2004
Game 15 Preview: Ravens at Steelers:
Tom
Brady�s prime time meltdown Monday in Miami changes nothing, as far this game
is concerned.� Before that, this figured
as a must win, what with the Steelers struggling to stay on pace with the Pats in
the race for HFA.� Now, it�s a must win
as, with a lengthening injury list, the Steelers� championship aspirations are
best served if they can preserve their battered starters from the Buffalo
tundra, Game 16 v. the on-rushing Bills.����
By
way of a playoff punch list, the Ravens will give the Steelers all they
need.� That�s because, for Baltimore,
it�s one and done.� The Ravens are one
of four AFC teams at 8-6.� The others
are: Jacksonville, Denver and Buffalo; it figures that at least one, probably
two, will get to 10-6.� At this point,
there�s just one playoff spot in play though, conceivably, the 10-4 Jets could
drop back.� Regardless, one spot open or
two, 10 wins is the number.� Then too,
there�s the opening aspect: if the Steelers win Sunday, the Buffalo game will
mean nothing to them.� That is, since
the Bills� chances to win out two weeks from now rise sharply with a Steeler
win this Sunday, Game 15 does represent the Ravens� season.���
The
Ravens and Steelers share a template: run first O, aggressive 3-4 D.� Since most are familiar with the Ravens�
personnel, this piece will be limited to a few stat comparisons, along with
some featured match-ups.� Beginning with
the defenses:
Steeler and Raven D, NFL wide rankings:
|
|
Ravens
|
Steelers
|
Remarks |
|
Total
yards allowed |
#6 |
#1 |
The
Ravens� D has been on the field for an average 30:24 per game.� The Steelers� D has been on the field an
average of 26:05 per game.� |
|
Points
allowed |
#4 |
#3 |
|
|
Run
D YPC |
#6 #2 |
#1 T-3 |
Both
the Chiefs (Game 4) and Pats (Game 11) ran over the Ravens.� |
|
Pass
D Passer
rating against |
#9 #1 |
#4 #3 |
|
|
Sacks
|
36,
T-9 |
38,
T-7 |
Steelers
have no sacks in the past 2 weeks.� |
|
Takeaways |
29,
T-8 |
28,
T-10 |
After
a fast start, the Steelers have forced >1 takeway in just 1 of their past
5 games. |
Considering
a couple aspects of the match-up between the Steeler O and Raven D:
- Pass protection:� At one point, the Steelers had allowed
just 11 sacks in 159 dropbacks.�
That�s a 6.9% rate, somewhat below the League average this season,
~ 7.2.� Now, they�ve allowed 34
sacks in 347 dropbacks; that�s a rate of 9.8%, which is awful.� Worse, their rate since the bye is
12.2%, about 1 in 8.� Put it this
way: Drew Bledsoe, widely regarded as a statue reared behind one of the
lesser O-lines in all of football, has been sacked 34 times too.� However, Bledsoe has managed to get off
395 balls, 82 more than all Steeler QB (or, about 4 games worth here).
We�ve been over it.� The Steeler OT are getting beat by speed rushers.� Opponents are bringing more than the Steelers can block and, especially thru the gap between Faneca and Smith, the way has been open.� Staley can pick a blitz but the Bus cannot.� The Steelers� hot options are limited because neither their TE nor RB sets figure in the pass game.� Roethlisberger is having problems reading 9 in the box and therefore is missing receivers open downfield.�
Whatever.�
The Ravens� best pass rushers are OLB Terrell Suggs and Adalius
Thomas.� Both are in the 265# range;
both can run.� The next guy is Marques
Douglas, a quick, 290# DE who will line up opposite Oliver Ross.� The Steeler OT will have their hands
full.� In Game 2, the Ravens had 4
sacks, 3 by DB.� They will blitz DB and
ILB; the Steeler O-line will not pick �em all.�
With Duce questionable, Verron Haynes is the Steelers� best pass
protector.� That should factor Sunday.
