Draft 2004, O-line

April 04, 2004 by Steel Phantom

Draft 2004, Defensive Backs

Draft 2004, Offensive Line

If the Steeler secondary was root of much evil for the past two seasons, the O-line was co-responsible for the debacle that was the 2003 campaign.� As noted last time, the FO already has taken some measures to address the secondary: selecting upside speed players Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor in the 2003 draft and, more recently, achieving addition by subtracting both Dewayne Washington and Brent Alexander.� In contrast, they�ve done little with respect to the O-line; that includes nothing this past off-season and, with respect to OT, too little the year before.� Then too, the collapse inside last season furnishes the best possible argument for that draft methodology commonly known as BPA, best player available.� Entering 2003, the PS properly had identified their need in the secondary; maybe they gave too much for Polamalu (though time will tell) but then they may have gotten a bargain with Ike.� No one had eyes for the O-line though, as it was commonly assumed that the inner trio of Faneca, Hartings and Simmons constituted (with the WR) the strength of that team.� Well, so it goes; now, O-line is as big an issue as any.�

It�s worth noting that, despite Kevin Colbert�s protestations that the OT position was vacant in the last draft class, Wade Smith, now a starting LT in Miami, was taken in R3, about 20 spots after Zo.� OG Vince Manuwai and Montrae Holland were taken in the 3^rd too and seem to be developing.� Regardless, the Steelers� O-line situation now may be summarized as:

OT:� The Steelers entered 2003 with one starting caliber OT, Marvel Smith, two veteran suspects, Ross and Fordham, and one guy, Nkwenti, who was essentially a rookie.� That situation is not changed but the downstream profile has.� At this point, there is no reason to believe that the PS will be retaining either Ross or Nkwenti past 2004; at this point, there is no reason to believe either is starting quality.� Quite simply, the PS needs a starter, and they need a quality developmental prospect too.

Interior O-line:� Faneca is a cornerstone but there are questions surrounding the other returnees.� Hartings is a short-timer; Simmons is no sure thing; Okobi was extended but there is a reason he was offered scrub cash for the first two seasons and Vincent may not fit the system.� Excluding Vincent, all these players are signed well past 2004 but for Hartings, that�s pro forma.� For the others, well, we�ve been over all that.� In sum, interior O-line is a high priority need on this side; arguably, it�s #2 behind OT.�

Versatility:� In the best case, interior O-linemen ought to be able to play a couple positions.� Faneca was an adequate OT and Hartings was once a quality OG.� However, both Simmons and Vincent appear to be one-position players; the same may be said of Okobi but IMO, he�s an OC only.� Now, in cap world more than ever, the PS needs that OG/OT; they could use an OG/OC too.

Ranging the field:

By the numbers, OT selected from 1998-2003:

OT	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	Average/Avatar(s)
On the board at 1.11	2^nd	1^st	2^nd	2^nd	4^th	2^nd	Second (2.17) Tra Thomas
1^st round total	3	4	3	3	4	3	Three
On the board @ 44^th selection	6^th	7^th	5^th	5^th	6^th	5^th	Sixth� (5.67) Chad Clifton Matt Lyght
Total thru 2^nd	6	7	6	5	7	4	Six Evidently, few picks from 44 to 64.
On the board @ 75^th selection	8^th	8^th	7^th	6^th	8^th	6^th	Seventh (7.17) Kareem McKenzie Jonas Jennings Wade Smith
Total thru 3^rd	9	8	8	7	8	9	Eight
On the board @ 106^th selection	10^th	9^th	10^th	9^th	9^th	10^th	Ninth, tenth (9.50) Jason Fabini Ryan Diem
Total drafted	15	17	16	20	17	20	Eighteen Ephraim Salaam 7.199 Mark Tauscher, 7.224

A couple things worth noting:

OT go out early; on average, we�re seeing the 6^th OT at 44, the 7^th at 75.� Since it would be surprising if there were any enormous difference between the 6^th and 7^th guys, this suggests teams reach for OT early (late 1^st, early 2^nd).� In a weak class, as is available this year, we can expect teams to reach for the 3^rd to 5^th guys.� By guru consensus, those are Kelly Butler, Vernon Carey and Jake Rogers.�

As noted, this is regarded as a weak OT class.� That was true last season and in 2001 as well.� Too soon to say on how the 2003 class developed but it�s worth noting that the 2001 group was better in the middle (McKenzie, Jennings and Diem) than at the top (Leonard Davis, 1.02, who became an OG, and Kenyatta Walker, 1.14).� Jeff Backus, 1.18, is excluded from that slur.�

