Stillers vs. Browns Pregame Analysis (AFC
1st Round Playoff)
The Stillers begin the
playoffs by facing their longtime nemesis, the Cleve Browns.� These teams fought tooth and nail in both contests
in '02, with the Stillers pulling out a 3-point OT win in meeting #1 and a 3-point
win in meeting #2.� Familiarity breeds contempt, and these teams
are familiar enough with one another that contemptuous feelings should be at a
feverish pitch come kickoff time on Sunday.�
Both teams took somewhat similar roads to the playoffs, in that they started
the season slowly and then picked up steam down the homestretch.� This is the first foray into the playoffs
for the "new" Browns that were reborn in '99, while this is the 2nd
consecutive playoff berth for the Stillers.�
* When the
Browns have the ball,
they�ll bring a remarkably improved offense to the table than what the Stillers
faced in either previous meeting in '02.�
The biggest boost has been from rookie RB William Green, who has really
picked up his game after a woeful first half.�
I'd noted in my prior pre-Clev reports how disappointed I was in
watching Green, because he looked incredibly wooden and stiff.� Having watched Green the past couple of
weeks, I can't help but wonder if the Browns trainer staff soaked Green in a
vat of WD-40 derivative, or just some gold old fashioned motor oil, but
whatever happened, it has helped immensely.�
Green looks 3 times more fluid, smooth, and crisp than he did in
September-November.� Depending on your
point of view, the injury to starting QB Tim Couch either helps or hinders the
Brown offense.� On the negative side for
Clev, Couch was the leader who had taken the vast majority of the snaps, and
has the best rapport and knowledge of the offense.� On the other hand, throughout the year Couch has struggled like a
1-legged man in an ass-kicking contest, so it's not quite as bad as losing,
say, Brett Favre or Rich Gannon.�
Starting for Couch will be relative greenhorn Kelly Holcombe, who gave
the Browns some pretty solid play in relief of Couch during the '02 season.� Obviously, QB is the most critical position
in football, and Holcombe's ability to deal with playoff and the Steeler defensive
pressure will be instrumental in his team's chances of winning this
ballgame.�
Clev Running game vs.
Pit defense:� Green spearheads the ground game,
but he's got a nice backup in Jamel White.�
Whitey is very quick and has deceptive footspeed, and he's dangerous
outside as well as in the passing game, where he snared 63 passes.� The Browns employ an "H back" as
their FB, by way of Steve Heiden, who's not a particularly bruising
blocker.� Former Stiller RJ Bowers backs
up Heiden.� Green is a talented young
back who has been running much better, but he's not quite the slashing kind of
runner that can inflict much damage on this Stiller defense.� I expect Green to garner for a few yards
here and there, but without a good O-line and with his style of running, I
don't expect a big day out of Mr. Greenjeans.�
Clev OL vs. Pit Front 7:
Regardless of what
happens to the Browns between now and April, the Browns' mock draft of their
1st 5 picks should look like this:�
O-lineman, O-lineman, O-lineman, O-lineman, and O-lineman.� I'm not sure I've ever seen a team go though
4 years worth of drafts and ignore the offensive line as much as the Clev
Browns have.� They've perennially
eschewed any investment whatsoever into their O-line during even
mid-round draft picks, and the result is a patchwork O-line that lacks brawn,
power, ability, and effectiveness.� Casey
Hampton should have an easy time chewing up the Clev interior, and DEs Smith
and Kimo should have some easy pickin's from time to time.� Porter will have somewhat of a challenge in
LT Ross Verba.� The Brows will, most assuredly,
take several stabs at exploiting the softee run stuffing of OLB Jason Gildon,
by kicking GilDong out wide and running the back off-tackle.� The Stillers will most likely be without ILB
Kendrell Bell, which really hurts their versatility and brutality.� James Farrior is returning from injury, so
Farrior and Mike Jones/Larry Foote (Foote will start) will have to step up and
stuff Green.� Even without Bell, this
should be a dominant mismatch in favor of the Stillers.�
Clev WR vs. Pit
secondary: On the
other hand, Clev has invested their 2nd round pick from the past 4 drafts into
their WR Corps: KJ, Northcutt, Morgan, and Davis.� This is a supremely talented corps of receivers -- far better
than any the Stillers have faced since, well, the last time the Stillers
played the Browns.� KJ receives a fair
bit of bashing, and although he�s not a deep threat, the guy is reliable and
makes the clutch plays, despite not having a top-notch QB to throw him the
ball.� Besides, the Stillers won�t
likely make much of an adjustment on KJ�s lack of deep speed, and will give him
the 12-yard cushion anyway.� Prior to
this season, Northcutt and Morgan both were on the verge of sharing "2nd
round bust" status with the likes of Will Blackwell, but they both snapped
