Stillers-Jackers Pregame Outlook
The Stillers square off against
the GB Jackers in Sup Bowl 45, in an epic battle of yellow pants
and long-maned defensive stars.��
This will focus on the
overall keys to this game.��
Stiller Offensive Keys:
- The #1 key on offense is, of course, Bruce
Arians extracting his head from buttocks sometime prior to kickoff.� If this were to occur, the Stillers have a
fighting chance.�� If it doesn�t -- and
if Arians� head remains firmly implanted in his rump -- you can expect a long
evening of lethargic slop n� slather of the highest magnitude.� Of course, the Stiller
offense is not a scheme at all; rather, it�s a half-hazard assortment of
grab-bag playcalls and Ben�s �improvision�
(to borrow from Billy Cowher) on ad-hoc plays.���
- With Doug Legursky
likely starting at center for the injured Pouncey, the ugliest matchup for PIT is Leggo against
NT B.J. Raji.���
Built similarly to Fat Casey Hampton, Raji has
12 times the quickness, motor, and athleticism.�� The only NT in the entire NFL that impresses
me more is Balt�s Haloti Ngata.�� Raji isn�t quite as knifing and disruptive as Ngata, but he�s awfully close, and he�s an enormous mis-match against Leggo.�� After the first 2 series -- if not earlier
-- Arians should have a pretty good idea of how Leggo
is faring against BJ, and if it�s ugly, Arians simply has to abandon the
ground game or simply run wider than he�d prefer, and away from Clay
Matthews.� It is, however, enormously
difficult running wide with any kind of consistent production in today�s NFL.�� If Raji is blowing
up the middle on nearly every snap, there simply is no sense in trying to
�establish the run� for a paltry 1 yard per carry.��
- Jon (not Bon, of AC-DC fame) Scott at LT
remains a frightening proposition.�� I
snap out of a sound sleep each night, with visions of Clay Matthews whipping by
Scott and stripping Ben for an easy turnover.��
To this day, I don�t know why Flo Adams was
never considered to be moved from RT to LT.....perhaps in the offseason, someone from the sheeplike
Pgh. media will inquire.��
- The other tough assignment will be DE Cullen
Jenkins, who is very disruptive and capable.��
He won�t start, but he gave the Bears fits 2 weeks ago and can be a load
to handle.�� With Kemo always fond of
over-helping someone who doesn�t need help, while under-blocking a free
defender, I can see Jenkins and Matthews playing stunts all night long and
toying with Kemo and Scott.����
- The Packer secondary will be the best the
Stillers have faced all season.��
Woodson, Williams, Shields, and Collins have athleticism, ball-hawking,
coverage skills, and an adequate enough amount of physicality.� The Stillers counter with Wally, Ward,
Sanders, and Brown, along with TE Heath Miller.�� This is going to be one helluva
battle.�� Tramon
Williams is clearly the best CB on the Jackers, and
with Woodson being a bit long in the tooth, I adamantly want to see Wally or
Brown go deep on Woody.�� Williams will
probably be assigned every-play coverage on Wally, so Brown or even Sanders
must be sent downtown against Woody.��
Ward, meanwhile, must be used on the across-the-field clearing routes,
where Hines has often found soft, vacant area for huge chunks of yardage.�� For no apparent reason, this basic stable
has died on the vine this season, and needs to be resurrected on Sunday.����
- TE Heath Miller must get involved in the
passing game as a pass-catcher, not as a sidecar blocker.� Quick pop passes and taking advantage of the
Packers sub-par ability to cover the TE should be a staple this Sunday.� Of course, please -- no passes to Matthew
Spaeth.� We�re trying to win, not lose,
this game.��
- Get Mendy involved in checkdowns
and designed flares.� If Leggo is getting blistered by Raji,
the running game goes out the window.�
However, Mendy is a vastly under-utilized threat in the passing game,
with decent hands and good RAC ability.��
He must be used on checks and flares, which often are long handoffs and
are plays that get him away from the disruptive Raji
and out into open space.�
Stillers Defensive Keys:
No analyst in
The Stillers defense is essentially a paper tiger, the term the North
Vietnamese mockingly gave the
- Be prepared to get out of the base defense.� This is the largest key of this game.�� It�s implausible the Jackers
will run with any consistent success.��
However, the Stiller base defense is wholly incapable of defending
the Packer offense when it goes to 4-wide, which, if the Packers were smart,
would occur on their 1st snap of the game and continue until the final gun
sounded.�
������� Other
than true short-yardage plays, Dick LeBeau must be prepared to go with a
5 DB and even a 6 DB alignment, with Hampton and Farrior taking a seat (in the
6 DB) and Larry Timmons remaining on the field in heavy use throughout the game
as a combination rusher and cover �backer -- sometimes rushing, sometimes dropping
