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NFL Draft Offensive Value Board, v3.0 (final)

April 22, 2013 by Steel Haven

+Others includes all combine invites (at a minimum)
#All measurements from combine unless otherwise specified (height, weight, 40 time, bench press reps)

  Round 1 Round 1-2 Round 2 Round 3
QB Geno Smith, West Virginia Matt Barkley, USC
EJ Manuel, Florida St
Ryan Nassib, Syracuse
Mike Glennon, North Carolina St Tyler Wilson, Arkansas
*Tyler Bray, Tennessee
None of the top prospects are on par with Luck or RGIII. Opinions on Smith (6'2.3", 218, 4.59#) diverge wildly. He is reportedly no longer guaranteed to be the first QB off the board, especially if the Bills are making the pick. Barkley (6'3.4", 227) declined an invitation to attend the draft and should never have gone back to school. He was derailed by the USC collapse plus a shoulder injury. The wildly inconsistent Manuel (6'4.5", 237, 4.65) seems like he's been around forever having won four bowl games at FSU, the first two subbing for the oft injured Christian Ponder. He possesses the physical skills, work ethic and leadership ability to excel at the next level. He did accept an invitation to the first day of the draft. To call Nassib (6'2.2", 227, 5.06) a game manager is unfair. He has better than advertized arm strength and does a good job of throwing on the move despite not being overly athletic. Like Manuel decision making is his biggest issue despite his intelligence and feel for the game. He didn’t look good at the Senior Bowl after significantly out playing Smith in the Pinstripe Bowl. Nassib has been strongly tied to the Bills since they hired his college coach Marrone and the uncertainty of this QB class could mean he is taken much earlier than expected. The boom or bust Glennon (6'7.1", 225, 4.94) is a tall, strong armed project that was the reason North Carolina State forced Russell Wilson to transfer for his final season. The Petrino fiasco helped derail Wilson (6'2.1", 215, 4.95) in 2012. Bray (6'6.1", 232, 5.05) is young and has skills to mold; alas he is reportedly not the brightest bulb in the pack. The stock of Jones (6'4.1", 225, 5.11) has been in constant decline. Gray (6'3.2", 4.73, 15 bpr) worked out as a QB at the combine despite moving to WR during the 2012 season. Klein (6'4.7", 226, 4.78) wants to stay at QB which is unlikely.

Gradkowski was signed as the primary backup. A rookie to groom seems to be a much better use of a roster spot than keeping camp arm Wilson around for the season. The Steelers are said to be intrigued by the raw Bray believing he has the best QB skills in this draft. Would they spend a third rounder for a developmental QB? Renfree (6'3.1", 219) was tutored by QB guru Cutcliffe and has been unable to work out due to a torn pectoral muscle suffered in the Belk Bowl. The fact that he led Duke to a bowl is pretty impressive in itself. The Steelers reportedly showed an interest in Vandenberg (6'2.6", 226, 4.92) at the combine. He would be worth a flier as a 7th rounder or undrafted free agent.
