2006 Draft, Small Board of Big Value:  

 

Rumor roils as Draft Weekend looms; the latest being that some unprecedented number of DB will be taken in R1.  As we’ve seen, recent first frame hauls at those spots (S and CB combined) have maxed out at (6).   Not this year say the wise guys, who also claim that as many as (5) RB may be taken in that opening frame.  If it plays like that, well, that’ll the biggest haul since 2000 when: Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Ron Dayne, Shaun Alexander and the great Trung Candidate checked through.     

 

LB figures as another big play, or so it’s said, and there you have it.  Over the years, DB, LB and even RB have been R2 values; their over-representation in this opening frame suggests that this 2006 class is, mainly, a R2 crop.  While this set does boast some elite prospects, especially in the Front 7, once past the top 12 overall (give or take), the rest are, mainly, R1 suspects.  Not bad players, R2 prospects are rarely bad players.  It’s just that most of those projected from, say 1.20 thru, say, 2.40 are, mainly, interchangeable.  Put it this way: Bobby Carpenter may become a fine pro but he’s not going to be Julian Peterson (3^rd LB: 1.16, 2000) or even Keith Bullock (5^th LB: 1.30, 2000).     

 

Off the Steelers’ list of invitees, DB (especially S) and RB are two primary targets.  A third is WR, and, it is worth noting a reciprocal relationship exists between the dearth of talent at the top of the WR set and that high R1 haul projected for each of the other three spots.  See: 

 

Table 1: 2004 year of the R1 WR v. 2006 projections. 

 

	Taken R1 2004	Projected R1 2006	Remarks
WR	7	2	Larry Fitzgerald has delivered and so has Lee Evans, to a lesser extent.  Michael Clayton had a good rook season but then disappeared.  The other four have done little.
LB	2	4	Vilma and DJ Williams compare with Sims, Greenway and Carpenter, if not Hawk.
DB	4	7-8	8 is probably the maximum; it is doubtful that either Youboty or Kelly Jennings will be taken R1
RB	3	4	Chris Perry was over-drafted R1; compare and contrast with the R1 suspects this year.
Totals	16	17-18	These totals get closer, once we balance those 4 QB drafted R1 in 2004 against 3 projected this time.

 

That’s not all bad.  If R1 WR has been a poor value, why draft a WR R1?  Then too, if the money boyz in League HQ have done everything possible to hobble defenders, then elite athleticism may no longer be a pre-requisite at the receiver positions.  R2 value?  Well, if all the prospects available at 1.32 figure as (merely) R2-worthy, remember that, until 2002, the 32^nd pick did come sometime in R2.  For instance 1989, when Carnell Lake was drafted 2.34, the 6^th pick in that frame.  Profiling the positions tabulated above, per those take rates studied previously: 

 

• It figures that the WR haul will start slow but pick up in R2.  While that take may lag a round through Day 1, by the close of R5, it will be at par.  Possession WRs figure to persist as a mid round value; quality among their analogue, receiving TE, will lead in the early going, probably through 2.64, but may tap out near the end of Day 1.  It’ll be all done by the PS R4 comp pick.    

 

• The DB takes figure to jump out but fall back fast, evening out by the close of R2, and remaining at par thru Day 1.  However, there will be some solid value through R4.  Quality ST/DB figure throughout Sunday’s rounds, especially including those WR with D-side experience, like Domenik Hixon and Ethan Kilmer.   

 

• RB will jump out too: even if five are taken in R1, by the close of Day 1, that set will be at par, with no more than 8-9 off the board. 

 

• LB:  As was true in 2000, LB will run out in R1.   As was true then too, the Day 1 pool will dry up.  On the plus side, there will be some good deep R3/R4 prospects, and some outstanding developmental types available well into R6, (if not through to the PS spot, 6.201).   

 

The PS FO sees need at: DB, receiver and RB, as do most fans.  There is a divergence of opinion at DE.  Many prognosticators have projected the Steelers taking a DE Day 1 but, if their invitee is list is a useful guide, the FO sees no such need.  It is worth noting that both Colbert and Cowher had some praise for 2005 R7 selection Shaun Nua, as tallied at their pre-draft presser.  That’s good news, I guess, but two items are worth noting:  

 

• Nua will be 25 in May; that is a bit overage, as developmental prospects go. 

 

• Nua isn’t at issue; even imagining he projects as a rotation DE, the fact remains that Rodney Bailey cannot play the run and Travis Kirschke cannot stay healthy.  If Nua figures in the Keisel mode, more or less, then the 2006 Steelers’ have just one reliable run down DE, aging Aaron Smith. 