into coverage, and sometimes spying on the quick-footed Rodgers.� If Timmons sits in the 6 DB alignment while the much slower Farrior remains on the field
-- which has happened this season -- we�ve just screwed ourselves.�� Timmons is a true sideline-to-sideline �back
who truly can do it all -- rush, pursue, tackle, and cover.�� Quite clearly, Farrior is not.�
�
���� In the 5
or 6 DB alignment, Keisel and Hood will be the only true linemen on the field,
with some spelling from Hoke and to a lesser extent Nick Eason.��
- Avoid the Softee Defense.��� Aside from Dairy Queen, no one is a bigger
purveyor of Softee cream than Dick LeBeau, particularly if he has the slightest
lead in the 2nd half.�� Twice this
season, he allowed (hold your laughter) Mark Sanchez to run up and down the
field in the 2nd half like the Grambling marching band, pissing away the first
game and coming within a Dustin Keller dropped TD of pissing away the AFCC 2
weeks ago.�� You saw what Brady and Brees did against The Softee, knifing thru it like a hot
knife through butter while no facing no pressure, no harassment, and no pass
rush.��
����� Then
there was the Sup Bowl 2 years ago.��� Armed with a 13-point lead going into the
4Q, Dick played his usual Softee brand of defensive football, to the point of
lining his safeties up in NO MAN�s LAND, a full 22-yards
off the LOS, which got victimized on a short slant by Larry Fitz for the late
64-yard TD.���
������ Ya can�t go soft.�
- Limit the alley up RT for Rodgers to scramble.�� This is enormously important.�� Big LaMarr Woodley
is prone to doing the Jason Gildong Wide loop Rush, which generally loops waaay around the Horn of Africa.�� When this occurs, the fissure created for a
QB scramble is literally wide enough to accommodate a Cadillac Escalade moving sideways.�� Aside from Vince Young, Rodgers is by far
the best scrambler the Stillers have faced all season, and he cannot be given a
freebie 6-yard wide lane to saunter forward for easy, huge chunks of
yardage.�� In man coverage, the running
ability of Rodgers is as dangerous as smoking cigarettes next to a gas
pump.����
- As it is, Woodley should be able to feast on rookie
RT Bryan Bulaga, a stiff, lumbering Iowan who has
seen a vast variety of struggles this season.��
I say, should.� For far too many games in 2009 and 2010, Big LaMarr has been content to titty-fight
and nipple-tug with opposing blockers, offering no more disruption than a
55-gallon drum.� There is no doubt that
that Packers will shift pass protection towards Jamie Harrison, which will
enable Woodley to have near-exclusive solo blocking.�� In what should very well be his last
game as a Stiller, let�s hope Big LaMarr does
something more than paw and grope at Bulaga�s
boobs.��
- Limiting the Packer 4-some at WR.��� The Packer offense took a huge hit when TE Jermichael Finley was shelved for the season way back in
Oct.�� Otherwise, this would be a
fearsome five-some.��
������ It�s
still a quality corps of WRs, with good size and physicality.�� Jordy Nelson is a
big, strong, athletic body, and veteran greybeard Donald Driver has long been
very well-above average in strength, battling for position, reliability, and
playing physical.�� Greg Jennings is the
best all-around of the crew, having finished his 3rd consecutive season with
over 1,000 yard receiving while also averaging over 16 yards/catch in each of those
seasons.�� He�s the smallest of this
crew, but is shifty, smooth, and has good quicks.�� I assume Ike Taylor will cover him on every
play, and Ike will have to have his A game on
Sunday.� James Jones completes this WR
corps, and with 50 grabs this season for a 13.6 YPC, he�s no chopped
liver.� CB Anthony Madison will be called
upon to play the dime back role in obvious passing downs, and how well he plays
could well determine a win or a loss.��
- Get some impact out of Troy Pola.��� Whether by design or injury, Pola has been
marooned into a deep safety role in each of the 2 playoff games this season,
providing no more impact than a backup punter in either tilt.�� To be sure, his presence surely scared away
some stabs by Flacco and Sanchez, but when you have a dynamic, all-around
Tasmanian devil like Pola, ya don�t keep him constantly
dawdling around 18 yards off the LOS in deep security-blanket coverage.��
������ If Pola
is fully healthy, then he must be used ALL OVER the field, particularly up near
the LOS to bait Rodgers into seeing something that simply isn�t there.� Pola needs to be in the thick of the action,
punishing RBs and receivers and perhaps forcing a fumble or scooping a
deflected pass before it hits the turf.�
- No Gay on Nelson.��
Will Gay is somewhat adequate against average-sized receivers, but turns
into a frightened pansie against bigger receivers and
TEs.�� We don�t need Gay to embarrass
himself, and his team, by getting torched by Nelson.�� Let McFadden take Nelson, please.��
- Lack of speed at FS.� Rest assured,
Spec Teams
With the game being played indoors, the punters and
kickers should all be able to plant well and boot without fear of wind and
cold.��
I like what Tonio Brown has brought to the KO return
game, showing good patience, vision, and running to daylight.�� He�s also more dangerous than Randle El on
punt returns, although Tomlin always favors El on punts deep in Stiller territory.�
This is actually a farce, as it�s been El who has been more shaky, more
risk-taking, and more likely to commit the big boner, than Brown.��
PK Shaun Suisham has been
quietly effective on FGs.��
GB is odd in terms of punt returns, as only CB
Tramon Williams returned punts in the regular
season.�� (I found this such an oddity,
that I re-confirmed this stat on 2 other web sites besides NFL dot.�� Typically, these chores are parsed out to a
few players...)�� Brandon Underwood
returned 1 postseason punt for 0 yards.��
If Willie is assigned to cover Mike Wally all game long, this guy should
be fairly gassed on most 4th downs, unless an injury timeout or replay
challenge provides a breather.��
Stiller punter Jeremy Krapinos
remains my biggest fear on spec teams, with his penchant for shallow punts,
combined with his penchant for booming pooch punts into the EZ for harmless TBs.� On a planet of
at least 3,000 professional & collegiate soccer and rugby players, as well
as 200+ BCS & FCS college football teams, it astonishes me that there are
no better punters available than bags of shit like Paul Ernster
and Jeremy Krapinos.��
Intangibles
���� The Pack are new at the Sup Bowl stage, and it can certainly be a huge
adjustment for those players and coaches who�ve never been.�� It�s very typical for first-timers --
especially QBs -- to come out wobbly, feeble,
tentative, and meek.�� Witness
Sup Bowl 40, when both the Stillers and Hawks teetered about most of the game
like 7th graders attending their first school dance.�� In Sup Bowl 30, the Stillers, on BOTH sides
of the ball, came out timid, tip-toey, and mild
mannered.
����� Ditto for the AZ Cards 2 years ago.�� The Cards rushed 6 times in the 1st half and
gained all of 10 (TEN) yards, while playing a bland, ultra-conservative brand
of offensive football.� In the 2nd half,
the Cards abandoned the running game, rushing only when they needed to convert
short yardage or the rare draw.�� They
rushed 6 times for 23. ���More critically
(and productively), they passed the ball 25 times for 242 yards and two TDs.�� Quite clearly,
they should have come out passing the football EARLY, and much more OFTEN, in a
spread formation.� This was the
Cards' obvious STRENGTH against the obvious weakness of the Steelers.�
����� It wasn�t
until the 2nd half that the �96 Stillers and �09 Cards played with the kind of
vigor, gusto, and audacity that comprises winning football.�� Unfortunately for both those teams, they
waited too long and pissed away an entire 1st half in their losing
efforts.��
����� The
Packers have several assistant coaches with big-game experience as players, to
include Kevin Greene and Darren Perry.���
However, neither head coach Mike McCarthy, OC Joe Philbin,
nor DC Dom Capers (former
Synopsis:
The Packers
are slightly favored.� They�ve gotten hot
and taken on all comers, while the Stillers have unimpressively played only 1
good half in each of their 2 playoff games.��
The
Stillers, pound for pound, are deeper, tougher, more experienced, and are,
quite frankly, a better all-around team.�
However, because of the prolific and electric ability of the Packers�
offense, this is no gimme.� If the Stillers can address the 2 biggest
keys -- neutralizing Raji while on offense and
getting out of their base on defense against the 4-wides of Green Gay -- they
stand a solid chance of securing victory.��
I see this
game playing out as follows.�� The Jackers come out and play tepid, meek, and tentative.� �The
Stillers piss away some good opportunities, but take a 13-point lead into the
locker room.� In the 2nd half, Dick
LeBeau once again goes soft n� cheesy, while Rodgers and the Packers come out
with audacity, going 4-wide on every play while all but eschewing the run.��� Rodgers finds his rhythm and the carving
begins.�� This is a gut wrenching call,
but I cannot, in good conscience as a nationally respected sports analyst, ignore
the abundance of hard, factual trend analysis of Dick LeBeau�s total inability
to stop any offense with the slightest bit of competence, much less a top tier
QB like Rodgers.� This will be a
nip-and-tuck game, with the Pack absorbing an early
Stiller assault and then making the clutch plays to come from behind in the 2H
against a Softee Defense to take the Lombardi back to
Stay tuned
for in-depth Postgame coverage on Monday and the days following �the day
after�.�
(Still Mill
and Stillers.com -- when it comes to the analysis of the