, Arkansas, (3) LB Landon Johnson,
Purdue.
The Bengals were
definitely busy after their breakout 2003 season ended. What they accomplished remains a
question. Most experts view O�Neal
and Williams as downgrades from former starters Artrelle Hawkins and Mike Goff,
although O�Neal played in the Pro Bowl in 2002. Herring last saw the field in 2002, so
the rust will have to be shaken off before he can become effective. The arrival of Webster pushes Kevin
Hardy to the outside. Rudi Johnson,
already looking for a new contract, will have to deal with the pressure of
1st round pick Chris Perry looking to hit the field. As of this writing, Perry and Ratliff
had not signed. The Bungles may
have simply forgotten about them, since they had 75 other draft picks.
Bengals�
Offense: While Marvin Lewis
made the Bengals play with passion, some of the moves on the offensive side of
the ball will be heavily scrutinized.
He replaces one of the more productive QB�s in the league with 2003 #1
overall pick Carson Palmer. On
Lewis� behalf, he already stated that the top cat of the 2003 draft will have a
tight collar, so Kitna could return sooner than later. Early reports out of the Jungle state
that Marvin and O-Coordinator Bob Bratkowski feel Palmer�s progress has been
significant in min-camp. He
certainly has more weapons and a better O-line than former first round flops
David Klingler and Akili Smith.
Back-up Kitna will be ready to take the helm should the striped cats�
attack falter. Palmer�s
insertion into the line-up will likely reduce the effectiveness of 1,300 yard
Pro Owl receiver Chad Johnson and Peter Warrick, who enters the final year of
his rookie contract looking to post big numbers to see the big money. In the backfield, Rudi Johnson
experienced more offseason highs and lows than Ricky Williams. In a show of confidence in Rudi, the
Bengals finally rid themselves of Whiny Dillon, and then they usurped that boost
by drafting Perry in the first round.
Rudi wants a new contract based on his performance in 2003, when he
carried for over 150 yards in three games, but the Bengals appear to be looking
beyond him already. Perry is a
better receiver than Rudi, and he should get some chances in third down
situations. Starting left tackle
Levi Jones and left guard Eric Steinbach are hurting as camp enters its second
week.
Bengals�
Defense: The Dolphins� defense
was proud of its �No-name� moniker in their early 70�s heyday. The orange and black attack may be
trying to mimic this approach, but it looks more like the �John Doe� defense �
they have no identity. If this team
was to ascend into the playoffs, the defense would be the key. Other than
their +2 in turnovers, they ranked 24th or lower in every major defensive
category, including permitting a brutal 4.8 yards per rush. To
address this concern, they drafted Perry at RB out of Michigan. Their
revamped secondary will consist of three new starters, so lack of continuity
early in the year will be a good excuse for the simple fact that
they can't tackle and cover. Even Tommy Two-Pick carved up the
Bengals for an average of 275 yards in two games last year. One new body that may help is Nate
Webster from the Buccaneers. The
new MLB will allow Kevin Hardy to move to his natural position on the
outside. Hardy admitted himself
that he was often out of position in the Bengals one-gap scheme. Webster�s experience with a winner could
add some much needed swagger to this unit.
Bengals� Special
Teams: The Bengals coverage
units were solid, ranking 10th on kickoffs and 11th on
punts, but their return game was pretty vanilla. On kickoffs, if you looked hard enough,
you could actually see Brandon Bennett praying that the ball would slice out of
bounds. Warrick did provide a
slippery 10.9 yards per punt return last year, including a 68-yard TD in their
upset win over the Chiefs. PK
Shayne Graham knocked in 88% of his FG�s in 2003 and was perfect on extra
points. The punting game was bad
enough that there will be a competition between incumbent Kyle Richardson and
Eddie Johnson, formerly of the Vikings.
Bengals in 2004:
A lot
was made of Marvin Lewis' effect on the Bengals last year. Management
showed their appreciation for the Bengals first non-losing season since the
advent of the Internet by giving him a $2+ million a year, four-year
extension. Maybe Rooney and Co. secretly head up the front
office in Cincy, too. You can't deny their 8-8 record would be like
an undefeated season for top tier franchises. If the 2003 Queen
City Kitties were anything, they were consistently schizophrenic.
