The Run Game, then and now

August 07, 2005 by Steel Phantom

Long before William Laird Cowher took the reins, the Steelers were a run-first team.� Nothing has changed but restricting this to the Reign of Cowher, these figures, as lifted from profootballreference:

	Rush attempts (RA), League rank	Rush yards, (RY) League rank	Remarks
1992	2	4	All Foster, all the time; overused with 390 carries this season, Foster had just 393 total over the next 2.�� Haselrig flashes.
1993	5	6	Searcy takes over for Tunch at RT.� Foster and Thompson split the load
1994	1	2	Year 2 of RB by committee, now Foster and Bam Morris.� Haselrig winks out.�
1995	5	12	Foster is gone; Pegram and Morris split the load.� Though regarded as the Year of Slash and the 5-wide, it�s worth noting the PS were just 9^th in PA
1996	3	2	Searcy departs but Wolford and the Bus arrive.
1997	1	1	New QB, but that great O-line and Bettis remain intact for a 2^nd go.�
1998	8	7	Jackson departs; Stephens and Wiggins do not so much carpe diem as crap the bed.�
1999	5	10	Wolford retires and Jugs is through.� Gandy arrives via FA but the Steelers still don�t have a RT.�
2000	2	4	Tylski replaces Stai at RG.� Smith drafted but due to injury, lightly regarded vet FA Larry Tharpe gets nearly as much time
2001	1	1	Dawson closed out in 2000 but Hartings arrives via FA.�
2002	3	9	Simmons drafted, plays acceptably early in his rook campaign but struggles to the close.� To date, that marks the high point of his career
2003	16	31	Gandy departs.� O-line racked by injury and illness.��
2004	1	2	As Bettis did in 2001, Staley jumpstarts the run game, before sitting down with injury.�

Of note:

The Cowher-men have been top five in RA in 11 of 13 seasons; both years they missed that mark, they missed the PO too.�

The Cowher-men have been top five in RY in 7 of 13 seasons:� they reached the PO in 6 of those 7, otherwise, 3 of 6.�

Four times, the Cowher-Steelers have led the League in RA; each time, they reached the AFCC.� (Each time they lost, at home, but that�s another article).

Five times, the Cowher-Steelers have been #1 or 2 in RY; in 4 of those 5 seasons, they reached the AFCC.�

Are there other ways to do it?� Sure, St. Louis has won throwing more than they�ve run, as did Tampa Bay.� But that�s not the Steelers� style, not now, not ever.� For example, here are the RA ranks for those Super Steelers, 1974-1979: 4, 5, 1, 10, 3 and 12 (10^th being the (relatively) dismal 1977 campaign and 12^th 1979 when Harris was a shadow of himself.).� Those teams ranked lower in PA: 10, 24, 28, 16, 22 and 10.�

Then, the PS ran more than they threw, as remains so.� That�s the way it is; that�s the way it was, as then, so now and, presumably evermore.� In fairness, it should be acknowledged that RA is a stat partially dependent on game situations: ahead, behind, early or late.� Indeed, Coach Cowher, asked recently at St. Vin�s, suggested that the 2004 PS split about 50/50 run to pass in the 1^st half, with that overall 61% the consequence of a run-heavy, clock-chewing, lead-conserving 2^nd.� True?� Well:

Run/Pass Splits:� Pass attempt total includes sacks against; RA not corrected for kneeldowns.

	1^st half Run/pass	Game total Run/pass	2^nd half Run/pass
Oakland	19/16	33/24	14/8
@ Baltimore	10/13	25/37	�� 15/24
@ Miami	20/12	38/23	18/11
Cincinnati	19/18	40/26	21/8
Cleveland	17/17	43/21	26/4
@Dallas	13/14	29/28	16/14
NE	19/18	49/24	30/6
Philadelphia	24/13	56/20	32/7
@ Cleveland	22/12	47/18	25/6
@ Cincinnati	18/14	40/28	22/14
Washington	17/15	38/24	21/9
@ Jacksonville	15/8	25/20	10/12
NJJ	12/12	31/22	19/10
@NJG	21/15	39/32	18/17
Baltimore	12/15	42/20	30/5
Buffalo	21/21	43/27	22/6
Totals	279/233 54% run	618/394 61% run	339/161 73.5% run

�Worth noting:

The 2004 PS led at the half in 13 of 16 regular season games.� The exceptions were: Baltimore 1, Dallas and Cincinnati 2.� Those were 2 of 3 games when the 2004 PS threw more in the first half than they ran; the other was Baltimore 2, when the staff may have out-schemed their Poe-bird counterparts.�

In the first half column, five games are boldfaced. In those, the Steelers were, cumulatively, +42 in run to pass attempts.� On the season, they were +46 in that half so, as Coach Cowher suggested, the Steelers generally were 50/50 in last season�s first halves.� It�s worth noting that (uncharacteristic) early run-only mode made good sense in the monsoon in Miami, against the Eagles, who had yet to install Jeremiah Trotter as their starting MLB (happened the following week) and Cleveland, a team that, somehow, was even worse against the run than Cincinnati. �However, that mode made little sense against the jumbo DT tandem in DE-free Jacksonville and, as we�ll see, even less in the AFCC v. New England.�

In the second half column, seven games are boldfaced.� Those are the +70% run halves.� Generally, those constellate around Roethlisberger�s initial starts, or the close, when he sat out.�

In only two games did the PS pass more than run in half two.� Those were: over the brutal flogging in Baltimore and circumstantial attending to a close game in Jacksonville.

