Draft 2003, D-back Prospects v1.1:

 

This piece is a companion to the article, Draft 2003, D-backs v 1.0, published on-site a couple weeks ago.� I had intended to move to other positions but, given the saliency of the secondary follies here last year, can�t let go of this issue just yet.� The impetus for this piece follows from the TFY listing that Haven posted on the Message Board a few days ago; I am adding a couple more projections and, out of the sum, will compile an aggregate list.�

 

Rankings from TFY, GBN (Great Blue North) and the Huddle Report are shown in the table below.� The number under each prospect references the comprehensive, regardless-of-position ranking of that player, per that report.� In most cases, measurables for these players were displayed in the article referenced above; those won�t be repeated here.� As stated then, draftbook.com was the reference cited for all measurables; as stated then, it is absolutely true that different stats for any given player can be found elsewhere; as stated then, the Combine shall conform all.

 

The Raw Data:

 

D-back rank	TFY	GBN	Huddle
1	Terrance Newman, CB 7	Newman 5	Newman 5
2	Marcus Trufant, CB 10	Trufant 14	Trufant 11
3	Andre Woolfolk, CB 18	Woolfolk 17	Woolfolk 12
4	Mike Doss, SS 35	Weathersby 32	Doss 24
5	Ken Hamlin, S 36	Doss 36	Weathersby 46
6	Eugene Wilson, CB 37	Mathis 47	Hamlin 52
7	Rashon Mathis, CB/FS 38	Wilson 49	Mathis 53
8	Julian Battle, S 40	Hamlin 51	Wilson 57
9	Rod Babers, CB 54	Babers 53	Battle 59
10	Dennis Weathersby, CB/FS 59	Polamula 61	Polamula 67
11	Troy Polamula, SS 60	Cox 66	Barnett 74
12	Torrie Cox, CB 72	Garrett 70	Groce 79
13	Kevin Garrett, CB 77	Manning 76	Davis 80
14	Todd Johnson, S 86	Davis 80	Holt 90
15	Sammy Davis, CB 90	Battle 83	Garrett 92
16	Nick Barnett, SS 94	Holt 87	Walton 93
17	Donald Strickland, CB 98	Strickland 93	Florence 103
18	Anthony Floyd, S 100	Taylor 95	Scott 109
19	Terence Holt, S 108	Samuel 99	Johnson 117
20	Rushon Jones, CB 113	Barnett 100	Sanders 131
21	Antoine Sanders, S 115	Florence 103	Manning 134
22	Asante Samuel, CB 117	Groce 105	Charles Drake, S 136
23	Byron Scott, S 129	Jones 107	Gerard Sapp, S 142
24	Ricky Manning, CB 136	Elpheage 109	Elpheage 148
25	Charles Tillman, FS/CB 138	Walton 111	Burns, 152
26	Drayton Florence, CB 148	Floyd 113	Babers, 153
27	Ivan Taylor, CB 157	Scott 115	Lehan, 157
28	Willie Pile, SS 160	Banks 116	Tillman 178
29	DeJuan Groce, CB 162	Tillman 124	Strickland 191
30	Jason Goss, CB 163	Sanders 134	Pile 192
31	Shane Walton, CB 165	Pile 138	June 194
32	Nmadi Asomugha, FS/CB 172	Goss 152	Cox 200
33	Lyneris Elpheage, CB/KR 180	Asomugha 170	Nickey 202
34	Xxx Evans, FS 186	Evans 186	Banks 206
35	Korey Banks, CB 190	June 182	Floyd 208
36		Nickey 184	Thomas Wright, S 211
Not listed	Jesse Sowells, Donnie Nickey, Cato June, Thomas Wright, Charles Drake, Gerard Sapp, Frank Walker	Sowells, Wright, Drake, Sapp, Walker	Sowells, Taylor, Asomugha   Goss 224, Samuel 240, Jones 246

�

 

Observations:

 

• The top three does not vary.

 

• Each of the following five are somewhere in every top ten: Doss, Weathersby, Mathis, Hamlin and Wilson. Excluding Mathis, these players may be characterized as big school producers with dubious measurables.� In contrast, Mathis may be characterized as a high measurables player who has produced very well, but against dubious competition.

 

• The following players each made (2) appearances in the top ten:� Babers, Battle and Polamula.� Polamula was 11,10 and 10; Battles 8, 15 and 9; Babers 9, 9 and 26.