RB   *Eddie Lacy, Alabama Jonathan Franklin, UCLA
Montee Ball, Wisconsin
*Giovani Bernard, North Carolina
*Le'Veon Bell, Michigan St
Christine Michael, Texas A & M
Andre Ellington, Clemson
Lacy (5’11”, 231, 4.57) had a lackluster pro day where he reportedly failed to finish his individual workout due to a lack of conditioning. The fear is that his production was more a product of his dominant offensive line. Franklin (5’10”, 205, 4.49, 18 bpr) and Ball (5’10.4”, 214, 4.66, 15 bpr) are compact, agile runners with attacking styles. Franklin was a four year starter that got better every season. Ball set the NCAA record for career rushing TDs. He resurrected his draft stock by running a 4.49 40 and cutting almost .3 seconds off his 20 yard short shuttle at his pro day. He was reportedly suffering from a sinus infection at the combine. Both are accomplished in blitz pickup which is unusual for rookies. Bernard (5’8.3”, 202, 4.53, 19 bpr) carried the load in both a pro and after a coaching change spread offense. Despite his size he may be more than just a change of pace back. Bell (6’1.3”, 230, 4.60, 24 bpr) was a more one-dimensional feature back, really the only offensive weapon for the Spartans last season. He does have the physical skills to develop as a blocker and receiver. Michael (5’10”, 220, 4.54, 27 bpr) opened eyes at the combine after spending the season in new coach Sumlin's doghouse. Ellington (5’9.2”, 199. 4.61) profiles as a third down back, running a respectable 4.51 at his pro day. Combine superstar Davis (5’11.3”, 227, 4.37, 31 bpr) came out early to escape the post-Petrino morass despite only gaining 377 yards and 3.4 ypc in 2012 while recovering from a 2011 ankle injury. He’s a one-dimensional straight line runner which limits his upside.

Mendenhall was allowed to walk, joining former OC Arians in the desert. Rainey was a failed experiment. Counting on Redman and Dwyer for another season is a painful proposition. The Steelers spent a lot of time with Bell at his pro day and ran him through a personal workout. Lacy, Franklin and Michael visited Pittsburgh. There is a strong chance a back will be taken in the first three rounds.
WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia (RB)
*Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee
*DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson
*Keenan Allen, California
*Robert Woods, USC
*Justin Hunter, Tennessee
Quinton Patton, Louisiana Tech
Markus Wheaton, Oregon St
Terrance Williams, Baylor
*Stedman Bailey, West Virginia
Marquise Goodwin, Texas
Ryan Swope, Texas A & M
*Da'Rick Rogers, Tennessee Tech
Aaron Dobson, Marshall
Austin (5’8.4”, 174, 4.34, 14 bpr) is really more of a playmaker than true receiver. He will be a matchup nightmare, but his size means his touches will need to be limited. Patterson (6’1.7”, 216, 4.42) has the most upside as a pure receiver despite also being a versatile playmaker. He scored TDs last season via kickoff return, punt return, receiving and rushing. The fear is that it will take him time to pick up a pro offense. Hopkins (6’1.7”, 214, 4.57, 15 bpr) and Allen (6’2”, 206) are more pro ready despite not possessing blazing speed. Allen has been held back by a bad knee in the post season and wasn’t helped by a 4.7 40 at his pro day. Everyone knows he plays faster when healthy. Woods (6’0.3”, 201, 4.51, 14 bpr) came out early after taking a step back as a junior from his breakout true sophomore campaign. A polished route runner with soft hands, Woods lacks elite size and speed. Hunter (6’4”, 196, 4.44) appears fully recovered from a torn ACL in 2011. He is a tall, long athlete that has suffered through bouts of inconsistency. Patton (6’0”, 204, 4.53, 8 bpr) and Wheaton (5’11”, 189, 4.45, 20 bpr) were both ultra-productive in part due to scheme. Patton is a more traditional receiver with excellent quickness and long arms. Wheaton has more straight line speed. Williams (6’2”, 208, 4.51, 11 bpr) is a smooth, graceful receiver that needs to be more focused and physical. Bailey (5’10.2”, 193, 4.52, 11 bpr) is less explosive yet more reliable and productive than his more ballyhooed teammate Austin. Track athlete Goodwin (5’8.7”, 183, 4.27, 13 bpr) is an undersized weapon that will likely be limited to the slot. Swope (6’0.1”, 205, 4.34, 16 bpr) while bigger than Goodwin and not quite as limited physically has trouble beating press coverage and is at his best exploiting mismatches from the slot. The ultra-talented Rogers (6’2.4”, 217, 4.52, 10 bpr) dominated as expected against a lower level of competition after transferring from Tennessee due to suspension. Dobson (6’2.6”, 210) ran a 4.42 40 at his pro day after being unable to run at the combine because of a hamstring injury. Despite the straight line speed and high level of production he lacks elite athleticism and upside.

