2004 Game 2 Preview: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
The 1-0 Steelers have a chance to put the defending AFC North Champion Ravens down 2 games; naturally, the Poe-Birds are looking to get back to even.� In large measure, the Steelers took their opener behind that pressure their Front 7 got on Raider vet QB Rich Gannon; off that, Gannon threw 2 picks and lost a fumble.� In large measure, the Ravens went down at Cleveland because, exactly like Gannon, their QB, Kyle Boller, threw two picks and lost a fumble.�� Accepting that as the difference-breaker in both cases:
When the Ravens have the ball:
Baltimore entered the season with the NFL rush champ, Jamal Lewis, and with a QB, Boller, whose 2003 passer rating (62.4) was #31, of 32 starters.� Boller�s backup, Kordell Stewart, then of Chicago, accomplished (56.8), which was #32 in that category.� Given they�re great at RB and bad at QB you�d figure Baltimore to run and run often but in Cleveland the Ravens ran just 26 times, with Lewis getting 20 totes.� In contrast, the Poes put it up 38 times (and took 3 sacks).� Part of that could have been a matter of field position: Baltimore got the ball inside their own 20 in all five 1st half possessions last week; certainly, that limited their options, especially with Cleveland bringing their short yardage 4-4-3 pack.� There�s also the factor that, in their last two possessions, the Ravens, down 17 points, threw on 13/14 snaps.� Prior to that, Baltimore did show some balance; even tilting run-ward in their first 5 2nd half possessions, when they ran 12 times against 9 passes.� Still, it amounts to this: in the first half, Cleveland did put 8 in the box, daring the Ravens to throw.� Baltimore took that up but got nothing done.�
More than likely, they won�t make that mistake again.� Last season, Baltimore passed 414 times (plus taking 41 sacks or 455 passes called).� They ran 553 times so, roughly 55/45 run to pass.� More to the point, the Ravens were #1 running the ball and #32 throwing; at home, down 0-1, I�d expect they would try to re-establish their smashmouth identity.�� So, it�s likely to be Lewis early and Lewis often, or strength on strength: the league�s top power RB against a PS defense configured to stop that kind of attack.�
For sure, the Ravens are beat-up on the O-line.� Consider:
- They entered the season with just 3 OT active.� One, Ethan Brooks (who was replacing Ogden at LT last week) is out with injury.� Too bad, since long-time journeyman Kenard Lang abused Brooks badly in Cleveland, but there it is.� Now, Ogden is back, if at some fraction of his capacity and if he can�t last, the Ravens may have to field #4 OT Tony Pashos.� Pashos is practice squad guy; he�s big but he�s got very, very slow feet.� For sure, neither he nor Orlando Brown is suited for the left side.� When Brooks went down last week, Damion Cook came on at LT; Cook�s play there showed why he�s listed as a back-up OG.
- OC Mike Flynn is out.� There is little chance back-up Casey Rabach can single up on Casey Hampton; instead, Hampton figures to get the double team attention that drives the Steelers� 34.�� Both Edwin Mulitalo and Bennie Anderson are big, strong OG but Mulitalo has a nagging leg problem that limited his mobility last week while Anderson hasn�t shown much of that at any time.���
The Steelers figure to load up to stop Jamal Lewis.� However, I doubt they�ll mimic Cleveland�s set, since they are thin upfront, with just 5 healthy D-linemen; plus, of their 7 healthy LB, 3: Zo, Kriewaldt and Harrison figure (respectively) as bench ornament and ST guys.� Against that, two starting safeties who play like LB and a 3rd safety, Logan, better in the box than deep, and it seems most likely the PS will run their base with a safety down.� Any dime pack figures to be heavy (3S), (contrary to the notion Willie Williams would figure in the dime), as was true last weekend vs. Oakland.
That�s how they stopped the Ravens ground attack in Game 16, 2003.� Having been gashed on Baltimore�s opening drive, the PS did drop Logan down.� Anthony Wright didn�t get much done then; off last week�s work, Kyle Boller doesn�t figure to get much this Sunday.� Consider:
- Last week, against the Browns� 4-4-3, Boller was 22/38 for 191 yards.�� That�s a pathetic 5.02 YPA; per completion, far worse at 8.68.� Shades of the late 90�s here, facing 8 in the box, the Ravens were going short and Boller was missing the mark.
- However, it can�t all be on Boller as the Ravens are thin at WR too.� They�ve got 5 on the active roster; of those:� Travis Taylor is questionable; Kevin Johnson is a decent 2nd but little more; Randy Hymes is a good athlete though, being a converted QB, rough as a WR.� The others are rookies; the highest pick, Devard Darling, has a hamstring problem.� Last week, this crew combined for just 11 grabs for 87 yards; the LG being 17, by Hymes.� While the Raider WR figured to overmatch the PS DB last week (and too often did), that is not so for this unit.