They started and ended the 2003 season like the old Bungholes, posting
a 1-4 record out of the gate, and stumbling to the finish at 1-3,
which included pathetic displays against Baltimore and Cleveland when
the playoffs were within reach. Sandwiched in the middle of this
moldy bun of a year was a filet mignon 6-1 record, with wins
over three playoff teams. Consider also that they lost to Arizona,
Buffalo, and Oakland in 2003, and all I can say with
confidence for 2004 is don't lay money on their games. With an
offense destined to initially suffer under Palmer, and the decision in the
offseason to replace lackluster personnel on defense with equally mediocre
players, 8-8 would be welcome in 2004. Teams will still be able to run and
pass on their D, and the offense won't be as explosive under Heisman Boy.
6-10 in 2004 sounds about right.
Cleveland
Browns
2003: 5-11, Absolute
Last Place.
Division Results (Game
#): Loss @Baltimore 13-33 (2), Loss Cincinnati 14-21 (4), Win @Pittsburgh 33-13
(5), Loss Pittsburgh 6-13 (11), Loss Baltimore 0-35 (15), Win @Cincinnati 22-14
(16)
Note: In an
unadvertised poll, as ESPN celebrates its 25th anniversary, the
second Steelers-Browns �contest� of 2003 was voted the worst football game of
the last 25 years.
NFL Ranking (per game
basis):
Offense: Overall
26th 281.5 yards, Rush 20th 104.4 yards, Pass
25th 177.1 yards, Points 29th 15.9.
Defense: Overall
15th 309.9 yards, Rush 23rd 132.1 yards, Pass
7th 177.9 yards, Points 12th 20.1.
Turnover Margin
-11
Browns� Offseason
Activity
Key Acquisitions: QB
Jeff Garcia, starter, DE Ebenezer Ekuban, starter, FB Terrelle Smith, starter,
LG Kelvin Garmon, starter, OLB Warrick Holdman, probable
starter
Key Losses: QB Tim
Couch, G Shaun O� Hara, T Barry Stokes, CB Lewis Sanders, P Chris
Gardocki
Significant Draftees
(Round): (1) TE Kellen Winslow Jr., Miami, (2) S Sean Jones, Georgia, (4) QB
Luke McCown, Louisiana Tech.
Out of all of the AFC
North teams, the Browns showed the most production in their forays into free
agency and the 2004 draft. Their
losses on the offensive line were addressed as was the mess created by the
Holcomb/Couch revolving door at QB.
In a division with two inexperienced 2nd year starters and an
insurance salesman, Jeff Garcia is � this is tough to say � the class of the AFC
North QB�s. While Ebenezer Ekuban
may not totally shore up their porous run defense, he does possess play making
ability, something the unit lacked.
Once all-world TE Winslow Jr. decides to accept something less than a
quarter of a trillion dollars and join the team at camp, all of the offensive
skill positions will be as strong as any Browns� team since Elway stole a couple
of playoff games from this cursed franchise.