The loss of Wallace means at least one receiver must be added to the mix, matching the Patriots offer to Sanders makes it less of an immediate priority. GM Colbert has had success drafting receivers in later rounds selecting Wallace, Sanders and Antonio Brown all in the 3rd round or later. Boyce (5’11.1”, 206, 4.38, 22 bpr), King (6’0.2”, 189, 4.47, 11 bpr) and Justin Brown (6’3.1”, 207, 4.59, all from pro day) were brought to Pittsburgh for pre-draft visits. Boyce’s combine performance was even more impressive given that he unknowingly had a broken small toe. He has since had surgery.
TE *Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame   *Zach Ertz, Stanford
*Gavin Escobar, San Diego St
Vance McDonald, Rice
Travis Kelce, Cincinnati
*Jordan Reed, Florida
Eifert (6’5.4”, 195, 4.68, 22 bpr) has WR skills in a TE body. He has the build to develop as a blocker. Ertz (6’5”, 249, 4.76, 24 bpr) and Escobar (6’5.6”, 254, 4.84) are big pass catchers that weren't called on to block at all. They are one-dimensional move TEs best suited to line up in the slot. Both will find ways to get open and catch the ball. Escobar helped himself at his pro day despite only doing 12 bench press reps by running a 4.7 40. McDonald (6’4.1”, 267, 4.69, 31 bpr) also wasn't really asked to block much, but has the frame and strength to eventually develop. Kelce (6’4.7”, 255) is the most well rounder prospect and has good bloodlines, his brother Jason having started at C for the Eagles. Unfortunately he is said to be a train wreck off the field having been suspended for the 2010 season. He ran a 4.64 at a private workout, but was unable to do position drills as he recovers from surgery for a sports hernia. Reed (6’2.4”, 236, 4.72, 16 bpr) has minimal experience having played QB until 2 years ago. He was slower and less athletic than expected in the pre-draft process. Early entrants Sims (6’4.7”, 262, 4.75, 22 bpr) and Toilolo (6’8.1”, 260, 4.86, 17 bpr) are among the better blockers in this class almost by default. Neither should have probably have come out early, although Toilolo lacks the physical skills to have really raise his draft stock all that much. Sims is a talented underachiever with all around skills that was suspended in 2010 for his involvement in a computer theft. Toilolo knows how to make use of his size both as a receiver and blocker, yet he lacks speed and explosive power.

Miller's severe knee injury created a black hole at this position until his return. Resigning Spaeth and Johnson to pair with Paulsen doesn't help all that much. The decision to waive Saunders and keep Pope last season looks even more shortsighted in retrospect. The problem is that with many other needs this position may not be able to be addressed. The Steelers front office has shown no discernible interest in TEs this offseason. Sims and Toilolo might be third day possibilities. Kiper mocked Eifert at one point (without an ESPN insider account I have no idea if this is still the case). I would be fine with the pick, but strongly doubt it happens. My mocking of Fauria (6’7.3”, 259, 17 bpr) to the Steelers in the seventh round was just a stab in the dark.