A number of the 4^th round guys that have succeeded, Diem, Fabini and Jon Runyan for three, could be characterized as big, stiff, strong, slow and smart.� That describes Nate Dorsey, Max Starks and, my pick of that set, Brian Rimpf.� In contrast, the 4^th round athletes have flopped, Mathis Nkwenti being one familiar example.�

Off that, the value at RT is R3 or R4.� However, looking all around the league:

Current projected starting RT, per Ourlads:

Drafted	Quality player	Average, more or less	Too soon to say
1^st Seven	Kyle Turley Willie Anderson John Tait Stockar McDougle	Mike Williams Victor Riley	George Foster
2^nd Nine	Jon Jansen Todd Wade Chris Terry Adam Meadows	Anthony Clement Todd Weiner Marques Williams Scott Gragg	Langston Walker
3^rd Three	Kareem McKenzie	John St. Clair	Courtney Van Buren
4^th Five	Jon Runyan Ryan Diem Jason Fabini	Fred Miller Ryan Tucker
5^th Two		Mike Rosenthal Oliver Ross
6^th�7^th One	Mark Tauscher
UDFA Five	Chris Bober (�00) Orlando Brown (�93)	Barry Stokes (�96) Tom Ashworth (�01)	Kurt Vollers (�00)

You might dispute the breakout, moving players column to column but there�s no denying this:

Of those putative starters at RT, (16) were drafted in the first 2 rounds; (16) came in rounds 3-7, or as UDFA.��

Using the numbers from 1998-2003 tabulated above, 35 OT were drafted in the first two rounds; 105 were drafted in total, so 70 from round 3 thru 7.� Obviously, many of those starters weren�t picked in the period but, just as a guesstimate, we might collapse both stats, allowing for recent draftees to replace grizzled vets.� Then, broadly, we might accept a 1:2 pick ratio against a 1:1 ratio for starters (including FA).� Well, more exactly, we might be looking at 16/35 vs. 11/70 or 46% vs. 16%.� Generally then, it�s 3:1 against for 2^nd day picks vs. 1^st as now (or future) starters.��

As a type, those 2^nd day and later RT generally can be described as brawlers; most are powerful players but they cannot be described as athletes.�

The next table joins OG and OC; that follows the idea that interior players should be two-position types.� Also, OC aren�t often drafted; more often, they are OG conversions and usually vets.�

By the numbers, OG and OC drafted over the years:��

OT	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	Average/Avatar(s)
On the board at 1.11	1^st	1^st�	1^st	1^st	1^st	1^st	First No interior O-lineman was drafted in the top ten.
1^st round total	2	2	0	1	1	1	One (1.17) Highest were Steve Hutchinson and Damian Woody at 1.17
On the board @ 44^th selection	3^rd	3^rd	2^nd	2^nd	4^th�	4^th	Third (3.00) LaCharles Bentley 2.44
Total thru 2^nd	5	4	5	2	4	4	Four
On the board @ 75^th selection	7^th	9^th	6^th	3^rd	6^th	6^th	Sixth (6.17) Zach Pillar
Total thru 3^rd	7	11	6	4	7	6	Seven
On the board @ 107^th selection	10^th	13^th	8^th	7^th	9^th	8^th	Ninth (9.17) Benji Olsen
Total drafted	32	24	20	20	21	25	Twenty four Many 5^th to 7^th round picks start inside including Matt Birk, two members of the SB champion Pats and two from the highflying Colts.

One thing worth noting:

The 3^rd round figures vary wildly with as few as (1) player taken in that frame, and as many as 7.� Two to three is usually it but IMO this class will be on the downside overall, with 5-7 through 3 rounds.� Most likely, that will affect the number on at 107.