- The run game:� It is lore that to beat a quick defense
like the Ravens, it is best to run at them.� Certainly the strength of the Steeler O-line is in the
middle 3.� However, it�s worth
noting that both the Chiefs and Pats ran wide effectively against
Baltimore.� The Chiefs� mainstay
run is the stretch; the Pats run best wide off a pitch counter.�� No doubt, that is not the Bus� game,
but it is something Haynes could accomplish.�
- Find Ed Reed:� Since 1996, when the Ravens drafted Ray
Lewis in R1, having earlier gotten Jon Ogden in the same frame, Lewis has
been the centerpiece of the Raven D.�
No more: this season Ray is best known as the prime time Science
Guy, having demonstrated the Doppler effect one Monday in KC; a phase
shift accomplished as Willie Roaf, or Brian Waters, or even FB Tony
Richardson, bulled him downfield.�
Ray can still play but he�s a 9th year guy now and,
well, tick tick.�
With all respect to the Steelers� Troy Polamalu, Ed
Reed is the best S in the AFC North, probably the best in the NFL.� Reed has 8 INT, which leads the league; he
has returned one for a TD, scoring another TD off a FR.� Reed is a factor on ST too, where he is one
of the better edge rushers v. the punt.�
While Ray Lewis remains the Ravens� D-leader, Ed Reed is their best player.
Last
week, the Baltimore D limited Peyton Manning and the Colts to 20 points.� Previously, the Colts� low game was 23.� The Ravens accomplished this by limiting
Manning�s options, especially removing his 3rd WR option.� The Ravens can do this because they have
talent in the secondary: Pro Bowl players Reed and Chris McAlister; CB Gary
Baxter, who moves to the slot in packs; Deion Sanders, who figures when he can
play; Chad Williams, who is a quality 3rd S.� Will Demps starts at FS and Corey Fuller
plays at both CB and S; however, neither makes many plays.� Reed does, with 8 of 17 Raven� picks;
Sanders and Williams are next with 3 each.
With
Burress, the Steeler WR corps matches up pretty well; without, not so
much.� It is a statistical anomaly that
two of the Steelers� three best YPA games occurred with Burress out.� Those were: Jacksonville (9.8) and NJG
(9.7).� However, the Ravens� secondary
is considerably better than either of those, as is their pass rush.� To win Sunday, the PS figure to have to run
effectively, but that�s nothing new.�
Turning to an O comparison:
Steeler and Raven O, NFL wide rankings:
|
|
Ravens |
Steelers |
Remarks |
|
3rd down conversions |
32.8%, 26th |
43.2%, 8th |
Ravens are having problems sustaining drives |
|
YPA |
5.52, 31st |
8.40, 4th |
Ravens� YPA is stunningly bad. |
|
Rush yards Rush attempts |
#8 #9 |
#3 #1 |
Steelers� 533 RA is on pace for 609, the most by any team since Ditka�s Bears. |
|
Giveaways |
22, T-23rd |
16, T-4th |
Steelers have taken care of the ball. |
Considering
some aspects of the match-up between the Baltimore O and Steeler D:
- Much has been made of
the Steelers� 1-2 punch at RB, and for good reason: Bettis and Staley have
1633 yards between them.� However,
the Ravens can counter with Jamal Lewis and Chet Taylor.� This pair has 1509 yards, on 65 fewer
trips.� Last week in Indy, Lewis
went for 130.�� The Ravens have one
of the bigger O-lines in the League; expect to see plenty of Lewis behind
that meat armada Sunday.� Though
limited by a bad ankle and so not the juggernaut of 2003, Jamal Lewis
remains a good, punishing power RB.�
One key will be the Ravens� ability to run to their
right.� Anchored by Aaron Smith, the PS
run D has been strong to this side; however, that figures to get a test
Sunday.� With Zeus Brown and Benny
Anderson, the Ravens have ~720# of blocking mass to that side.� Smith figures to do his end but James
Harrison may be overmatched.� Harrison
is strong enough to play but at barely 6�-0� he�s at a frame length
disadvantage along the LOS.�
- Much has been written
in the last couple months concerning Kyle Boller�s
improvement.� On the plus side,
Boller has had 9TD against just 4 INT in the season�s 2nd half;
on the year, his numbers are 12 and 10. On the downside, (as far as the Ravens
are concerned) he has failed to step up in big games, notably against the
Pats and Colts.� Put it this way,
on the year Boller�s passer rating is 71.2, which is #30 of 33 qualifying
QB.� In the past 6 games, Boller�s
rating is 78.0 which, on a season long basis, would be in the Tim Rattay
range, #21 overall. Improvement?�
Sure but not really significant improvement.�
Shades