OT *Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M
Eric Fisher, Central Mich
Lane Johnson, Oklahoma
*DJ Fluker, Alabama (OG)
*Menelik Watson, Florida St *Justin Pugh, Syracuse (OG)
Terron Armstead, AR, Pine Bluff
*David Bakhtiari, Colorado (OG)
Dallas Thomas, Tennessee (OG)
Outland trophy winner Joeckel (6’6”, 306, 5.30, 27 bpr) started at LT since his true freshman season. He was especially impressive last year after moving to the SEC protecting the blind side of freshman Heisman winner Manziel. The tall, agile Fisher (6’7.2”, 306, 5.05, 27 bpr) showed he could play with the big boys dominating at the Senior Bowl and combine. Johnson (6’6”, 303, 4.72, 28 bpr) is an athletic former TE and DE with the length and long arms teams covet. Fluker (6’4.5, 339, 5.31, 21 bpr) is a mountain of a man that can step in immediately on the right side or even move inside to guard. England native Watson (6’5.1”, 310, 5.29) didn’t test quite as well athletically in the post season as some expected. There is still a belief he could move to the left side at the next level after playing the right side in college. He’s played only a single season of division I football and just 2 seasons total of the sport. Short arms may force Pugh (6’4.4”, 304, 5.24) inside. He has the feet to play outside on the left. The athletically gifted Armstead (6’4.6”, 306, 4.71, 31 bpr) was a top recruit that went to a smaller school because they allowed him to compete in track along with football. He made a mark at the East-West Shrine Game and as a late injury replacement at the Senior Bowl before blowing up the combine. Surprise early entrant Bakhtiari (6’4.2”, 299, 5.09, 28 bpr) flew under the radar in a bad program despite being a 3 year starter. Thomas (6’5.4”, 306) is sort of in limbo after moving inside his senior season and being unable to work out due to a shoulder injury.

The top 3 will be long gone by the time the Steelers pick. Fluker would fill a major need for depth on the line. He could move inside to guard freeing up Foster to be the primary backup and giving Beechum more time to develop. Fluker could then kick outside in the event of an injury to Gilbert or Adams. Currently Foster would need to move outside in that scenario with Beechum moving into the lineup. Not optimal. In any case at least 2 offensive linemen need to be selected as depth even if the position is not addressed early unless the plan is to bring back Starks and/or Legursky.
OG Chance Warmack, Alabama
Jonathon Cooper, North Carolina (C)
  Kyle Long, Oregon (OT)
Larry Warford, Kentucky
Brian Winters, Kent St (OT)
Warmack (6’2”, 317, 5.49) and Cooper (6’2.1”, 311, 5.07, 35 bpr) are both thought of as top 15 if not top 10 prospects. How unusual would it be for them to go that high? No guard has been picked in single digits since 1986. Only 5 guards have gone in the top 17 picks since 1995. Warmack is a physically dominant road grader, Cooper more athletic. Long (6’6.1”, 313, 4.94) is the son of Howie and brother of Chris. He started only 4 games in his single season at Oregon after originally going to Florida St to play baseball and then transferring to the JUCO ranks starting out on the defensive line. His bloodlines and athleticism are intriguing despite the lack of experience. Warford (6’3”, 332, 5.58 28 bpr) played 47 college games, starting his last 37. Despite a lack of top athleticism he is a powerful, dominant interior presence. Winters (6’3.5”, 320) played in all 49 games of his college career at tackle, actually staying on the field in 2011 after suffering a dislocated shoulder in the 3rd game. Lack of speed and top agility makes a move inside likely for him.

Warmack and/or Cooper could well be the top players on the Steelers draft board if available at pick 17. Would they take a guard in the first round of the draft in consecutive years? The reasoning is similar to taking Fluker even though Warmack and Cooper wouldn’t provide as much flexibility. A later pick needs to be used on an interior lineman if Warmack and Cooper are not available or bypassed. Offensive line coach Bicknell went to Kent St for their pro day to check out Winters. Embernate (6’3.6”, 304, 5.18, 21 bpr, all from pro day) was brought in for a visit.
C     *Travis Frederick, Wisconsin (OG) Brian Schwenke, California (OG)
Barrett Jones, Alabama (OG/RT)
The technically proficient Frederick (6’3.5”, 312, 5.58 21 bpr) is better on the field than in workouts. He moved to center only last year and can play anywhere in the interior line. The athletic Schwenke (6’3”, 314, 4.99, 31 bpr) also moved to center for his final season and will need to continue working on improving his shot gun snaps. The versatile Jones (6’4.4”, 306) started at LT, guard and center. A foot injury meant he couldn’t work out which will undoubtedly hurt his stock.