Current projected starting RG and OC, per Ourlads:

Drafted

Quality player

Average, more or less

Too soon to say

1^st

Seven

Jeff Hartings, C

Jeff Faine, C

Pete Kendall, C

Jermane Mayberry

Rueben Brown, formerly

Kendall Simmons

Chris Nareole

2^nd

Thirteen

Kevin Mawae, C

Jeremy Newberry, C

LaCharles Bentley

Brad Meester, C

Randy Thomas

Barrett Robbins, C

Rich Braham, C

Zach Wiegart

Cory Raymer

Dom Raiola, C

Matt O�Dwyer

Andre Gurode

Ben Nelson

3^rd

Eleven

Will Shields

Olin Kreutz, C

Mike Flanagan, C

Seth McKinney, C

Dan Neil

Brent Smith

Bobbie Williams

Mike Goff

David Loverne

Taylor Whitley

Montrae Holland

4^th

Two

Steve McKinney, C

Dave Wohlbaugh, C

5^th

Nine

Chris Villarrial

Benji Olsen

Jeff Mitchell, C

John Wade, C

Cameron Spikes

Chris Gray

Dan Koppen, C

Matt Lehr

David Diehl

6^th�7^th

Eight

Trey Teague, C

Marco Rivera

Matt Birk, C

Paul Zakaukas

Justin Hartwig, C

Todd McClure

Alan Timmerman

Kyle Kosier

UDFA

Thirteen

Tom Nalen, C

Casey Wiegmann, C

Ron Stone, once upon a time

Mike Flynn, C

Jeff Saturday, C

Kynan Forney

Joe Andruzzi

Bennie Anderson

Shawn O�Hara, C

Hank Fraley, C

Dan Dixon

Robbie Tobeck, C

Jason Ball, C

A couple things worth noting:

Of (7) 1^st round picks at the two positions (7 of 63 shown), the Steelers field two.� From a cap point of view, that�s absurd, as has been noted here since January 2003, with our first O-Side Overview.

Using the same (junk) collapsing technique here as for OT (above), for starters at the position, the first day/second day + UFDA split is 50/50, give or take a couple; for RT, that same 50/50 split was through R2.� Through R2 inside, the starter split is about 2/1 (43/20 as shown).

Survey Summary:

There is no value to drafting at RG or OC in R1.� There is quality at the top of R1 (with Turley and Anderson); the late 1^st picks are comparable to those in the 2^nd.

There are a number of players at these three positions who began as R2 picks; of those, the best value has been at OC.� However, there is quality at that position in R6 through UDFA too.

OG predominates in R3 but the quality edge is at OC.� Slim pickings at OT.

Quality in R4 and R5 resides with the brawlers, whether OG like Benji Olsen or those RT mentioned previously.� Few �athletic projects� have developed at any of these spots.

There are numbers at all three spots in R6-UDFA but the quality is inside.

Overall, the chance of getting a RT starter in the mid-rounds is somewhat better than for the aggregate of those inside spots.� From R6-UDFA, the edge is inside.

Back in January, in the Big Board, version 1.0, I�d offered that the Steelers were ill positioned in the draft to gather real value at OT.� Given that, OT might have been a high priority FA target but, as we�ve seen, that did not eventuate.� Little has changed since then; the PS can move down in R1 or up in R2, but they cannot draft OT value at either spot.� Alternatively, they can wait until day two, where there figures to be a bonanza of short area maulers.� Projections through pick 107 are outlined below:

Both positions, transposed to the class of 2004:

	OT	Interior O-line	Remarks	BPA	Value cluster
Could be on the board at 1.11	Reach at this spot at this position.	Does not apply	Gallery will be long gone; there is no value for the 2^nd OT at 1.11	(Sean Taylor), FS Will Smith, LOLB Phil Rivers, QB DeAngelo Hall, CB Harris/Udeze, DE	WR, DE.
In the gap	Shawn Andrews Kelly Butler Vernon Carey	Justin Smiley	Butler would be good trade up target from 44.	WR	RT
5^th to 7^th OT 44^th overall 2^nd to 4^th IOL	(Jake Rogers) Reach at this spot at this position. Nate Dorsey Travelle Wharton	Jake Grove Chris Snee Sean Locklear	There is no value for the 6^th OT at 2.44.� Jake Rogers is not going to be BPA at 2.44, even if he�s here, which is not likely. The value appears to be inside.	(Ben Watson, TE) Sean Jones, FS (Kelly Butler, OT) Chris Snee, OG/OC	OG/OC FS
Of use to the Steelers but in the gap	Nate Dorsey is a contender for the Tony Pashos award: fall from 2^nd to 5^th.	Wharton?	Locklear could be trade up from R3 value.	Jason Babin, LOLB Matt Ware, FS
6^th to 8^th OT 75^th overall 6^th to 9^th IOL	Dorsey Wharton Pick #8 from R4 below. I�ll guess Stacy Andrews.	Steve Peterman Jeb Terry	If Dorsey is drafted per his earlier standing, Jake Rogers could be here as #6, but probably not. Wharton would not be BPA IMO.	Derrick Hamilton, WR 9^th to 11^th CB (Jacob Rogers)	DT, CB, WR
Of use to the Steelers but in the gap			There�s little difference between OT #8 and #13, let alone 8^th to 10^th.	Tim Anderson, DT	LOLB prospects
9^th to 10thOT 106^th overall 7^th to 13^th IOL	Pick 2-3 of: William Joseph Brian Rimpf Mark Pera Sean Bubin Max Starks Tony Pape? 3-4 will be will be available in R5.	Jacob Bell Alex Stephanovich Nick Leakey	The smart guys are Dorsey, Rimpf and Starks, of those, Rimpf. There are so many big OG/OT that the PS might have equivalent prospects in R5-6.	Kris Wilson, TE Marcell Almond, CB	DT, deep 2^nd tier. OG/OT types.