 

• �Babers may be characterized as a big school, small CB.� Others of the type, to include Cox, Groce, Manning, Strickland and Walton are all over these boards, from mid-first day to late second.� The same is true for Elpheage and Samuel, small CB from smaller schools.��

 

• Sammy Davis and Kevin Garrett are clustered in the range between 11-15 for all D-backs which, give or take, is bottom of the 2^nd round territory.� Nick Barnett is 16, 20 and 11; that is roundly, in the same area.

 

• While Jesse Sowells does not now appear on any board, I�m willing to bet that he gets drafted.� Frank Walker and Jeremy Shabazz, neither currently appearing, (probably) will too.

 

The Raw Refined, or compiled anyway:

 

Every player rankings is compiled and ordered below.� A simple division of the sum of the three boards derives these rankings with rounding to the nearest whole number.� This averaging leads to some ties; that is absurd in fact but useful here in establishing a prospect range. Players who appear on fewer than (3) boards shall be listed in parentheses but placed wherever their mark may be.

 

�

D-back Rank	Player	Remarks
1	Terrence Newman, CB 6	Somewhat overage at 25.
2	Marcus Trufant, CB 12
3	Andre Woolfolk, CB 17	Low production against high-level competition.
4	Mike Doss, SS 32	Would give the Steelers nothing that they don�t already possess.� Chris Hope is bigger and faster
5T	Dennis Weathersby, CB/FS 46	Would give the Steelers nothing that they don�t already possess; tackling issue suggests this man may give them less.� Reminds me of Mike Rumph and that�s not good.
5T	Rashon Mathis, FS/CB 46	Size/speed prospect.� Could be an impact performer but could be Willie Middlebrooks.
7	Ken Hamlin, S 47	Speed is a question mark; listed as 4.4 or 4.64 and that is a huge difference.
8	Eugene Wilson, CB 48	Approaching DND status IMO.
9	Julian Battle, S 61	As above, great physical skills but may have an FA-level brain.
10	Troy Polamula, SS 63	Lowly status despite high productivity and measurables may signify that the SS position is on the verge of extinction in the pass-first game today.
11	Kevin Garrett, CB 80	The poor man�s Terence Newman?
12	Sammy Davis, CB 83	Combine speed will tell; if a sub 4.5 guy could be a legit RFR type at #27.� If not, not.
13	Rod Babers, CB 87	Size will tell, listed at 5-8 to 5-11.
14	Nick Barnett, SS 90	Speed will tell, listed at 4.33-4.70.
15	Terence Holt, S 95	Productive on defense and ST; speed poor.
16	(Todd Johnson), S 102, two boards.	Chris Hope clone.�
17	Torrie Cox, CB 113	Big school, small CB.
18T	Ricky Manning, CB 115	Big school, small CB.� In this group, I like Manning.
18T	DeJuan Groce, CB 115	Big school, small CB.
20T	Drayton Florence, CB 118	Small school, big CB.� Good speed.� If required to pick between Florence and Scott, I�d take the speed.
20T	Byron Scott, S 118	Big school, slow safety.
22	Shane Walton, CB 123	Big school, small CB.
23	(Ivan Taylor), CB 126	Small school, big CB. Good speed.
24	Antoine Sanders, S 127	Will drop, is overage and looked lost at Senior Bowl.
25	Donald Strickland, CB 128	Big school, small CB.
26	(Charles Drake), S 136, one board only	Big school, slow safety.
27	(Gerard Sapp), S 142, one board only	Big school, slow safety.
28	Lyneris Elpheage, CB/KR 146	Return ability makes this man a superb value at this spot.�
29	Charles Tillman, FS/CB 147	Could rise with a really solid Combine.� Seems to have measurables similar to Weathersby.
30	Asante Samuel, CB 154	Small school, small CB.
31	Rushon Jones, CB 155	Big CB but had little production at Vanderbilt.
32	Willie Pile, S 164	Big school, slow safety.
33	Korey Banks, CB 170
34	(Nmadi Asomugha), FS/CB 171, two boards	Measurables similar to Weathersby too and had better production in the same conference.
35	Jason Goss, CB 180	Productive at TCU, slow.
36	(Evans), FS 180
37	(Cato June), S 188, two boards	Big school, slow safety.
38	(Donnie Nickey), S 193, two boards.	Big school, slow safety.
39	(Thomas Wright), S 201, one board.	Big school, slow safety.� Listed in one board only but for some reason, is at the top of the All-Pro Scouting FS list too.�
NL	Jesse Sowells, CB/S	Best value as a CB, has Hope-like measurables as a safety.
NL	Jeremy Shabazz, S	Also, Hope-like; is not projected as a CB prospect.
NL	Frank Walker, SS	Tuskegee SS.