The line needs depth as repeatedly mentioned above. The versatility of Jones would make him very appealing and his injury could make him available later than originally expected. While the selection of a pure center is unlikely, almost all of the draftable prospects listed as centers also have experience at guard.
  Round 4-5 Round 6-7 Others+
QB Matt Scott, Arizona
Landry Jones, Oklahoma
Zac Dysert, Miami, OH
MarQueis Gray, Minnesota (WR/TE)
Sean Renfree, Duke
Jeff Tuel, Washington St
Jordan Rodgers, Vanderbilt
Collin Klein, Kansas St (FB/TE)
James Vandenberg, Iowa
Brad Sorenson, Southern Utah
Colby Cameron, La Tech
Alex Carder, Western Mich
Ryan Griffin, Tulane
Dayne Crist, Kansas
Ryan Katz, San Diego St
*Kyle Padron, Eastern Wash
Seth Doege, Texas Tech
Ryan Aplin, Arkansas St
Nathan Stanley, Southeastern La
Matt McGloin, Penn St
Tino Sunseri, Pitt
RB *Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina
*Joseph Randle, Oklahoma St
Stepfan Taylor, Stanford
Mike Gillislee, Florida
Kerwynn Williams, Utah St
Kenjon Barner, Oregon
*Knile Davis, Arkansas
*Jawan Jamison, Rutgers
*Michael Ford, LSU
*Cierre Wood, Notre Dame
Miguel Maysonet, Stony Brook, NY
Zac Stacy, Vanderbilt
Onterio McCalebb, Auburn (WR)
Theo Riddick, Notre Dame (WR)
Ray Graham, Pitt
Robbie Rouse, Fresno St
Rex Burkhead, Nebraska
*Spencer Ware, LSU
Latavius Murray, Central Fla
Dennis Johnson, Arkansas
Montel Harris, Temple
George Winn, Cincinnati
Mike James, Miami, Fla
*Stefphon Jefferson, Nevada
DJ Harper, Boise St
CJ Anderson, California
Chris Thompson, Florida St
Matthew Tucker, TCU
Washaun Ealey, Jacksonville St
Curtis McNeal, USC
Michael Hill, MO Western St
Cameron Marshall, Arizona St
Orwin Smith, Georgia Tech
FB Kyle Juszczyk, Harvard (TE) Zach Line, SMU
Lonnie Pryor, Florida St
Tommy Bohanon, Wake Forest
Braden Wilson, Kansas St
Zach Boren, Ohio St
Kyler Reed, Nebraska (TE)
Michael Zordich, Penn St (RB)
Eric Stevens, California
Taimi Tutogi, Arizona
A dying position, no FB being taken before the 6th round wouldn’t be a surprise. The Steelers don't seem to have any interest in having a pure lead blocker on the roster preferring an H-back hybrid or just a pure TE when lining up a blocker in the backfield. In that respect Senior Bowl breakout Juszczyk (6'1", 248, 4.77, 24 bpr, all from pro day) could receive some consideration.
