Draft 2004, Defensive Backs

 

This is the first of a (short) series towards our final Big Board of Value.� Since the Steeler secondary has been the root of much evil for the past two seasons, we�ll begin there.� To be sure, the FO already has taken some measures to address this: selecting upside speed players Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor in the 2003 draft and, more recently, achieving addition by subtracting both Dewayne Washington and Brent Alexander.� Still, considerable need remains; now, by way of introduction to that:

 

• CB:� It all depends on Ike.� Reportedly Taylor is having a tremendous off-season; if so, the PS may already have their lockdown CB.� Otherwise, while Townsend played good ball in a starting role last season, considering the wave of big WR entering the league, DT is best cast as a 3^rd CB.� That�s not all bad; after all, in the nickel co-base, your 3^rd corner has to be equivalent to your 3^rd LB, or in the Steelers� case, their 3^rd D-lineman.� Townsend may approach that status; still, there�s plenty of room between Ike and DT, either way.� Future-forward, well, Townsend has two years to play; for purposes of discussion, we�ll say Chad Scott has one (or, for rook pool purposes, none).

 

• In general, the Steeler backups are small CB: �Fair, Iwuoma and maybe BJ Tucker or Nashville Dyer.� The PS has the numbers but no proven quality.

 

• FS:� The Steelers have no FS at all.� Polamalu is a SS; Logan was a SS too and, if Hope were a FS then Logan would not have been brought back to start next season at that spot.� While all three are useful players, and Polamalu may become something more, none have real single high capability, or the frame to cover TE.�

 

• In the D-Side Overview published last January, it was purported that, so long as the Steeler Front 7 is constructed in the Blitzburgh mode, the Rush 4, Cover 2 scheme cobbled up for 2003 is a no-go.� That strongly suggests some secondary template with a division by 3 such as man out, single high or Cover 3.� Either would allow those (many) SS to interchange with the LB, especially Porter and Bell, getting pressure on opposing QB that the D-line isn�t likely to produce.� Off that, a frame-worthy, single high FS with sideline-to-sideline speed is as great a need as CB, maybe greater.

 

Still, you get what you can but just as a means to establish some parameters, consider this survey, from NFL. com�s Draft History.�

 

By the numbers, CB and FS selected from 1998-2003:

 

CB	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	Average/Avatar
On the board at 1.11	3rd	3rd	1st	1st	2nd	2nd	Second Marcus Trufant
1st round total	4	4	3	3	4	5	Four
On the board @ 44th selection	7th	7th	4th	5th	5th	8th	Sixth Patrick Surtain
Total thru 2nd	9	7	9	7	7	8	Eight
On the board @ 75th selection	10th	10th	10th	11th	10th	9th	Tenth William Peterson
Total thru 3rd	12	10	12	12	12	11	Eleven, twelve.
On the board @ 106th selection	13th	13th	15th	15th	15th	13th	Fourteenth Brian Williams

 

Looks like four per round, on average.� A couple of things worth noting:

 

• 1998 was the year of the CB, especially in the 2^nd round where Artell Hawkins, Patrick Surtain, Brain Kelly and Samari Rolle were drafted 43, 44, 45, and 46; Charles Woodson, Duane Starks and Antoine Winfield were in that class too.� A similar number were drafted in 1999 but past Bailey and McAlister (top 10), the quality was well down.

 

• 2003 was the year of the big hybrid CB/S with nine DB drafted in a run beginning at 28 (Andre Woolfolk) and continuing through Drayton Florence (45).� However, it�s worth noting though that the 2003 draft was weak in both OT and WR.� Leaving the former, where this class is little better, the WR group is much, much stronger.� We can expect 6-7 WR to be taken in the 1^st round; that alone should push the CB numbers back towards average.�

 

And FS:

 