of the Steelers of the late 90�s, these Ravens are a run strong, throw short
aggregate.� This is measured by the YPA
stat where Boller is #31 of 33 qualified QB: the Ravens are #31 as a team.� As was true for those
last-of-the-last-Millennium Steelers, opponents defend these Ravens by stuffing
the box, daring �em to go over the top.�
In
fairness to Boller, it�s not all on him. �Boller can make all the throws but it�s questionable whether the
Ravens have the receivers.� Travis
Taylor has been a disappointment; Kevin Johnson has all but disappeared;
Clarence Moore leads the team with 4TD receiving but while a quality prospect,
he�s a R6 rookie.�
There�s
your Raven WR set.� Todd Heap is, as he
has been, the Ravens� #1 receiver; however, Heap is just rounding into form,
having missed most of the season with an ankle injury.� It�s a measure of Heap�s primacy that,
though he�s appeared in just 5 games this season, he is #2 on the team with 3
TD and his (23) receptions puts him just (11) off Taylor�s lead.�
Heap
is the guy and, more than likely, the Ravens will feature a quantity of 3-TE
sets, the others being: blocker Terry Jones and H-back type Dave Wilcox.� Maybe, they add one WR; maybe just flex Heap
and mash with FB Alan Ricard.� Facing a
Steeler team with just (10) Front 7 players active, that�s a way to go.� But so far as the pass game is concerned:
- Covering monsters with
midgets:� Such was Matt Millen�s evaluation last
spring, on reviewing the draft crop of 5�-10� CB and 6�-4� WR.�� With Scott out, and Ike in the pound,
the Steelers are small in the secondary.�
The Raven receivers are big:�
Heap is 6�-5�, Randy Hymes 6�-3� and Clarence Moore 6�-6�.� Such success as Boller has enjoyed
involves chucking it high, letting his receivers go get the ball.� One aspect to watch is Willie Williams,
v. whichever Raven wideout.�� In
his first tour with the PS, Williams had good speed.� However, that was long ago; at this
point, Willie defends over the top first last and only, on the snap
aligning with WR like the second guy in a sprint relay.� IMO, he�s vulnerable to any stop route
and, if that�s established, then will be vulnerable deep off stop and go.� As noted, the Ravens haven�t gone deep
much.� However, they do have an
opportunity here.�
One
more:
- Attrition:� As noted, the PS figure to have just 10
Front 7 players active Sunday.�
This suggests vulnerability to a TOP type grinding game.� However, those Ravens across the line
aren�t healthy either.� J. Lewis
has an ankle problem and, worse for the Poes, so does Jon Ogden.� As the Ravens built two championship
caliber defenses around 1996 R1 MLB Ray Lewis, so have they built their O
around 1996 R1 LT Jon Ogden.� Nice
draft, but here�s the thing: time flies in the NFL and, at this point,
Ogden is not the player he was.�
Like no time previous, Big Jon has been vulnerable to speed rushers
this season.� Last week, Dwight
Freeney had a couple sacks and innumerable pressures.� The Bills� Aaron Schobel got two too,
weeks ago; Jevon Kearse�
The Steelers have no single rusher at that level but
they do have Coach LeBeau and, as the Pats showed when Colvin, Seymour and both
Pat ILB got over on Boller, the Raven O-line can be had.� That�s true inside too as when the Ravens
came into KC and twin NT Lionel Dalton and Ryan Sims led the upstart Chiefs
towards 4-sack Nirvana.� If the PS can�t
get it off the edge, they�ve still got an advantage with their starting DE.�
Summary:
On
form, this figures to be a slugfest, on the lines of the pass-poor Raven and
Steeler encounters of the late 90�s.� In
those games, any big pass play, or ST return, stood out like diamonds on a dung
heap.� ST-wise, injuries at LB did affect
the Steelers� coverage last week; that hasn�t changed.� Then too, the Ravens don�t go deep much but
the same issues at LB may reduce the PS pass rush, so giving the P-Birds an
opportunity Sunday.� The Ravens have an
edge with their secondary personnel and, presuming Burress will skip this one,
the Steelers� receiver edge is attenuated.�
All those aspects favor Baltimore.�
Against
that, intangibles: for the Ravens, desperation; for the Steelers, that
confidence engendered from 12 one game winning streaks.� Desperation breeds error, confidence
competence.��� If the Steelers win
Sunday, they will have taken care of all business, so far as the regular season
is concerned.� The Ravens, win or loss,
will remain a team on the brink, their twin cornerstones crumbling.
