2006 Draft, Small Board of Big Value:
Rumor roils as Draft Weekend looms; the latest being that
some unprecedented number of DB will be taken in R1. As we’ve seen, recent first frame hauls at those spots (S and CB
combined) have maxed out at (6). Not
this year say the wise guys, who also claim that as many as (5) RB may be taken
in that opening frame. If it plays like
that, well, that’ll the biggest haul since 2000 when: Jamal Lewis, Thomas
Jones, Ron Dayne, Shaun Alexander and the great Trung Candidate checked
through.
LB
figures as another big play, or so it’s said, and there you have it. Over the years, DB, LB and even RB have been
R2 values; their over-representation in this opening frame suggests that this
2006 class is, mainly, a R2 crop. While
this set does boast some elite prospects, especially in the Front 7, once past
the top 12 overall (give or take), the rest are, mainly, R1 suspects. Not bad players, R2 prospects are rarely bad
players. It’s just that most of those
projected from, say 1.20 thru, say, 2.40 are, mainly, interchangeable. Put it this way: Bobby Carpenter may become
a fine pro but he’s not going to be Julian Peterson (3rd LB: 1.16,
2000) or even Keith Bullock (5th LB: 1.30, 2000).
Off
the Steelers’ list of invitees, DB (especially S) and RB are two primary
targets. A third is WR, and, it is
worth noting a reciprocal relationship exists between the dearth of talent at
the top of the WR set and that high R1 haul projected for each of the other
three spots. See:
Table
1: 2004 year of the R1 WR v. 2006 projections.
|
|
Taken
R1
2004
|
Projected
R1
2006
|
Remarks
|
WR
|
7
|
2
|
Larry
Fitzgerald has delivered and so has Lee Evans, to a lesser extent. Michael Clayton had a good rook season but
then disappeared. The other four have
done little.
|
|
LB
|
2
|
4
|
Vilma
and DJ |