FS	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	Average/Avatar
On the board at 1.11	1st	1st	1st	1st	2nd	1st	First Roy Williams
1st round total	1	0	0	1	2	0	One
On the board @ 44th selection	2nd	1st	4th	3rd	4th	3rd	Third Brain Dawkins Darren Sharper
Total thru 2nd	2	1	5	3	4	3	Three
On the board @ 75th selection	3rd	3rd	5th	4th	5th	4th	Fourth None noteworthy
Total thru 3rd	3	2	5	3	4	4	Three, four
On the board @ 106th selection	4th	4th	5th	5th	5th	6th	Fifth Lance Schulters

 

Both positions, transposed to the class of 2004:

 

	CB	FS	Remarks	BPA	Value cluster
Could be on the board at 1.11	DeAngelo Hall Dunta Robinson	Sean Taylor	Pass on Robinson	Kellen Winslow, TE Will Smith, OLB Phil Rivers, QB	WR, DE.
In the gap	Will Poole				RT
4th to 8th CB   44th overall   2nd to 4th FS	Ahmad Carroll Kevin Smith Derrick Strait Joey Thomas? Chris Gamble Jeremy LeSueur	Derrick Strait? Sean Jones Matt Ware	Of those DB, Sean Jones is value #1, except as Strait may be a 2/1 type player.	Ben Watson, TE Kelly Butler, RT	OG/OC
In the gap	Any of the above	Matt Ware	Ware is a trade down value
9th to 11th CB   75th overall   3rd to 5th FS	One above   R. Colclough Greg Brooks	Matt Ware S. Schweigart	Past Carroll and Smith above, I see little difference between CB 6 and CB 9.	Derrick Hamilton, WR	DT, CB
In the gap	Any below
13th to 15th CB   106th overall   4th to 6th FS	Marcel Almond Rich Gardner   Roc Alexander Bruce Thornton   (K. Millbrook) (A. Parker)	S. Schweigart J. Shivers M. Williams		Tim Anderson, DT	OG/OT types.

 

Remarks:

 

First day CB suspects from this class might be characterized as:

 

• The swift:� Hall, Robinson and Carroll ran 4.34 at the Combine; Hall and Carroll jumped out of the gym; all are strong enough to play.� While some regard Dunta Robinson as #1 at the position, IMO that rank belongs to DeAngelo Hall.� Hall is 1.11 worthy, although he may not be BPA at that spot.� I don�t see that value with Robinson, although I do believe he�ll be a top 20 pick.� Ahmad Carroll is about as athletic as Hall but just a bit smaller.� Pre-Combine, he was considered a rising 2^nd round pick; now, he�s a late first, IMO, headed for the St. Louis Rams.� Roc Alexander ran fast too but that won�t get him into the 1^st day.� Alexander has some injury issues; that risk factor will limit him to the early 4^th range.� There are character factors too, which will keep him out of Pittsburgh altogether.� Keith Millbrook of Hawaii might move up into the 4^th round range; Millbrook ran sub 4.4 at 6-1, 202# and did 21 reps. Anthony Parker is another 2^nd day athlete; though more likely a safety, Parker does have the size and speed to play press against those big WR entering the league.

 

• The raw:� Chris Gamble once was considered an elite pick but I don�t see it.� Gamble didn�t get under 4.5 in his Pro Day, even though timed on that very fast track in Columbus (where short, slow Mike Doss ran 4.4 or so last spring).� Worse, Gamble posted a Wonderlic 9; IMO, this player is dubious value at 44, let alone 11.� Joey Thomas is bigger, stronger, faster and more agile than Gamble; while he played at a low level (Montana State), he just can�t be less skilled.� The question with Thomas is whether he�s Charles Tillman (a player who could help immediately) or Drayton Florence (a downstream developmental prospect). Or Joseph Jefferson, Roosevelt Williams�� Then there�s Kevin Smith of McNeese State; Smith got high marks at the Senior Bowl; after that, he fattened to 200#, struggled to run and busted his agility drills.� However, Smith was a team leader at McNeese State, while there may be some character issues (related to confidence/arrogance or coachability) associated with Thomas.� Smith, along with Strait could be value @ 44; Thomas too (pending interview) but he may fall to 75, as did Derek Ross and William Peterson, two talents with inferable issues.� That said, considering the paucity of speed/size prospects at the position, I�m guessing both Gamble and Thomas will be going out (too) early.