Browns�
Offense: Former wide
receivers� coach Terry Robiskie was promoted to offensive coordinator (an area
in which he gained experience with the Raiders of the early 90�s) to infuse some
life into an offense that scored 13 points or less in half of their 2003
games. Butch Davis made it very
clear for 2004 that he wants to run the ball and control the flow of the
game. You can say that the Browns' possess the "Un" backfield �
unproven Lee Suggs and underachieving William Green. Suggs opened
the bloodshot eyes of drunken Browns' fans when he torched the Bengals for
186 yards in the 2003 season finale. Early in camp, Suggs appears to have
the upper hand on Green after a solid showing at a scrimmage against the
Bills. No matter who receives the majority of touches, FB
Terrelle Smith will open holes. Mr. Smith was previously known
for his work with the Saints as the chief steamroller for stud RB Deuce
McAllister. Outsiders call the tailback situation a brewing controversy;
Davis and his staff deemed it a luxury to have two premier
young running backs. By signing Jeff Garcia and shipping Couch
off to the land of cheese and snow, the Browns eliminated a problem that
hindered their offensive output last year. Garcia is definitely the
number one, and already made a mark in the leadership category by going public
to tell TE Kellen Winslow Jr. to get to camp. Jeffrey provides accuracy on
short to medium length passes, and also has shown a willingness to tuck the ball
away and run when things break down. He led the Fruity Niners with 7
rushing TD's last year. Speaking of the aforementioned egomaniac Winslow,
contract talks are at a complete standstill with sources stating a difference of
anywhere between $12 million and $22 million separating the sides. As a
Steeler fan, all I can say is that I hope he holds out until 2010. He may
be a loudmouth, but unlike any Dawg Pound denizen, he's a loudmouth with
talent. The Browns already have a solid trio of wideouts to catch the
ball. Dennis Northcutt, Andre' Davis, and Quincy Morgan all show
above average speed and can make people miss after the catch.
Northcutt led the Brownies in receptions and yards in 2003. The
Browns also like to use their receivers on reverses and various types of
trickeration, as the group totaled 20 carries and three passes attempted.
The offensive line is marginal in their ability. This unit did little to
distinguish themselves and mediocrity should be the expectation again in
2004. Granted, injuries were a problem in 2003. The left side of the line is
brand-spankin' new as Ross Verba returns at LT for 2004 after missing all of
last year, and 350-pound Kelvin Garmon joined the pumpkin-heads from San
Diego. Garmon did help Tomlinson run wild in San Diego, so Davis� desire
to run more should be met with enhanced production.
Browns�
Defense: Ask the Steelers
about the Browns run defense and they'll tell you it was like trying to swim
through a pool of sharks, when they averaged a pathetic 85 yards on the ground
in their two games. Ask the rest of the NFL and they'll tell you it stunk
like a bucket full of carp. Jamal Lewis and Ladanian Tomlinson
put together 700 embarrassing yards in three games against the Clowns. Ekuban was brought in from the Cryboys,
but he's more of a rush DE than a run-stopper at only 265 pounds so his addition
won't significantly bolster the run defense. The usual suspects (and that
can be taken however you want to) Gerard Warren, Courtney Brown, our old pal
Orpheus, and Kennard Lang are still there for the base defense, so you know
Jamal Lewis is already counting his incentive money. Talent oozes from the front four, but so
does lackluster desire. Warrick
Holdman arrives from the Windy City, but what he�ll bring to defense is in
question. He didn�t make any plays
from his OLB spot with the Bears.
The pass defense ranked high, but it may have been more a result of the
failings of the run defense. Only
FS Earl Little stood out in the defensive backfield with 6 picks. Once inside the 20, the defense buckled
down to rank 3rd in the NFL in red zone TD % at 37.5.
Browns� Special Teams:
The
Browns� coverage units kept opposing teams out of end zone last year, and their
kickoff unit stood out, ranking 6th in the league. Their return teams were as dull as their
helmets, though. Dennis Northcutt
could not translate his open field running ability to big plays taking back
punts. Their only special teams TD
came on a punt block. Phil Dawson
was fine for a team that had too few opportunities to score in the kicking
game. The Browns decided to replace
the Steelers� huge free agent acquisition Chris Gardocki with a box of cleat
cleaners, so his loss is obviously a major concern.
Browns in 2004: The chair under Butch Davis� feet is teetering and the noose is getting tighter. In his fourth year, the talk in Browntown is centered on make or break time. Cleveland�s offense possesses the horses to stay in any race, but their penchant for turning the ball over often sends them to the glue factory. The Browns didn�t do enough on defense to take a major step forward, but if defensive coordinator Dave Campo can draw consistent intensity out of players like Courtney Brown and Gerard Warren, they can clog their own holes against the run. The team has talent, but sent no one to the Pro Bowl. Is it the coaching staff�s developmental abilities? With a last place schedule and a relatively weak division, look for the Browns to improve a couple of games to 7-9. Whether this record saves Davis� neck will be another story in January.