Stillers vs. Patriots Pregame Analysis (Game #7, vs. N.E.)
The 5-1 Stillers host the undefeated NE Patriots in a key
AFC battle this Sunday, in what could be a prelude to a rematch in the
playoffs.� The Stillers are well rested after
their bye week, while the Pats staved off a good Jets team en route to their
21st straight victory.�
* When the Pats have the ball, they'll be led
by Cool Hand Brady, as in Tom Brady.�
The 4th your pro has picked right up where he left off, and has had a
sterling season thus far.� He's doing
everything you could want from your QB -- leading the offense; passing
accurately, anticipating defensive pressure, and making key plays in the
clutch.� As many have noted, the
Stillers have benefited from playing opponents who have a combined record well
below .500, which helps.� More
importantly, though, and rarely mentioned, is that the Stillers have benefited
-- just as they did in 2001 -- from facing a host of inept, bumbling QBs.� The gang of 6 QBs they've faced is so
gawdawful and feeble that -- get this -- Vinny Testeverde stands heads &
shoulders above any other QB the Stillers have faced thus far.� Obviously, this changes on Sunday when Brady
visits Heinz Field.�
The NE ground game was a lukewarm, suspect piece of the
Patriots' two Super Bowl titles.� Now,
however, it is in the very capable hands, and legs, of Corey Dillon.� The veteran, winning atmosphere in NE has
kept the moody Dillon in check, and he's 4th in the conference in rushing along
with a notable 4.9 yards/carry.� When
Dillon needs a rest, as well as on 3rd downs, the Pats can turn to the
ever-trusty, vastly underrated do-it-all, Kevin Faulk, who provides a spark
both as a ballcarrier and a pass-catcher.�
Dillon has had some decent efforts against the Stillers in his earlier
days with the Bungals, but in his last 4 outings versus Pittsburgh, he's been
held to 60 yards or less each time.�
Dillon isn't the kind of slashing cutback runner that typically victimizes
the Stillers, but nevertheless, he's a big, talented back who's quite capable
of grinding down a defense.�
Patrick Pass doesn't pass the ball, but he runs the
occasional plunge and serves as a solid, though a bit undersized, FB.� The Pats depth chart took a hit last week
when LB/FB Dan Klecko was injured after a short reception while playing
FB.� Klecko had given the Pats a bigger,
brawnier blocking back, but he is out for this game.� Pass is also questionable with a thigh injury.�
If the Stillers were to lose their top 2 receivers, the
crying and caterwauling by Billy Cowher would be heard for miles on end.� The Pats have actually had that happen, yet
they keep on marching right along.� Troy
Brown, their best all-around playmaker, has caught all of 1 pass this season
and has played sparingly.� He's
questionable for this game.� Deion
Branch is their 2nd best WR, but he, too, has been nagged with injury and is
doubtful.� The pass-catching chores have
been left in the hands of The David's, Givens and Patten.� Both have excelled, with gaudy yards/catch
numbers of 18.5 and 17.9.� Givens, the
former Notre Dame 7th rounder, has found a nice rapport with Brady.� Stiller fans should remember Patten, who
hauled in the key TD reception from Bledsoe -- not Brady -- in the AFC Title
game nearly 3 years ago, while Jason GilDong loafed nearby.� WR Bethel Johnson has nice speed and is used
as a deep threat.� If Brown and Branch
were healthy, this would, in all likelihood, be the greatest 5-man WR corps
ever assembled in NFL history.� The Pats
simply have made the WR spot a "plug & play" position in which
they seem to get excellent production regardless of who is thrown the
pigskin.�
Because of injury at WR, and because the Pats believe in
using the TE as something more than a glorified 3rd tackle, the Pats get a lot
of mileage and productivity from their TEs in the passing game.� Dan Graham is a fine target at TE, and has
already grabbed 18 balls.� Graham is a
capable enough receiver to be used in the slot as well as out of the
traditional TE spot.� Christian Fauria
gives the Pats a very solid backup.�
Injury has hit this spot as well, with promising, mega-talented rookie
TE Ben Watson shelved for the year early in the season.�
The Pats O-line isn't dominant, but they are awfully
effective.� They seem to most always
provide just enough of a crack for the RB on ground plays, and just enough time
&/or space for Brady on pass plays.�
Dan Koppen, a 3rd round choice last year, anchors the middle of the line
at center, proving you don't need to invest 1st day draft picks or
mega-millions into the interior of your O-line.� That theory is reinforced with veterans Russ Hochstein and Joe
Andruzzi at OG.� For that matter,
starting RT Tom Ashworth was an undrafted FA a few years ago.� Ashworth, though, has an achy back, and is
questionable/doubtful for this tilt.� If
unable to play, he'll presumably be replaced by Brandon Gorin.� Former first-rounder Matt Light has the most
pedigree, and starts at the ever-critical LT spot.� Light is no slouch, but he susceptible to outside speed rushers
who have the ability to dash wide or cut underneath the oft-oafish Light.�
The Stillers defense is smarting from the season-ending loss
of NT Casey Hampton, the very best NT in the business.� You simply can't replace a unique NT like
Hampton, so all the Stillers can hope is that career benchwarmer Chris Hoke,
undersized for the job, can at least eat some space and hold his ground on
occasion.� Star ILB Kendrell Bell has
finally resumed practice for the 1st time all season, but I doubt he'll play,
or if he does, his PT will be very marginal.�
Charred Scott is out for the next 4-6 weeks, and at least this week will
be replaced in the starting lineup by Wee Willie Williams.� With any luck, this will be the first, and
final, start of the season for Wee Willie.�
Promising rookie CB Ricardo Colclough should see plenty of work in the
nickel.�� Veteran DB Mike Logan is also
out, which thins out the secondary depth and puts 2nd-year man Ike Taylor into
a prominent role in the dime.�
The key matchups will be:
�- Koppen vs.