Remarks:

If we begin with the question: which draftee will for damn sure play better than Oliver Ross next season, we�ll get this short list.

Robert Gallery:� Better than Jordan Gross but no Boselli or Ogden.� IMO will develop in the Walter Jones area, maybe better.� Irrelevant though since he will not be on the board.

Shawn Andrews:� #2 by consensus, although #4 OT on my personal board.� Andrews has been fat, undisciplined and (reportedly) depressed.� Maybe, he�s transformed; I hope that�s so, for his sake and for the team that drafts him.� However, taking a dim view of the possibilities for genuine personal change, Andrews would be DND at 1.11.

Kelly Butler|: One of few big OT with any movement skills; Butler has been #3 on my board for quite a while.� If that holds, he will not be available to the when the Steelers draft in R2.�

Vernon Carey:�� #2 on my board; IMO, Carey is as good a prospect as say Jeff Backus or Steve Hutchinson, two players taken in the top 20.� This prospect is down list on many fan sites but IMO will not get by the Fins, or Boys, in R1.

Jacob Rogers:� Good technician but not real strong and has been nicked too. DND until R3, IMO.

That�s it; that�s the list.� If we set the over/under on OT available at the Steelers� R2 slot as 5^th; I�d bet the over.� Aside from the Fins and Boys down in R1, the Titans need an O-lineman, and have two picks between the Steelers� top two; teams needing the same at the top of R2 include, but may not limited to: San Diego, NYG and Cleveland.� Given that, those five OT will likely be off and PS may be looking at two of the top four interior O-linemen, the top contenders being:

Justin Smiley:� Mobile but not too big and strong.� Rated #1 by most, if that holds, he won�t get past NE in R1.

Jake Grove:� Top OC in the draft; probably can play OG too.� If he�s the 2^nd guy, he�ll be gone too.� That�s fine since:

Chris Snee:� Would be my choice in this category.� He�s the biggest, strongest of the group and Boston College has sent many a fine O-lineman pro-ward.� Snee drilled at OC this winter and therefore figures as a two-position player.�� He�d be value at the spot but I�d prefer a space player; IMO, off that, one mid-round analogue to Snee may be Alex Stephanovich of OSU.�

Sean Locklear:� Played in front of Phillip Rivers at NCS.� Good athlete who was a defender for a couple seasons; has some upside but seems to me a reach at 44.

FWIW, Snee would top my board; however, if you consider the average, 5.67 OT and 3.0 IOL at 44, it may well be Locklear, or Rogers, and no one else.� After that, well, Travelle Wharton has some of the aspects of a Locklear.� Both do have some movement skills; Wharton is listed as an OT, but LG may be his best position.� While a number of mocks have Wharton as the Steelers R3, he�s just as likely to be the #5 IOL off the board (a top of the 3^rd slot).� ��As noted, Locklear should be the #4 IOL; he is listed inside but (unlike the top 3) does have the frame to move outboard.� Beyond that pair, big, slow players predominate; none are 3R values IMO.� In fact, the rest of the OT class may be categorized as either:

Stiff strong guys variously listed as OG or OT:

	H/W/40	School	Notes
Brian Rimpf	6-6, 319, 5.42	East Carolina	35 Wonderlic, 34 reps, aggressive disposition.� R4 value, IMO.
William Joseph	6-6, 345, 5.35	Miami	7 Wonderlic, chronic underachiever, DND.
Sean Bubin	6-6, 305, 5.30	Illinois	Bad Senior Bowl reviews.�
Max Starks	6-7, 350, 5.59	Florida	35 Wonderlic, strong enough, professional, R5 value, IMO.
Jacob Bell	6-5, 305, 5.30	Miami of Ohio	Sophisticated attack at Miami North
Tony Pape	6-6, 323, 5.30	Michigan	Good technician but not quick, aggressive disposition, good teammate, R5 value, IMO.
Kirk Chambers	6-7, 315, 5.50	Stanford	Overage
Tyson Clabo	6-7, 315, 5.45	Wake Forest	Has bloodline
Alan Reuber	6-6, 323, 5.45	Texas A&M

Somewhere in that, the next Ryan Diem.� Dorsey, Starks and Rimpf are the smart guys; each scored 35 on their Wonderlic; each is strong enough too. �Dorsey is the highest rated just now but IMO is most likely to drop; Rimpf is the lowest rated but IMO is most likely to develop.� Bell and Pape seem to be similar prospects.� In fact, there are so many prospects of this type, that equivalent value could be found through R6.� Others of the type include Rob Droege, Jason Lenzmeier and Kurt Lekkerkerker.�

Or athletes:

	H/W/40	School	Notes
Stacy Andrews	6-5, 342, 5.05	Mississippi	Outstanding athlete, best in class but has played OT for just one season.�
Adrian Jones	6-4, 295, 4.95	K-State	Began as a TE, LT prospect.
Marko Cavko	6-7, 295, 5.17	Sacramento State	LT prospect, deep R6 value for this team.
Anthony Herrera	6-4, 315, 5.20	Tennessee	Listed as an OG.

I wouldn�t touch the athletes; in general, right side players need to be big, strong and smart; that describes your average Zeus Brown but if you add in accountability, Zeus drops out.� In short, the PS needs a couple of conscientious bodyguard types; they do not need developmental, high upside athletic types.

There are a quantity of second day interior players beginning with Nick Leckey and Alex Stephanovich and passing through Scott Wells and Nick Hardwick to conclude with any number of anonymous prospects.� IMO the deciding factor should be the capacity to develop as a multi-position player. ��FWIW, I�d take a hard look at Hardwick, OC and wrestling champ at Purdue.

Conclusion:

OT:� Nate Dorsey is the key; if Dorsey is drafted per his initial projections, then the Steelers may get a quality OT prospect in R2, or even R3; if not, not.� Of those, Kelly Butler would be my guy; he�s the only big frame OT this side of Stacy Andrews, with good movement skills. However, as it�s my view that Dorsey is dropping, the PS is unlikely to be in position to draft a top 5 OT, or Oliver Ross� 2004 replacement.� �There is a quantity of developmental players, as tabulated above; however, most of those seem outside the Steelers� preferred mode, which may be described as favoring smaller O-linemen capable of blocking on the second level.� �Personally, presuming Butler can�t be had, I�d draft a couple of the strong smart guys; except as the FO identifies one particular prospect, there �may be equivalent value through R6.

IOL:� There may be quality at R2; of those, Chris Snee would top my list.� Afterwards, maybe Alex Stephanovich; or those prospects available in R6.� �

Above all else, the FO needs to determine what kind of O-line they want to develop; an intricate move-block unit in the KC mode or a living wall of meat, patterned after the Vikings.� They�ve committed to neither to date; it�s worth noting that the numbers seem to favor the Vikes mode.

Acknowledgements:

Thanks to mejeris who took the time to provide the message forum with a report on Vols and to Steel Hammer, who contributed his annual Buckeye sketch.� Others are welcome to contribute similar eyewitness accounts.�

Next Time:

Something easy: TE, RB and FB, maybe.

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Draft 2004, O-line

April 04, 2004 by Steel Phantom

Draft 2004, Offensive Line

Second (2.17)

Sixth� (5.67)

Six

Seventh (7.17)

Ninth, tenth (9.50)

Eighteen

Seven

Nine

Three

Five

Two

One

Five

Twenty four

Drafted

Seven

Thirteen

Eleven

Two

Nine

Eight

Thirteen

Does not apply

Kelly Butler

Vernon Carey

RT

Chris Snee

(Ben Watson, TE)

OG/OC

FS

Pick 2-3 of:

William Joseph

Brian Rimpf

Max Starks

Tony Pape?

Jacob Bell

Jacob Bell