out of their funks this season with very solid production.� Morgan led the team in yards, YPC (an
impressive 17.2), and TDs, while Northcutt had a fine season with nearly a 16
YPC average.� Rookie Andre Davis
possesses a splendid combination of speed and playmaking, and he chipped in
quite nicely with 37 grabs and 6 TDs.�
TE Mark Campbell isn�t a major threat at all, but he can't be totally
ignored, as he had 25 grabs and 3 TDs.�
Chad Scott was supposed to return to the starting lineup with a soft
cast on his wrist, but despite the earlier-in-the-week reassurance from Coach
Cowher, I had grave concerns about whether Chad is up to the task.� With Chad barely getting any meaningful work
this week, it is rather apparent that Chad will sit this one out and be
replaced with DeShea Twonsend.� This isn�t
too bad, because the drop-off in coverage from Scott to Townsend isn�t all that
large.� But the more acute problem is in
the nickel defense and dime defense.� Instead
of Townsend -- arguably the team�s best cover-man -- doing the �3rd CB� chores,
seldom used Hank Poteat will be thrust into that role, and the dropoff is
rather large.� Against an offense with
only 2 capable receivers, this wouldn�t be such a big deal, but the Browns
possess 4 (four) threats at WR.� The
secondary has taken its share of beatings during the season, and only the
late-season fortuitousness of facing such pitifully inept offense like Houston
and Carolina erased the wretched scorchings from many a fan's memory bank.� Regardless of Scott�s health, Townsend will
get a load of work, and will need to respond with a stellar effort.� Washington also needs to have a strong
game.� Although it might be asking for a
bit much, it would be nice if the safeties can defend a pass now and then
during this game.�
The key matchup will be the Cleveland offensive
scheme against the Stiller defense.�
Butch Davis has faced the Stillers twice this year, plus the 2 meetings
last season.� Few coaches should know
the Stillers as well as Davis.� The huge decision by Davis comes down to this:� armed with the recent success of William
Green, will Davis go vanilla and try to pound the ball on the ground with a
basic 2 WR, 1 FB, 1 TE set, or will he use his senses and go with a majority of
4 WRs and a single RB ?�� As Tim Lewis
already announced to the NFL a few weeks ago, playing vanilla, mano-o-mano
football against this Stiller defense is brave stupidity at its worst.� If Davis lines up an offense with 2 WRs, a
FB/H-back, and a TE, his offense will get eaten alive.� The Clev. O-line is far too weak to play
smashmouth football against one of the better front-7's in all of
football.� However, as Oakland, New
England, and even the Ravens last week showed, if you spread out the Stillers,
you get enormous opportunities at riches and wealth.� You get mismatches that are so lopsided -- such as Lee Flowers on
Todd Heap or Jason GilDong on David Patten -- that the laughter is almost
deafening.� By spreading the field, you
get the good athletes -- especially Joey Porter -- out of the box.� Davis can still attempt to pound the ball
with Green and White, but he can do it out of a 3, and (for his sake)
preferably a 4 WR offense.� The
FB/H-back of the Browns is a joke in terms of run-blocking, and as such, need
not be used to do nothing more than create a bottleneck for the RB.� The Browns would be far better served
spreading the field with 3 or 4 WRs, with Green or White as the lone back.� This will also enable Holcomb to use a lot
of the quick 3 & 5 step drops -- and the associated quick slants, drags,
crossers, and outs -- that not only minimize the blocking requirements for that
patchwork O-line, but give the Stiller pass defense fits.� Some opponents have not done this to the
Stillers, because they lacked the stable of WRs to pull this off. Cleveland,
with the superb corps of 4 WRs, has no such dearth, and as such, should take
advantage of Pittsburgh's most glaring weakness (its pass defense).� The naysayers will claim that Cleveland
can't live on the pass alone.� However,
as I've noted, they can attempt to run out of this passing formation -- with no
worse results than a vanilla formation and a good likelihood of better results
-- and the Browns can get numerous opportunities for the shorty passing game
that their QBs love anyway.� Cleveland
obviously doesn�t need to exclusively go to 3 & 4 wide sets, but they need
a steady diet of them if they want any chance of moving the ball and using some
clock.� Davis' decision will either make
or break the Brownies.�
*
When the Stillers have the ball, they'll bring one of the more versatile offenses in the
NFL.� The Stillers have the ability to
pound the ball on the ground, or go airborne with one of the best receiving
tandems in the league.�� QB Tommy Maddox
will lead the Stiller offense.�
Strangely enough, this is Maddox's first venture in the playoffs, and
it's rarely a smooth ride for a QB in his first playoff game.�
Stiller running game vs.