Hoke.�� Koppen isn't a dominant blocker,
but if he can handle Hoke with relative ease, the guards will be free to put a
hat on Farrior and Foote.�
�- Wee Willie
Williams vs. any Pat receiver.� This
really could be quite ugly.� The Pats'
WR trio has enough speed to push off a slowpoke like Wee Willie -- who will
give away a 10-12 yard cushion -- and then curl back or turn out for the easy
pitch n' catch with Brady.� That said,
the Pats' trio has more than enough speed to simply blow past Wee Willie for
the big play downfield.�
- Ashworth/Gorin vs. LOLB Clark Haggans.� Ashworth, if he plays, will be hobbled by a
bad back.� Gorin is a traffic cone.� Regardless of who starts, Haggans should
dominate this matchup.�
* When the Stillers have the ball,
sensational rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger will work on his own personal streak
of 4 straight wins as a starter.� Like
Brady, Ben Roth has thus far done everything you could want from your QB --
leading the offense; passing accurately, anticipating defensive pressure, and
making key plays in the clutch.� Duce
Staley has been excellent, and the duo of Ward & Burress is easily among
the top 2 or 3 in the entire NFL.�
The Patriot offense gets loads of glory and headlines, but
to the football purist such as myself, it's the defense that is so very
impressive.� Bill Belichick has an
incredible knack of putting players into defensive spots and situations that
reap the maximum from their ability.�
Furthermore, Belichick knows how to exploit player versatility.� Unlike Billy Cowher, who drafts
multi-dimensional defensive players and then immediately and forever
pigeonholes them into being one-dimensional, Belichick takes a
multi-dimensional player and exploits the man's dimensions in exponential
fashion, and uses them in multiple roles that give his front 7 the ability to
show dozens of fronts, looks, stunts, and blitzes from the same 7 players.� Lastly, Belichick doesn't get caught up with
"measurables" or cookie-cutter prototypes; he simply looks for
defensive players who possess great instincts and the love of hitting.� This is why Belichick has gotten such
unbelievable mileage from the likes of Roman Pfifer, Willie McGinnest, Teddy
Bruschi, and Stiller castoff Mike Vrabel.�
The Pats play a modified 3-4, but as noted, with their
multi-dimensional players, they're just as likely to line up in a 6-2 as they
are a 4-3.� Big Vince Wilfork, their 1st
rounder, lines up on the nose, flanked by the outstanding DE Rich Seymour and
also Ty Warren, who isn't too shabby in his own right.� Fat Keith Traylor provides relief to
Wilfork.� Former Stiller DE Rodney
Bailey is with the Pats, but is shelved for the season on IR.�
The LB corps is absolutely incredible.� Along with the aforementioned Bruschi,
Vrabel, and McGinnest, Ted Johnson starts at LB.� Then there's the backups, including Pfifer, the ever-so-dangerous
Rosey Colvin, and former Cal product Tully Canta-Bain.�� McGinnest, Vrabel, and Colvin each play as
a down lineman on occasion. �
The secondary has, like most of the rest of the team, been
hit by injury.� Starting CB Tyronne
Poole has been hampered with a knee injury and is doubtful.� Either Randall Gay or Asante Samuel will
start in his place.� At the opposite
corner is all-world and former Pittsburgher Ty Law, who has few peers.� Hard-hitting Rodney Harrison starts at SS,
with the capable Eugene Wilson starting at FS.�
The key matchups will be:
�- Jeff Hartings vs.