 

 

On the chalk:

 

Let�s assume that the compilation above represents the order of things to come.� It is understood that the Combine and workouts may scramble that board but, for now, it may be regarded as the distilled wisdom of War Rooms throughout the league.�

 

In the Brief History� we saw that both �reach� and �value� as a function of overall player rankings are projection-based terms and that the difference between prospects dwindles as the draft progresses.� This was evident from the 2000-02 listing of D-backs selected where teams frequently �reached� (20) or so spots to get their man.� In the closing table there, a range per secondary ranking was established; this positional ranking analysis will be repeated in the first column in the following table with the players in the table above inserted.�� Note: in this exercise, Mathis is considered a safety, Weathersby a CB; players that I like are shown in boldface.

 

Spot	Best case	Worst case	Remarks	O-side skill players who may be BPA:
Gone before the Steelers reach the podium   Top (3) CB. 0-2 Safeties	Newman Trufant Woolfolk	Newman Trufant Woolfolk Doss Mathis
@27   4th to 6th DB available.   4th CB 1st to 3rd Safety	Mathis or Weathersby as 4th CB.       Doss as 1st safety	Weathersby as 4th CB.         Hamlin or Battle as 3rd safety.	Weathersby figures as a mild RFR reach but I really don�t like this player.� I do like Mathis as a reach but, on the chalk, Polamula is a reach too far.��	QB Kyle Boller RB Larry Johnson TE Jason Whitten       BPA appears to be O-side.
@59   11th to 13th DB available.   5th to 8th CB 6th to 7th safety	Wilson, Garrett, Davis and Babers are 5-8 at the CB position.� All figure to be gone by the mid-3rd.     Barnett and Holt are 6-7 at the safety position.	If Babers is the top CB remaining, Barnett figures to be on the board.�     If Holt is the top safety remaining, Davis and/or Garrett figure to be on the board	Battles and Polamula average at 61 and 63 overall.� Either would be a solid �value� pick @59 but as the 4th and 5th safeties both figure to be off the board.	QB Chris Simms (?) RB Musa Smith TE Teyo Jackson TE Dallas Clark         BAP appears to be D-side.
@ 92   18th to 22nd DB available   11th to 15th CB 7th to 9th safety	11-15 CB include (4) big school, small CB and (2) small school, big CB.� However, all are way down in the value rankings @ 113 to 126.   Terence Holt may be a value here.��	Tillman may move up; he, Taylor or Florence may be very good future value picks here but, on the current chalk, this is way too early.	The overall rankings point to safety with Barnett, Holt or Johnson.� However, as was the case in the previous round, positional analysis suggests Barnett and probably Holt will be gone	RB: Chris Brown, the next Bam Morris.
Summary	Considering draft only:   Mathis available in the 1st   Polamula available in the 2nd   Tillman, Elpheage, Asomugha or Sowells late	Considering draft only:   Pass at DB in the 1st.   One of Garrett, Davis or Barnett available in the 2nd.   Holt is a value but slow, the mid-4th developmental DB are not much better than the late-4th developmental DB.� Pass at DB in the 3rd.   Tillman, Elpheage, Asomugha or Sowells late	D-backs most likely to help immediately:   Polamula Davis Garrett   This strongly suggests an FA DB.   D-backs most likely to develop as impact players:   Mathis Barnett   This strongly suggests an FA D-back, maybe two.	True best case?   FA D-back 1st round O-side 2nd round DB 3rd round whatever.

 

Observations:

 

• At 27, no D-back with speed is a value with regard to any overall rankings.� However, Mathis is no more a reach than is Weathersby.

 

• At 59, there is projected value at safety with Battle or Polamula; however, positional analysis suggests that, in fact, both will be absent.� On the plus side, Garrett, Davis or Barnett figure to be on the board; those CB would be only mildly greater reaches here than either Mathis or Weathersby in the first.��

 

• At 92, there is projected value at safety with Barnett, Holt or Johnson.� Of those, only Barnett has real speed and, by the positional ranking schema, figures to be long gone.��� The �reach� to CB Florence, Manning, etc. is equal to that in both the first and second rounds; +/- that is (20) spots in every case.