 

3-4 DE are found in both the DE and DT prospect pools.  2006 DE talent runs to par, but not so for DT.  It figures that about (10) DE will be drafted Day 1, including the rapidly rising Jason Hatcher (per Gosselin: #9 among DE and #14 among all D-linemen).  Aside from Mario Williams, Hatcher and Julian Jenkins are it for 3-4 DE, within the DE prospect pool.  Some DT fit the bill too including: Rodrique Wright, Barry Cofield and, maybe Dusty Dvoracek.  However, none are found on Gosselin’s 100; in fact, with Claude Wroten’s prospects going up in smoke, that list includes only (6) DT.  If that proves out, it will be a Day 1 low for the position, a round behind, just as may be expected at WR. 

 

On the plus side, this does suggest considerable R4A value at both spots, DE and WR.  The same area will yield LB (as found among both DE and OLB prospects), safeties and possession WR.  Those are your mid-round value clusters: safety (including a couple CB conversions), complementary WR, 3-4 DE and 3-4 OLB.   

 

Rightside O-line maulers too, but nonesuch are found on the PS invitee list.  The top O-linemen invited in, Daryn Colledge and Charles Spencer are R2 leftside swingmen.  As noted, this augurs poorly for Trai Essex.  At that PC where Nua drew his praise, so too did Chris Kemoeatu.  However, the headmen, C&C, were (conspicuously?) silent on Essex, and Rian Wallace.  

 

If the Steelers are looking for leftside prospects, they need look no farther than R1.  It figures that Davin Joseph and Eric Winston will be on the board at 1.32.  Joseph is the best OG in this class; he has some versatility too, having played RG, LG and LT.  Winston projects at LT where, circa 2003, he looked like a top 10 pick.  Marcus McNeill may be there too, but he’s a medical question mark.  Of course, the same may said of Jason Allen, who, like Kendrell Bell, seems to be entering the pro ranks with arthritic shoulders. 

 

Then there’s LenDale White, the people’s choice and, if both Jim Wexall and John Clayton are correct, choice of the PS FO too.  White is no mystery medically (that hamstring will heal) but there must be questions surrounding his infamous pre-title bloat, not to mention the weight he put on between the Combine and his Pro Day.  Consequently, there’s no known 40 time attached to LenDale or, more indicative for RB, no time at 10. 

 

It is true that the PS drafted Heath Miller last year, though he hadn’t run at Indy either, or on his Pro Day.  However, the PS, like all teams, did have Junior Day results for Miller.  Not so for Lendale, who didn’t run last year, and didn’t run this.  White has the production, no doubt; he has been durable, no doubt, but, well, the same may have been once said of Buckeye Bob Ferguson (PS, class of 1962).   In short, this quandary remains: did White make the Trojans or did the Trojans make White?

 

We’ll see.  If White is on the board at 32, there is little doubt that the PS will take him.  In that case, they do figure to scramble for S in R2, just as was mocked here last week.  We know this because simultaneously with White’s descent (following his Pro Day debacle), the FO expanded their S search to include R2B/C prospects such as Danieal Manning and Ko Simpson.  At that time, Darnell Bing came in too, but he’s R3B at best, DND in the early going.  Anyway, the earlier DB candidates were: Donte Whitner, Jason Allen and Antonio Cromartie.  All are R1 guys now and, White or no-White, all are (likely) out of reach.  So:

 

Table 2:  Parsing the PS invitee list: 

 

	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5-6	R7-UDFA
RB	L. Maroney L. White J. Addai
DB	D. Whitner, S J. Allen, CB/S	D. Bullocks, S K. Simpson, S	D. Bing, S J. Alston, S		J. Lay, CB
WR	C. Jackson	D. Williams			J. Webb
O-line	N. Mangold	D. Colledge C. Spencer		W. Colon
LB	M. Lawson, OLB B. Carpenter, SILB			E. Henderson, OLB	B. Hawkins, OLB	Joey Lopes, LB/LS John Busing, WILB
Return talent	A. Cromartie, DB	M. Drew, RB D. Manning, DB	B. Williams, WR Willie Reid, WR	J. Bloom, WR W. Blackmon, DB L. Washington, RB	TJ Rushing, CB D. Hixon, WR
Other			B. Oshinowo, NT		D. Fells, TE	T. Sandidge, DT E. Kilmer, KC
Total	10	7	5	5	6	4

 

• As always, prospect name represents a high KEI guy.  Since we’ve been over it with most of these prospects, the following doesn’t describe their ability so much as purport their availability. 

 

• Of (10) R1 prospects listed, (3), at most, figure to reach 1.32.  Those are: one of the three RB, Carpenter and either Allen or Jackson.  The reciprocity noted earlier between WR and DB applies here.  Allen is ~ the 7^th DB, if (7) are taken, one of the top two WR may reach 32. 