Generally, the schema was: run/pass 50/50 in the 1^st half, grab a lead and then grind.� The 2004 Steelers were the first NFL team since the Ditka Bears to go over 600 RA.� Those monstrously run heavy 2^nd halves contributed in that regard but in contemporary terms not so much.� Had the Steelers simply duplicated their first halves RA total, 279, then they�d still have led the League in RA.� 279 x 2 = 558; last season, Denver was 2^nd in the League with 534 RA.� That is, early, when the games were in doubt, the Steelers still ran more prolifically than any team in the League.�

This season, we can expect the PS to show considerably more balance.� That 1^st half mark, 54/46, may morph to the total.� Its likely Roethlisberger can hold up his end; as for the receiving corps, well, time will tell.� Then too, presuming that the O-side flourishes with a pass supplement, there is the question of TOP.� Last year, the PSD was #1 in football in large measure because the PSO was #1 in time of possession.� Certainly, a defense starting: Hoke, Foote, Haggans and Williams wasn�t winning on talent.� As the run game was integral to the O-side, it was as instrumental in the success that the D enjoyed.� For that reason, if none other, 2005 opponents will do what they can to take away, or attenuate, the PS run game.� Can they?� Well:

It�s still a copycat League.�� In the AFCC, the Pats deployed, part time, in the old Bears 46; suitable to stuff an inside running power team, especially one that doesn�t utilize the TE as a receiver.� Rumor has it, the 46 will be the set of choice in Baltimore this season; the Titans, against whom the Steelers open, have long employed that set.�

Additionally, the PS will face a number of 3-4 teams including: NE, San Diego, Houston and Cleveland. �They will face several 4-3 teams that employ the UT/NT mode too.� Those include Minnesota, with Pat Williams on the nose; Detroit, with Shaun Rogers and Green Bay, with Grady Jackson.

That�s considerable beef.� Last season, the strength of the PSO resided inside with the IOL trio of Faneca, Hartings and Vincent.� We can presume that Faneca will continue as a dominant OG.� Hartings may reprise his Pro Bowl season; however, it is worth noting that the main rap on this player has been his capacity to anchor vs. NT.� He�ll get his chance this year; as noted above, (9) opponents� bases feature NT, including (2) in-division rivals.

Finally, Simmons; here, the short form is that in the past four seasons, the PSO twice has been top 2 in rushing, in 2001 and 2004.� Personnel-wise, the O-line constants were:� Smith, Faneca, Hartings and Ross.� Gandy and Vincent, respectively, filled out the five.� In 2002, the PSO slumped to #9 rushing; in 2003, plunged to 31^st.� The constant?� Kendall Simmons.�

Simmons has some proving to do but the early returns are not encouraging.� Consider this, from Jim Wexall of Steel City Sports, on-site from Latrobe:�

�� Kendall Simmons struggled earlier this week in the heat with his diabetes, but said that had nothing to do with his poor performance in one-on-one pass-blocking drills Friday. Simmons was cleanly beaten all four times.

�I�m just missing with my hands a little bit, but that�s not a problem,� Simmons said. �That�s something I�m not even worrying about it. That�s part of it. You�re not going to win all of them. No way. As long as I�m out there blocking in run drills and team pass and the one-minute (drills), and he isn�t getting to the quarterback, that�s what matters. I could care less about that drill over there. I�m not even worried about that over there at all. I�m going to have my days where I�m going to get them all and I�m going to have days where I look like I did today. You�re going to have those days. As long as I get it done out there, that�s all that matters.�

On the plus side, Jim Jones, like Vincent a former UDFA, has looked pretty good.� Jones, spurned by Baltimore, arrived here two years ago weighing ~ 290.� At this point, he�s up to 320#, rightside weight.� Reportedly though, rookie Chris Kemoeatu, who is even bigger, did not show clue 1 in Week 1 at Latrobe.�

Potentially, the situation is worse at RT.� Last winter, the PS FO went after oft-injured Adrian Klemm, perennial disappointment Stockar McDougle and the vastly underrated Pork Chop Womack.� They harvested none; at this point, their RT candidates, Starks, Essex and Barrett Brooks have totaled (0) starts over the New Millennium.� Starks might do; he is one of 3 experience-free 2^nd year players slated to start at RT this year (the others: Adrian Jones, NJJ and Kelly Butler, Lions).� Essex is unlikely to be ready and, in limited action, Brooks has shown why, in the 90s, he�d lost two starting jobs and why, in the past (4) seasons, he has made all of (7) appearances.�

The PS could do worse than signing vet� FA Scott Gragg.� Gragg is not a great OT but he is dependable, having made 142 of a possible 144 starts over the past 9 years.� The NJG in �97 and several Mariucci Niner teams ran effectively with Gragg at RT.� Chances are, the PS could too; those chances go sharply down with, say, Brooks.� Additionally, Gragg can play either OG spot; as noted above, the PS may have need in that area too.