Clev. defense: The
Stillers are supposedly going to use a 3-man committee of Bettis, Fu, and
Amoz.� Frankly, I find that hard to
believe, because if the Tubby Tailback, Jerome Bettis, is at least healthy
enough to convince Cowher to play him, then Bettis will inherently get most of
the work .� Aside from obvious passing
downs, Fu and Amoz will thus fight for whatever scarce scraps are left
over.� Bettis missed last week's game,
and has been hobbled all season with one malady after another.� Nevertheless, Bettis -- desperate for any
kind of playoff success in order to help his chances of entering the Hall of
Fame -- will spin any yarn imaginable in order to con his way into the starting
lineup.� From there, he's guaranteed at
least a half of football, if not more.�
We have no idea how good Bettis will look; after all, going into last
season's playoffs, he was supposedly as nimble as Jim Thorpe, yet looked as
slow as pond water when he played in the Patriots disaster.� Bettis has practiced this week, so perhaps
he�s at least moderately healthy.� We�ll
see.� Bettis hasn�t fared particularly
well against the Browns, either.� He
gained a meager 24 yards on 14 rushes in the 1st meeting, and didn't play in
the 2nd.� Amoz looked good last week vs.
Balt., and fared quite well in meeting #2, rushing for 111 yards and snaring 56
yards in the passing game.� The
ever-so-brittle Fu adds a good combo of power and quickness, but his brittle
health, coupled with the Cowher penchant of handing most of the rushing chores
over to FatBoy Bettis, makes Fu a probable spare part.�� FB Dan Kreider keys the running attack with
devastating lead blocks, and he�ll need to get his hat on Holmes and Hambrick for
the ground game to click.�
Pit OL vs. Clev Front 7:
The Stiller O-line
is as experienced and talented as any in the league.� In fact, they might very well be the league's best.� Aside from Wayne Gandy's calf problem, the
line is relatively healthy going into the playoffs.� Center Jeff Hartings' knee appears to be fine.� The Browns, however, have a fairly stout
front 7 that is worthy of respect and admiration.� Even without their two best defenders -- Courtney Brown and Jamir
Miller -- the Browns have cobbled together a solid front 7 that plays with a
lot of toughness and gusto.� Tackles
Gerard Warren and O. Roye give the Browns a good foundation in the middle.� In fact, Roye ate the Stillers alive in the
last meeting, whipping blockers continually and wreaking far too much havoc.� Warren was a 1st rounder last year, and can
be a load to handle when he brings ferocity and technique to the table.� DE K. Lang is no slouch.� The Clev. front 4 will try to disrupt and
slash whenever possible, as that has shown to be the best way to slow down the
Stiller ground game, as opposed to merely "reading and
reacting".� At LB, the Browns lost
Miller to a season-ending injury, but replaced him with Darren Hambrick, who
has impressed me as much -- if not more -- than any other
"unheralded" player in the NFL this season.� Hambrick hits and tackles extremely well, and has a very good
nose for the ball.� Of course, that
describes ILB and former Stiller Earl Holmes rather accurately as well.� Holmes led the Browns in tackles in '02 and
spearheaded the goal-line stand that preserved last week's win over Atlanta.� Just as importantly, Holmes brings his loud brand
of bravado and mayhem to what had been a rather meek and tame Brown defense
prior to his arrival.� Helmet-tosser
Dwayne Rudd is the weakest link in the LB corps.� All in all, this is a huge battle that will have a tremendous
impact on how well the Stillers can move the football, and be assured, this
will be no easy task for the Stillers O-line.�
Pit WR vs. Clev
secondary: Ward and
Burress comprise what might be the best WR tandem in the league.� CB Corey Fuller is a savvy veteran, but he
and McCutheon aren't capable of covering these two WRs in solo coverage all day
long.� Added to the offensive mix is
Randle El, along with capable but seldom-used T. Mathis.� The Stillers get very little use from their
TE.� Griffith and Little provide some
pop back at the safety spots, and both are probably better cover men than what
the Stiller employ.� The Browns --
assuming they have any coaching -- will look to play some in-your-face chucking
on Plex or Ward (probably choosing just 1 of them to bump-and run on a given
play), with some deep help shaded to that side.� Because their front 7 is fairly capable, the Browns don't
necessarily need to exclusively commit their SS to the "box".� Instead, they can selectively back off their
SS in order to help defend the pass.� If
Cleveland goes overboard to bottle up Plex and Ward, the Stillers must get good