 

Summary:

 

• The PS figure to be �reaching� at CB in every first day round.

 

• The �value� pick by overall rankings is at safety in every round; however, positional analysis suggests that this �value� won�t be there.

 

Top Ten D-backs, Phantom favorites predicated on the speed factors compiled elsewhere:

 

1. Trufant
2. Newman
3. Polamula: can�t ignore that production and speed.
4. Mathis: great speed and size, high production against bad competition.
5. Woolfolk: the anti-Mathis, low production against good competition.
6. Davis: could be a RFR type pick; if <4.5 40 would move past Woolfolk; if >4.6 would drop out.
7. Barnett: superb size/speed, or so it is said.
8. Garrett: superb speed, will tackle and could help against small WR.
9. Tillman: high production at small school, good character guy.
10. �Asomugha: better production in Pac 10 than Weathersby, 4.5 40 at 6-2, or so it is said.

 

Others worth watching:

 

1. Florence:� has all the measurables.
2. Sowells:� will get ranked.
3. Elpheage: tiny but good cover guy and great KR.
4. Taylor:� academic issues are a problem.

 

Reasonable inferences:

 

Off the favorites list above (which features speed) and presuming no D-back FA while ignoring �reach� or �value� as essentially meaningless terms, the Colbert Paradigm of big school-good production gives:

 

1^st round:� Troy Polamula.

2^nd round:� Sammy Davis

 

Assume that the pass-first mode endemic last year will cause CB (or Cover 3 FS) to rise and SS to drop, then get ahead of the speed/size curve and draft:

 

����������� 1^st round:� Rashon Mathis, or with a <4.5 40, either Sammy Davis or (God help us) Dennis Weathersby.

����������� 2^nd round:� Troy Polamula with Barnett and an acceptable alternative.

 

IMO, the sum of Mathis and Polamula or Barnett would be sufficient to offset any BPA differential favoring the O-side in round 1.

 

Projections by others:

 

GBN posted their most recent draft on 6 February.� In that 2-round effort, they projected Larry Johnson and Sammy Davis as the Steeler picks at #27 and #59.� Unsurprisingly, their draft projection followed their prospect list, as displayed in this article in the top table.� As for the D-backs:

 

1.5: ���� Terrence Newman, CB.

1.8: ���� Marcus Trufant, CB.

1.18: �� Andre Woolfolk, CB.

1.24:��� Mike Doss, SS.

1.31:��� Rashon Mathis, FS/CB.� Note (3) CB and (1) safety were gone at #27; this is within positional analysis.

2.34:��� Weathersby, CB.

2.46:��� Hamlin, S.

2.56:��� Babers, CB.

2.57:��� Cox, CB.

2.58:��� Florence, CB.

2.59:��� Davis, CB. Note: 11^th D-back and 8^th CB, as within positional analysis.

 

Of note: �Neither Battle nor Polamula appear; additionally, Barnett and Garrett remain on the board. �Additionally, Teyo Johnson was on the board (#61 to Philadelphia).

 

Ourlads posted their most recent draft on 9 February.� In that 2-round effort, they projected Julian Battle and Teyo Johnson as the Steeler picks at #27 and #59.� As for the D-backs:

 

1.7: ���� Newman, CB

1.12:��� Trufant, CB.

1.26:��� Polamula, S.

1.27:��� Battle, S.� 4^th D-back selected at #27; however, (2) CB is a bit low.� Also, Battle is a bad reach here IMO.

2.33:��� Florence, CB.�

2.34: �� Doss, S.

2.40:��� Woolfolk, S.� So listed in this projection.

2.56:��� Sanders, S.� IMO, absurdly high.

2.58: �� Davis, CB.� Just ahead of the PS

 

Of note:� 10^th D-back on the board at #59; this is a little low.� Mathis, and the (3) big school CB who appeared on the GBN projection were absent from Ourlads as was Ken Hamlin.�

 

Mathis, Polamula and Battle are generally regarded as top 10 D-backs but each was shut out from (1) projection; oddly, each was a 1^st round pick in the other projection.

 

Value holders, found in both and in the same spot:� Newman, Trufant and Davis as shown.� Other players who made both lists were Doss, Woolfolk and Florence.�

 

BPA:

 

If you knew somehow that the Steelers could get both LJ and Teyo, would you pass on D-backs through two rounds?