 

• Of (7) R2 prospects listed, (3), at most figure to reach 2.64.  Those are: Williams, Spencer and Manning.  IMO, Williams is DND. Like Jason Allen, Spencer carries a medical risk.  Reportedly, reconstructive surgery on his left shoulder has limited his practice time in each of the past two campaigns. 

 

• Of (5) R3 prospects listed, (2) figure to be there.  If the Steelers are looking for a big S, Alston does fit the bill.  Reid has made a late run up the boards, closing at #100 on Gosselin’s list.  As #6 DT, Oshinowo doesn’t figure to be there, although his play grade does warrant that projection. 

 

Ok then. 

 

The SBBV is predicated on value cluster, KEI and a need assessment that stretches beyond replacement out to 2007 when, as noted in our Roster Survey, the Front 7 figures to turn over.  Therefore, it doesn’t look much like the PS FO board.  Fine.  Taking each round in turn:

 

• R1, harvest the fall:  waiting, the Steelers have gained both Roethlisberger and Miller.  They can do so again; however, the leading candidates, Allen or White, aren’t the only guys.  Generally, this is the year of the coverage safety (Huff, Whitner and, maybe, Allen) or coverage CB with safety size (Williams and Cromartie).  Of those, only Allen figures to approach the PS slot.  However, a pure coverage CB (Joseph, Hill and Marshall) may reach; any figure as R1 value.  The PS could solve their immediate FS problem, in some sets, by drafting a CB R1, with McFadden moving into a sky slot.  Then too, there’s that downstream snag at the spot: Ike’s extension.  On the flip side, the WR/DB reciprocity noted previously suggests that, if (8) DBs are selected, then a top WR will fall.   In sum: stay the course: DB or WR R1.  Apropos of nuthin’, the wildcard is not RB; it is O-line, with Joseph or Winston.  

 

• R2: traditionally, a value at TE.  A zone breaker ala Klopfenstein figures to be a better get than any WR likely to be available.  It’s doubtful a quality DB will be there, although Manning would quality.  However, S is a deep R3 value with Jon Alston, Roman Harper and Anthony Smith likely to be available.  

 

• R3/4:  aside from those R3 safeties noted above, value cluster figures at LB (to include DE and OLB prospects).  3-4 DE figure too: (DE and DT prospects).  Presently, the Steelers have four picks in this range; they should come away with quality at both DE and OLB.  Along with DE, S and OLB, possession WR and TE/H-backs look to be R4 value.   Depending on how it’s running, these spots (and prospects noted below) may swap around.  Regardless, if the PS FO plays it right, they could come away with (4) Day 1 values in this section.  There’s your draft.  .

 

• R5/7: rich in special teams smalls to include athletic LB, package S and return WR that also feature some coverage skills.  IOL is a traditional value in this area, and there does figure to be some prospects.  Again, depending on how it’s running, those IOL and ST smalls tabulated below may swap around some.  Kilmer, Wusu and Morris are most likely to move up; Hixon most likely to move down.  TE is usually a value; however, this class looks good at the top but not the bottom. 

 

Table 3:  SBBV

 

	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5-6	R7-UDFA
Value cluster	CB	TE	LB Safety	DE WR		O-line
Prospects in cluster	Richard Marshall Tye Hill	J. Klopfenstein A. Fasano	Gocong, OLB Anderson, OLB Wilkinson, OLB	Move for: Hatcher, Cofield or Wright R4 comp: Jenkins	Hamilton, FS TJ Rushing, CB D. Hixon, WR/KR A. Bethea, DB C. Finnegan, DB/KR	C. Morris, OC Mark LeVoir, OT T. Palmer, OG C. Myrick, IOL Brad Butler, OT D. Penn, OT
			Jon Alston Roman Harper Anthony Smith	Hass, Avant Baskett, Austin Bloom, Reid (KR/PR)
Others	Holmes, WR Jackson, WR Carpenter, SILB Move back Allen (m) Maroney (m) Ryans, WILB Winston, LT Joseph, IOL	G. Jennings, WR D. Bullocks, S D. Manning, DB C. Spencer, OL	Pittman, NCB Scheffler, TE Thomas, TE	Ninkovich, OLB Andre Hall, RB Zemaitis, DB Mills, FB Cook, OL Whimper, OT McQuistan, OT E. Smith, S	Dvoracek, DE LaCasse, OLB Parham, SILB Guillory, LB Robinson, RB J. Martin, OT C. Kuper, IOL	Bouknight, WR J. Madsen, WR AJ Harris, RB Ahmad Hall, FB John Chick, OLB Kilmer, KC/WR Dixon, LB Timi Wusu, LB