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Best Bet Plus Two (week 5)

October 07, 2009 by Steel Haven

Argh.... Another best bet down the shitter. This one really pisses me off because although the Bengals couldn't cover they still won the game to stay ahead of the Steelers in the standings and Palmer made it through the day unscathed unlike the QBs of my previous two best bet losers. Going on the road after a big divisional win is always a warning sign. I thought the Bengals could overcome it against another divisional foe playing as poorly as the Browns that had already seemed to give up on their new coach. Wrong. Damn the Bungals.

My other bets were basically a couple of laughers. The Giants did sort of let the Chiefs hang around in the kind of game the Steelers lost in the second and third weeks. Settling for field goals a few times when they should have scored touchdowns and even missing one of those attempts. Of course the Chiefs are not remotely as competative as the Bears or Bengals and their 14 unanswered points to end the game still only got them within 11. My final pick was not as close thanks to the complete ineptitude of a Raiders team that actually somehow managed to go on the road and beat the Chiefs earlier in the season. Anytime Russell drops back to pass it pretty much results in hysterical laughter from anyone that isn't a Raiders fan. Count me mercifully among that group. The Texans defense had been shredded for 436 yards per game in the first three weeks. The Raiders gained 165.

I continue to be enticed much more by road favorites than I probably should be by week five. I have three more this week after splitting on a pair last week. I guess my week one sweep with road favorites remains fresh in my brain. Just as a quick aside, I have pretty much decided to leave the Steelers out of this because for some reason I don't want my fandom to get in the way of my faux betting. Figure that one out. But I really like the Steelers giving 10.5 to the Lions this week. They would have challenged for my best bet and definitely been part of my top three had I not consciously decided to not consider them.

home team in bold

Best Bet

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) over Tennessee Titans

What the hell happened to the Titans? Seriously. They have already lost as many games this year as they lost in the regular season and playoffs combined last year. They have dropped from seventh to 22nd in total defense and from ninth to tied for last in passing defense. The three defensive backs they have that made the Pro Bowl last season have morphed into the Three Stooges. The Colts of course lead the league in total offense and passing. Manning has an opportunity to become the first player in history to throw for over 300 yards in the first five games to start a season. Plus to add just a touch more incentive the Titans ended the Colts streak of five straight divisional championships last year.


New York Jets (-1.5) over Miami Dolphins

Lost in the loss last week to the Saints is that the Jets defense actually contained Drew Brees and his flying circus. Brees was held to 190 yards passing. The problem was the implosion of rookie QB Dirty Sanchez. Rookie QBs will have those kind of days. Sanchez has already shown the ability to shake off his mistakes. My vision.... Chad Henne is no Drew Brees. The Dolphins will try to run like last week in their first victory of the season. Rex Ryan will sell out his defense to stop the run. The one dimensional Dolphins will be in big trouble. This is a bitter divisional rivalry game. Bill Parcells is sure to have something up his sleeve against a team he once coached. I just don't see the Dolphins succeeding unless they can force Sanchez into a second straight day to forget.

Minnesota Vikings (-9.5) over St. Louis Rams

Danger, Will Robinson! Danger! - Robot from Lost in Space

I am falling into the same trap as last week, recognize it and still can't help myself. At least I won't make this one my best bet. The Vikings are coming off an emotional home win over bitter divisional rivals Green Bay. On Monday night no less. Brett Favre smote his nemesis Packers GM Ted Thompson. They travel to St. Louis on a short work week to play a relatively meaningless game they should win easily against a Rams team that has given up an unbelievable 84 more points than they have scored in four games. You can't make this shit up. Oh mother of all things holy. Why can't I just stay the hell away?

Man is the only kind of varmint that sets his own trap, baits it, then steps in it. - John Steinbeck

Last week

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) over Cleveland Browns LOSS

New York Giants (-8.5) over Kansas City Chiefs WIN

Houston Texans (-9) over Oakland Raiders WIN

Record to date: 8-4   Best bets: 1-3
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