 

• �The polished:� The pair of Will Poole and Derrick Strait once was regarded as most pro-ready, though neither were ever described as high upside types.� Of those, Poole has held value through this evaluation season but, for whatever reason, Strait has not.� Poole looks to be the 3^rd CB in this class; I�d think he�d be attractive to Cover 2 contenders like Indy or Carolina.� I see Strait is a CB/FS �tweener on the order of Corey Chavous or Eugene Wilson.� Those players were drafted in the low-mid 30�s and I think Strait will be too.� Maybe earlier, for example the Eagles might use him as a 3^rd CB this season while grooming him to take over for Brian Dawkins.

 

• Big school, big CB:� Jeremy LeSueur had a good Senior Bowl, which moved his stock from second day to second round.� However, he didn�t post a time at the Combine, and didn�t at his Pro Day either.� Speed is a question with this player, as is agility.� Marcel Almond was the 2^nd corner at USC (behind Poole) but could be a better pro.� Almond showed in Indy at 209# and did 21 reps but he couldn�t run under 4.6.� However, he did have a good Pro Day, averaging less than 4.5.� Almond has played CB for about 1-� seasons; prior to that, he was a WR but his main sport was track, where he had some success in the decathlon.� He has size, strength, enough speed and agility, and good ball skills; however, there are some questions about his football toughness.� Rich Gardner of PSU is moving up steadily, as did Bryan Scott in 2003.

 

• The weak and small:� Ricardo Colclough is another CB that showed well at the Senior Bowl; however, Colclough has been slowed by a hamstring ailment in this evaluation season.� Additionally, he did a Gamble-esque 11 Wonderlic and just 8 reps�� Though evidently weak and not too bright, Colclough has some value as a developmental CB and PR; that said, those are two aspects where the PS do have some numbers.� Finally, both Kerwan Ratliff and Nathan Vasher ran themselves out of the first day, posting +4.6 in the 40. That�s not good for any DB; for small ones, it�s a ticket to football oblivion.

 

And the FS:

 

• Sean Taylor has had a tough off-season; he couldn�t get under 4.50 at the Combine; he did 12 reps there, which isn�t awful for a DB but is very poor for a 230# player; he fired off a 10 in the Wonderlic.� IMO, this prospect could fall some and be back in play at 1.11.

 

• Matt Ware is a quality single high FS prospect but his agility drills do not suggest much future as a CB; that Mike Williams, Reggie Williams and Rash Woods serially toasted him confirms that inference.� However, Ware is a SoCal guy; Malibu and UCLA; he could be said to be Malibu tough.

 

• Stuart Schweigart has all the tools: strength, speed, size and intelligence; he just won�t tackle.� That�s a disaster-in-waiting at FS, as we saw with the last double S here, Scott Shields.� IMO, Schweigart is a 4^th round prospect; his prime value earlier would be if some other team took him, so pushing Matt Ware towards the Steelers� 3^rd slot.

 

• Jason Shivers, Will Allen, Madieu Williams have little to offer that Chris Hope doesn�t provide.� The same may be said of Dexter Reid and Ettric Pruitt.

 

• For value at the spot, my first day DB pick is Sean Jones, R2.� If Houston gets Taylor at 1.10, Jones may come through; if not, the Texans will snap him up in R2.

 

• Second day sleeper:� Rashad Washington.

 

Afterword:

 

I�d encourage you to read the player profiles at NFL. com.� Skip the test results though; those are demonstrably inaccurate as we saw last spring when that site persisted in listing Sammy Davis and Dennis Weathersby as 4.6 guys when in fact they�d run 4.41 and 4.38 respectively.� That same site does a fine job tracking Pro Day results, with Gil Brandt at the controls.� Draftxchange has some free Combine results, a rare commodity today.

 

Next Time:

 

DE and QB or maybe just O-line.