WR *Kenny Stills, Oklahoma
Chris Harper, Kansas St
Cobi Hamilton, Arkansas
*Josh Boyce, TCU
Tavarres King, Georgia
Denard Robinson, Michigan (RB)
Aaron Mellette, Elon
Corey Fuller, Va Tech
*Ace Sanders, South Carolina
Conner Vernon, Duke
Rodney Smith, Florida St
Jasper Collins, Mount Union
Alec Lemon, Syracuse
Marcus Davis, Va Tech
Mark Harrison, Rutgers
Justin Brown, Oklahoma
*Marquess Wilson, Washington St
Tyrone Goard, Eastern Kentucky
*Brandon Kaufman, Eastern Wash
TJ Moe, Missouri
Marlon Brown, Georgia
Ryan Spadola, Lehigh
Kenbrell Thompkins, Cincinnati
Lanear Sampson, Baylor
Darius Johnson, SMU
Alan Bonner, Jacksonville St
Uzoma Nwachukwu, Texas A&M
Zach Rogers, Tennessee
DeVonte Christopher, Utah
Dan Buckner, Arizona
Emory Blake, Auburn
Chad Bumphis, Mississippi St
Reggie Dunn, Utah
Charles Johnson - Grand Valley St
Drew Terrell, Standord
Russell Shepard, LSU
Jason Thompson - New Haven
TE *Dion Sims, Michigan St
Nick Kasa, Colorado
Chris Gragg, Arkansas
*Levine Toilolo, Stanford
Ryan Otten, San Jose St
Joseph Fauria, UCLA
Mychal Rivera, Tennessee
Jake Stoneburner, Ohio St
Lucas Reed, New Mexico
Matt Furstenburg, Maryland
Michael Williams, Alabama
DC Jefferson, Rutgers
Justice Cunningham, South Carolina
Philip Lutzenkirchen, Auburn
Jack Doyle, Western Kentucky
Zach Sudfeld, Nevada
Luke Wilson, Rice
Mike Shanahan, Pittsburgh (WR)
Chris Pantale, Boston College
Josh Hill, Idaho St
Ryan Griffin, UConn
TJ Knowles, Sacramento St
Ben Cotton, Nebraska
Kevin Finney, Richmond
OT Brennan Williams, North Carolina
Oday Aboushi, Virginia (OG)
Jordan Mills, La Tech (OG)
*Chris Faulk, LSU
Reid Fragel, Ohio St
Ricky Wagner, Wisconsin
Luke Marquardt, Azusa Pacific
Xavier Nixon, Florida
Emmett Cleary, Boston College
Vinston Painter, Va Tech
Braden Brown, BYU
Manase Foketi, West Texas A&M
Jason Weaver, Southern Miss
Tanner Hawkinson, Kansas
Rogers Gaines, Tennessee St
John Wetzel, Boston College
Oscar Johnson, La Tech
Nick Becton, Va Tech
Jordan Devey, Memphis
LaAdrian Waddle, Texas Tech
Jeff Nady, Nevada
Carter Bykowski, Iowa St
Elvis Fisher, Missouri
Ryan Schraeder, Valdosta St
Terren Jones, Alabama St
RJ Dill, Rutgers
Patrick Ward, Northwestern
OG David Quessenberry, San Jose St (T/C)
JC Tretter, Cornell (C)
*Alvin Bailey, Arkansas (OT)
Hugh Thornton, Illinois
Edmund Kugbila, Valdosta St
Jeff Baca, UCLA (C)
Garrett Gilkey, Chadron St (OT)
Earl Watford, James Madison
Eric Herman, Ohio
Nik Embernate, San Diego St
Ryan Jensen, Colorado St, Pueblo
Lamar Mady, Youngstown St (C)
Chris Barker, Nevada
Mark Jackson, Glenville St
Jamaal Johnson-Webb, Alabama A&M
Stephane Milhim, UMass (OT)
Josh Kline, Kent St
Zach Allen, North Carolina St
Omoregie Uzzi, Ga Tech
Travis Bond, North Carolina
Sam Brenner, Utah
Braden Hansen, BYU (C)
Blaize Foltz, TCU
Chris Jacobson, Pitt
John Sullen, Auburn
Josh Dworaczyk, LSU
Patrick Omameh, Michigan
C Khaled Holmes, USC
Braxston Cave, Notre Dame
PJ Lonergan, LSU
Matt Stankiewitch, Penn St
Dalton Freeman, Clemson
TJ Johnson, South Carolina
Joe Madsen, West Va
Mario Benavides, Louisville
Graham Pocic, Illinois
James Ferentz, Iowa
Sam Schwartzstein, Stanford
Eric Kush, California, PA
Nick Carlson, Wyoming
Ryan Turnley, Pitt
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