The Raven TE group is a stiffer test.� Todd Heap is a top 5 guy league-wide.� Heap rarely plays in line, rather splitting wide; Heap poses match-up problems for most teams, the PS will be no exception.� Last week, Denver put CB Champ Bailey on KC TE Tony Gonzales.� The Steelers have tried the same with Chad Scott on Gonzales, and probably will do so this week with Scott on Heap.� Heap is the Ravens� primary receiver (9 catches, 86 yards last week); Terry Jones is the blocking TE, although his 30 grabs and 4 TD over the past 2 seasons would make him the Steelers� primary receiving threat at the position.� Dave Wilcox is #3, a FB sized player who acts as the Raven�s F-back; Wilcox did figure some with 2 catches for 30 yards in Cleveland.�� Last week, the Ravens opened in a 3-TE set; presuming their likely run emphasis this weekend, this could be their package of choice this Sunday.� Regardless, to win the PS D must:
- Limit Lewis: that�s 8 in the box, unless the Ravens force them out.
- Baffle Boller: Coach LeBeau flummoxed Gannon last week; Boller is an easier mark.
- Contain Heap: best accomplished by pressure on the QB as last week LeBeau�s blitz pack thwarted the Raider spread, forcing Oakland to split backfield protection on either side of Gannon.
IMO, the PS has the personnel to accomplish the first and the DC to accomplish the second.� Heap figures to be a problem but as Semper Bill had it at the weekly scribble:� �that�s what we�ve got Troy for.�� Well, I doubt that but we�ll see; on the other side:
When the Steelers have the ball, they�ll be facing a unit that, arguably, was the best defense in football last season.� The Ravens were: #1 in sacks, 2nd in 3rd down conversions against, T-2 in takeaways, 3rd in 1st downs allowed and 3rd in yards allowed per game.� While they were just 6th in scoring defense, that was largely a consequence of the O-side giving the ball away 34 times.� Why so good?� Well, the Ravens do have some prime time play makers, predominately:
Ravens� 2003 D-numbers:
|
|
T |
FF |
Sacks |
INT |
PD |
|
Ray Lewis |
163 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
14 |
|
Ed Reed |
70 |
1 |
3 |
7 |
15 |
|
Terrell Suggs |
27 |
6 |
12 |
1 |
3 |
Of 24 INT the Ravens recorded then, Lewis and Reed combined for 13.� While Deshea Townsend led the Steelers in PD and INT combined with 17, both Reed and Lewis were at 20 or beyond.� Contributing in a similarly out-sized fashion, Suggs had 12 of the Ravens 47 sacks and 6 of their 21 FF.� IMO, these 3 are the Ravens� primary play makers; factor in high level contributors like Pro Bowl CB Chris McAlister, Pro Bowl OLB/ST player Adalius Thomas and ILB Edge Hartwell, whose numbers do resemble Farrior�s, and it�s apparent that Baltimore�s D-side prowess rests on a solid foundation of talent.�
A couple of observations:
- Since he stepped onto the field as a starter in his rookie season, Ed Reed has brought the kind of impact at SS that the PS must hope Polamalu can achieve.� However, Reed can be had on the kind of pump action Gannon put on Polamalu.� Indeed, Jeff Garcia took advantage of Reed in the same way last weekend, on a 46-yard completion to Quincy Morgan, the Browns� first big play of that day.�
- Back in 2000-02, when the Ravens plied that jumbo DT set, Ray Lewis played at about 260#.� When the Ravens morphed to a 3-4 in 2002, Ray morphed too, dropping about 15#.� As evident by those 6 INT, 14 PD, this steam-lined Ray is fast enough to make those deep drops MLB must get in Cover 2.� It is the interchange between Lewis and Reed that drives the Ravens� packages.� If he�s to show as T-Gun, not Turnover Tommy, Maddox must be highly aware of where both are headed, on every play.�
- The Ravens had the luxury of bringing Suggs off the bench in 2003.� Not so this season, as Peter Boulware is on the PUP list now.� A perennial Pro Bowl player, Boulware had something of a down campaign last year but still chipped in 8.5 sacks, 5.5 TFL and 3 FF (far better than any 2003 Steeler OLB).�� Certainly, OC had to protect against Boulware and that did help Suggs.� Now, as a featured rusher, Terrell is on his own.�
Baltimore was been a big play defense in 2003 but got little done in that area last week: a couple sacks but no INT, no FF, not even a PD.� On the other hand, they did stuff the Browns, most of the time.� The Ravens limited Cleveland to 10 first downs, 2.8 YPC and 4.5 yards per play.� Cleveland ran 55 plays in all; they got 250 total yards.� However, they did manage two big pass plays, for 46 and 51 yards; these broke up a game that had been knotted at 3-3 with 16 minutes to play.� Still, if 2 plays for 97 yards then otherwise, 53 plays and 153 yards; in short, as were Steelers with the Raiders, the Ravens were a couple snaps from totally throttling the Browns.