Vince Wilfork.�� Big Vince had some
problems last week against Jets center Kevin Mawae.�� Of course, Mawae is without peer, so most NTs will have some
problems with him.�
- Stillers OGs Faneca and Vincent against the NE front
7.�� The mayhem caused by the NE
multi-dimensional front 7 is felt mostly by the OGs, who are in difficult
dilemmas on traps, pulls, and plays where 1-on-1 blocking is ordered in lieu of
zone blocking.� The difficulty lies in
not knowing which Patriot defender will go where on a given play.� Faneca and Vincent must minimize leakage and
make on-the-fly adjustments.�
- Ward vs. Law.� This
is a classic mano-o-mano matchup, featuring 2 of the game's best.� Regrettably, much of this matchup will never
been seen on TV.�
- DC Romeo Crennel vs. OC Ken Whisenhunt.� Dating back to the Jan. '96 playoff whipping
of the Stillers, the Pats have really bogged down the Stiller offense, mostly
due to their ability to gap-shoot and topple The Tubby Tailback, Jerome
Bettis.� Duce Staley gives the Stillers
much more speed and versatility, which the Pats haven't had to face in the past
5 meetings.�
- Ben Roth vs. the Pat secondary.� Equally important are the looks and schemes that Crennel and
Belichick throw at Ben Roth.� You can be
quite sure that Ben Roth will see stuff on Sunday that the Pats haven't shown
all season thus far.� Roth has seen
quite a bit in his first 4 starts, but nothing compares to what a Belichick, or
an in-his-prime Joe Paterno, can throw at a young QB.��
�* Special Teams: �Adam Vinatieri is simply the best clutch
booter in the NFL right now.� Former
Stiller Slosh Miller punts for the Pats, and hopefully he'll still do his
trademark inspection of the football air pressure and Tagliabue's signature
before he puts his foot into each punt.�
Bethel Johnson handles most of the KO returns, while Faulk does the bulk
of the PRs.�
Intangibles:
� *Coaching.� Both head coaches in
this game are named Bill, and both are high-profile, mega-millionaires.� Only one deserves all those millions and the
hoopla, of course, and his name is Bill Belichick.� Mr. Belichick is one of the greatest head coaches to ever coach
in the NFL, and has a sure spot in the NFL Hall of Fame.� On the other sideline is the grossly
over-rated, overpaid, underachieving Billy Cowher, who doesn't deserve to even
stand on the same stage as Belichick.�
Few fans will forget the brutal assbeating that Belichick and his Pats
administered to Bilbo Cowher in the Jan. '02 AFC championship game at Heinz
Field.��
� * Home field
advantage.� Obviously,
home field is a no-brainer.� But let's face
it -- Heinz Field has been a sterile, far from raucous home venue.� Partially because of the open end of the
stadium, and partially because it simply doesn't have the lore and legacy of 3
Rivers Stadium, Heinz Field has frankly been disappointing as a home field
advantage.� However, due to the fact
that the Pats bring in their gaudy 21-game winning streak, coupled with the
late 4:15 start that will allow Stiller fans to really fuel up on booze and
beer, I fully expect Sunday's game to be the loudest game in Heinz Field's
young history.� This game should have
the same buzz and excitement of the regular season game versus the Denver
Doncos in the 1997 season.�
� * Halloween nite.� Don't laugh.� Weird stuff happens on Halloween.�
* Synopsis: What a game that awaits.� Perfect time of the year, and on Halloween
to boot.� 5-1 Stillers hosting the
unbeaten, 21-game winning streak Patriots.�
Damn the luck that I can't be there for this barnburner.� I have pored through piles of research in
preparation of this pregame, hoping to find something to aid in a
prediction.� (Note that I take
post-season predictions far more seriously than regular season ones, because
post season is a do or die proposition.�
The major objective of the regular season pregame analysis is to do just
that -- analyze -- not predict the final outcome.)� Can the Stillers bust the streaking Pats?� Frankly, I'm not so sure, especially with
Hoke, Wee Willie, and a rookie QB.�
However, I've quickly grown tired of the Dead Sox fans and their 8-game
winning streak, as well as this 21-gamer by the Patsies.� Obviously, if this were the playoffs, it
would be a no brainer to pick the Pats to win, but If any team can end a streak
like this, at home, in the regular season, it's the Pittsburgh Stillers.� And I expect a letdown from the Pats, who
had a far more important game last week, putting away undefeated divisional
rival New York.� For the Pats, then,
this week's game pales in terms of importance.�
Putting an end to the excessive Boston fanfare and adoration, the
Stillers will play the role of rude host and slap down the Patsies, 19-16.�
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