The stat gnomes at Football Outsiders suggest that RB peak at about age 28.� Two current exceptions are: Priest Holmes and Curtis Martin.� However, it�s worth noting that, in football years, Holmes is a relatively young back.� A scrub with Baltimore early in his career, Holmes enters 2005 with just 1615 career carries.� That�s on par with Fred Taylor (1637), who is 3 years younger, and just a bit more than Ahmad Green (1528), who is 4 years younger.�

In contrast, Bettis is a year older than Holmes and has 3369 carries.� That�s #3 all-time; by way of context, that sum exceeds the combined total established by Tiki Barber and Edge James (total for 2: 3362).� It exceeds the combined total of LT, Jamal Lewis and the Saints� new bonus prince, Deuce McAlister too (total for 3: 3508).�

Martin is an exception: #4 in career RA, just behind Bettis and #4 in RY, just ahead of Bettis.� The Jets still look to Martin to be their guy.� Not so here where the Steelers can project, maybe, 200 carries from Bettis but must hope that Duce Staley will be their stud.�� The trouble is:

the clock has struck 30 for Duce too; that, and his balky knees, does not promise a reprise of his 2004 start.� As likely, any reprise will feature his 2004 close.� On the plus side, applying the Holmes standard, Staley is a relatively young 30.� His 1392 career carries compare to Tomlinson�s 1363.��

Haynes is young enough but injury has kept him from parts of each of his three seasons.� Willie Parker can go but like most young RB has problems in blitz pickup.� Until he gets it, the PS won�t gamble the Franchise on Parker; if he gets it, well, its still no sure thing that he can grind the rock 300-odd times.� The short form is: the PS will give 3 roster spots expecting, for any given Sunday,� to have available any 2 of Bettis, Staley and Haynes.� Fold in Parker as a part-timer and, well, there you go.� Finally:�

Someone has to move the safety:� In 2003, the Steelers got a steady diet of Cover 2 because they couldn�t run the ball at all.� That�s the converse of those years, �98-�00, in the Valley of the Shadow of Slash.� After Thigpen hooked it, the Steelers couldn�t go downfield; therefore, the Bus, and those less than stellar O-lines, faced a steady diet of 8,9 in the box.� Now, except as their smurf WR imitate the Pats� smurfs, or they use Heath Miller effectively as a receiver (ref: 46 Ravens above), these PS may be inclined to reprise the bad old days at the end of those thousand years past.�

That history displayed in the opening table suggests that these PS will decline from their 2004 highwater marks of #1 in RA and #2 in RY.� That�s happened before, excluding the young Bus and the great O-line of �96-�97, pretty much every time before.� That said, the decline is unlikely to reach the abyss that was 2003; more probably, 1^st 5 in RA and 2^nd 5 in RY, which is to say: top 5 RA and top 10 RY.� Good enough?� Well, sure, if the Franchise is the franchise, and if the D can hold up over, say, 29 minutes, rather than their habitual 25.� If not, not.�

Footnote:

As shown in the second table above, the 2004 PS generally were 50/50 run/pass in all first halves.� During the regular season, they deviated (as Coach Cowher likes to say) in just 5 games: Miami, Philadelphia, Cleveland 2, NJG and (mysteriously) in Jacksonville.� Pulling those out, the 2004 PS ran, in 11 opening halves, all of (4) times more than they threw (or were sacked).� It would have been good if Coach Cowher hadn�t been deterred (as he says) from that formula in game-planning the AFCC.� Well, maybe good and maybe not but it could hardly have been worse.� Here are the figures, for both teams, both for the Halloween Massacre and the AFCC disappointment that followed.��

	1^st half Run/pass	Game total Run/pass	2^nd half Run/pass
Steelers, Halloween	19/18	49/24	30/6
Pats.	4/23	6/47	2/24
Steelers, AFCC	23/10	37/24	14/14
Pats	10/11	32/21	22/10

Balance counts:

Halloween, the PS utilized a 1^st half run/pass ratio of 19/18 to score early and often.� In the AFCC, the PS utilized a 2^nd half run/pass ratio of 14/14 to score often, but too late.�

In the AFCC, NE got out early with a 10/11 rate and then, Steeler-style, salted it with a run heavy 22/10.�

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