Last week, the Steeler O had problems moving the ball; their 237 yards total offense puts their offense behind those lightly regarded units in both Baltimore and Cleveland, though in the same pitiful popgun class.� As noted here previously, the PS O was 3 and out 6 times in 11 Week 1 (weak one?) possessions.� Put another way:� they had the ball for 8:31 at the beginning and 4:40 at the end; in between 16:02, which is to say, in the vast middle of the game, Oakland possessed the ball at about a 2:1 rate.�
That can�t happen this week.� Assuming the Ravens run it early and often, this figures to be a much more physical match than that against the Raiders.� As noted, the PS D is thin upfront; if the O goes 3 and out more often than not, that D-set is liable to get ground down late.� TOP is going to be a considerable factor and for the PS, the emphasis has to be:�
- Pound the pig; control the clock, set-up play action:� If the PS can make Ray Lewis play the run early (and get a helmet in his throat on most downs) then Ray may be just a bit slow dropping into that deep seam late.
- Get the RB into the pass game, especially on screens to Suggs� side.�� Last week, the Steelers directed 5 passes to Staley: 1 complete, 1 drop, and 2 INC; the 5th was complete too but nullified by penalty.� Suggs has established that he can play going forward; the PS should examine his lateral ability.� The Suggs v. Ross match doesn�t look favorable to the PS; the PS can give Oliver help or they can try to slow Suggs, making him think before reacting.
Last week, the Steelers� interior O-line played Ted Washington and the rest to a standoff, or better.� Special praise is due Jeff Hartings, who held his own against Big Ted far better than he had done in 2003 against lesser NT.� Baltimore has no D-linemen in Washington�s class; in fact, this is one area where the Steeler D has a real talent advantage when compared to the Ravens�.� Baltimore plays D-line by committee, rotating in 6 guys; one, Kelly Gregg, is out Sunday but on the flip side, the PS will get their first look at R2 rookie Dwan Edwards.�
While last week, the PS O-line had to root out the immoveable (and immobile), this week they�ll have to locate the Ravens� gap-shooting DL.� While Ross/Vincent may have some problems with Marques Douglas, IMO, the O-line can drive those guys back.� Ultimately though, the PS is going to have to score through the air, where that re-match between Spike and Chris McAlister figures.� Over the past 3 seasons:
Burress� # against the Ravens:�
|
|
Receptions |
Yards |
TD |
Result |
Remarks |
|
2001 |
4, Game 1 8, Game 2 |
56 164 |
1 1 |
L W |
Game 2, Spike finally flashed the game-breaking ability dormant for a season and a half. |
|
2002 |
5 3 |
55 52 |
2 0 |
W W |
Burress dominated in the first half of Game 1 before being ejected along with Raven dime DB James Trapp.� Bad trade. |
|
2003 |
6 1 |
116 13 |
0 0 |
W L |
Good Game 1, disastrous Game 2. |
27 receptions, 456 yards, 4 TD; over 16 games that figures to 72 catches, 1216 yards and 11 TD.� That�s a Pro Bowl season although Game 2, 2001 accounts for a huge portion.� Burress has dominated a game and a half; made big contributions in one other win but been fairly quiet in 3.� IMO, his rep v. McAlister rests on one full game and half of another; of those, none in the past 3.�
Ward�s # against the Ravens:
|
|
Receptions |
Yards |
TD |
Result |
Remarks |
|
2001 |
9 1 |
97 7 |
0 0 |
L W |
|
|
2002 |
8 5 |
97 46 |
0 1 |
W W |
|
|
2003 |
9 2 |
91 11 |
2 0 |
W L |
|
34 receptions, 349 yards and 3 TD; over 16 games, that figures to 91 catches, 930 yards and 8 TD. �That�s good, not great; included in there, two of Hines� least productive games as a starter.� Finally:
Maddox�s numbers v. Ravens as a starter:
|
|
Attempts |
Complete |
Yards |
TD |
INT |
Rating |
|
Game 1, 2002 |
24 |
18 |
172 |
2 |
1 |
104.9 |
|
Game 2, 2002 |
30 |
20 |
194 |
2 |
2 |
79.0 |
|
Game 1, 2003 |
29 |
21 |
260 |
3 |
0 |
134.3 |
|
Game 2, 2003 |
27 |
14 |
108 |
0 |
3 |
15.7 |
On average, 18 of 28 for 184 yards, 2 TD (but 2 INT) and a rating of 83.7.� Of course, there�s no average with Tommy.� Against the Ravens, he�s had two excellent games, one terrible game and one, (2, 2003), where he was awful early and great late.� To win Sunday, the PS will need the good Tommy to show; to win Sunday, they�re going to have to be in a position to limit Maddox�s throws to that standing Raven-average, 28.� That means they�re going to have to run the ball effectively but, hell, you knew that.
Digits of dubious value, a salute to the
Greensburg TR:
- As noted here first in 2002 (Now Wait For Last Year), for the Cowher Steelers, opening day wins haven�t correlated with PO appearances.� At this point, the PS has gone 2-6 opening seasons where they made the playoffs and 3-1 when they did not.� This year?� Well, we�ll see.
- The last 3 Super Bowl Champs dropped their openers.�
- Generally, the 10-win formula is 6-2 at home and 4-4 on the road.� Winning at home, the PS kept that in order; losing on the road, the Ravens did too.� A Steeler win Sunday bucks the trend; a Raven win would be pro forma.