use out of their #3 & #4 receivers, something that has not happened with
much consistency in �02.�
The key matchup will be the Stiller passing game
against the Cleveland defense.� In a
perfect world, the Stillers would get a comfy 14 point lead and then run
Cowher's Turtle Offense to perfection with plenty of plunges and dives.� However, this game will probably be much
closer, and if the Stiller ground game struggles in mediocrity -- as it did in
both meetings vs. Clev this season -- the Stiller will need a boost from the
passing game.� Maddox will get his first
taste of playoff football, and will face more zeal and rabidity on Sunday than
he's faced in the past 4 games combined.�
Plunging-and-punting, although containing some nice sounding
alliteration and rhyming, is no recipe for success in the playoffs.� Maddox, and his WR crew, must come though
for the Stillers to score enough points to beat the Browns.� And as noted above, the Stillers must get
good use and productivity from the #3 and #4 receivers (El and Mathis),
especially if the Browns go overboard in their attempt to stifle Plex and
Ward.�
*
Special Teams: �As in any playoff game involving a Billy Cowher-coached team, the
opponent has a decided advantage.� The
Browns get good productivity in both their KO return game (with Andre Davis) as
well as their punt return game (with Northcutt, who returned one against the
Stillers.)�� Both of these returners are
incredibly dangerous.� Kicker Phil Dawson
had some problems at Heinz Field, and his beefing and griping could mean that
the field has gotten the better of his mental ability.� Randle El has been ok in the return
department, but has been mostly silenced on the punt returns, where the team
could really use a boost in the battle for field position.� Kicker Jeff Reed has been nearly flawless
and is brimming with confidence.� Newly
acquired punter Tom Rouen has acquitted himself quite well, so much so that the
team should send Josh Miller out of town on the nearest train.� With the combination of playoff football and
Billy Cowher, you can pretty much expect an abortion to occur with the special
teams.� The only questions are when, and
where.�
* Interesting
Matchup:� Earl Holmes vs. the Stiller
ground game:� According to some imbeciles -- most
notably Jim Wexell -- "Earl Holmes can't tackle".� As if Holmes doesn't play the game of
football at a high enough energy level, he will likely be a rabid ball of fire
for this game, in the perfect opportunity to exact revenge on the team that let
him go.� Look for a bone crunching hit
from Holmes early on, in an attempt to dictate the tempo of this game.�
*
Coaching:� Butch Davis did a superb job to keep his
average-talent team focused and energized after a slow start.� This is obviously Davis' first venture into
the NFL playoffs, but he did get a good flavor of "playoff football"
as a collegiate head coach in the do-or-die, winner-takes-all atmosphere of
major bowl games.� No coach in modern
NFL history has done so little with so much in the playoffs, as has Billy
Cowher.� During his past 7 forays into
the playoffs, Cowher has shown a blatant, ostrich-like indifference to proper
preparation, sound strategy, and in-game adjustments.� Trusting one's playoff hopes to the likes of Marty Shittenheimer
Jr. -- aka Billy Cowher -- is like trusting the security & safety of a
lumber mill to a rabid pyromaniac.�
* Synopsis: Home field is where you wanna be in
the playoffs, but the Browns have shown good resiliency on the road this
season, going 6-2.� And 1 of those
losses was in OT, to the Stillers, when a game-winning FG skimmed the outer
paint of the helmet worn by Kimo V.� This
game truly is, by far, the best matchup of the weekend, complete with a heated
rivalry; much hatred; and a hard hitting brand of football.� This game also features an NFL rarity --
both starting QBs will be breaking their playoff virginity in this
contest.� How those QBs fare under the pressure
of their first taste of playoff pressure, will undoubtedly be a key factor in
who wins and who loses. �Cleveland has
played Pittsburgh incredibly tough in both '02 contests, and I expect nothing
less than that on Sunday.� And, with
Billy Cowher's penchant come playoff time for puckering tighter than skin on a
raisin -- "we HOPE to keep it close" is his mantra -- it's all
but certain that this game will come down to nail biting time in the 4th
quarter.� I have grave concerns about
the Stillers' softee pass defense, but this is the Cleveland Browns, and
if any team can find a way to fritter away a playoff game, it's the
playoff-inept Brownies.� The Stillers
will pull off a close win, 23-20.