Stillers Postmortem -- reviewing the pregame analyses
In wake of the disastrous loss to NE, it's worthwhile to spend some time reviewing my two pre-game analyses: one the primer on how to beat the Stillers in the playoffs, and the other the Stiller-Pats Pregame Outlook, in order to see what went wrong in this latest playoff fiasco.
These pre-game analyses, of course, drew loads of outrage from Stiller fans all over the country, as shown in my email in-box that had no less than 90 such messages related to one or both of these articles. So, too, was our message board flooded with similar anger and outrage.
Obviously, my pre-game prediction was wrong. I'd predicted a 23-19 Patriot victory, which was obviously a ways off the final score of 24-17. I'll readily admit that I botched that. I was also wrong that the Pats would come from behind to win. But remember, the prediction wasn�t made with the simple generics that most predictions are made of. There was none of this "NE is a team of destiny" crappola, nor any of this "I just have a feeling that�" cock & bull. The prediction wasn't made on an unsupported whim.��� Both of these analyses were built from over 16 weeks of extensive tape study -- far more than any media source anywhere -- and then supported by a detailed breakdown of how to beat the Stillers, along with the detailed match-ups against the Pats.
To begin with, let's examine excerpts from the Stiller-Pats Pregame Outlook:
"The Pats will probably try to mimic the success the Ravens had in the 3rd quarter, when they increased their dosage of blitzing and bottled up the Stiller offense rather handily. Because of age and some undersized players, this Patriot front 7 cannot expect to go toe-to-toe with the Stillers rugged O-line, so they'll need to pull a variety of run-blitzes -- something the Patriots first perfected against the Stillers back in the '97 season -- if they have any hope of avoiding a steamrolling. The right side of the Stillers O-line remains the question mark, and the Pats should try to exploit that on Sunday." As expected, the Pats refused to be bludgeoned with foolhardy "mano-a-mano" schemes. The Pats run-blitzed the piss out of Mularkey's crew, and shot every gap they could find. The Pats seized the initiative and put the Stiller offense on its heels. RT Marvel Smith got manhandled, bullied, and abused the entire game.
"Because the Pats like to drop as many as 7 men into coverage and mix in much more "cover 2" instead of straight-up "man for man", Stew will see a lot more complexities than he saw last week, or at any point in the season except for perhaps the Tampa game. The Pats are also more likely to maintain discipline in their rushing lanes, making Stew's designed keepers and improvised scrambles a bit more difficult to accomplish." The Pats defensive scheme clearly took Stewart out of his comfort zone, as he resumed his poor mechanics and lollipop throws that we hadn't seen in months. Through the use of a spy and very disciplined, alert work by their D-line, the Pats negated Stew's legs, except for the ad hoc 34-yard scramble.
"Jerome Bettis will be back in the lineup, and will get a majority of the workload. As I listed in my primer, I�ve got my concerns with Bettis� return. Any time a star player returns to the lineup, there�s a tendency for his teammates to ease up with the theory of, "Well, he�s back, and if we did so well without him, now we can really do well without half trying." The result is often a bad case of stand-arounditis, which happened in the blowout playoff loss to New England 5 years ago. I�m also concerned with Bettis� conditioning and quickness. Bettis, hardly a workout warrior, has had the long layoff, along with appearing on the Letterman Show and other extravaganzas. The Pats don't have the brawn or skill of the Ravens defense, so they may throw all caution to the wind and try to give Bettis problems with a variety of run-blitz schemes. The related concern would then be the overuse of Bettis on the Whaleshit Counter, long a favorite staple of the Steeler offense. The play takes too long to develop and Bettis�s shoulders are parallel -- not perpendicular -- to the LOS. Bettis needs to be used more often in quick hitting plays between the tackles, where he can hit the hole quickly & squarely and barge for extra yardage against an undersized Pats front 7. Amoz Zereoue had a strong effort last week, and hopefully will get more work than only the occasional SG draw or 3rd-and-9 screen pass." Sure enough, the entire O-Line stood around in a funk most of the game. On top of that, Doughboy Bettis was clearly not anywhere close to being in game shape. The ridiculous fables bandied about by the Pgh. media, which kept proclaiming how fit the "255 pound Bettis" was during this long layoff, turned out to be bald-faced lies. Bettis had carried the ball only 3 times over the course of two different series, yet was over on the sideline huffing and puffing as though he'd just completed the Bataan Death March.
The real proof in the pudding was this excellent camera angle of The Doughboy as he walked off the field after being engulfed on a toss sweep:
Look at that bloated belly as it hangs over his belt, just like a portly plumber. That's what you call a gut. A large, fat gut. If Bettis is 255 pounds, then Tony Siragusa is 290. Clearly, Bettis' already shaky conditioning and weight management had regressed during the layoff, and it was quite evident in today's game, in which Bettis tiptoed more than Fred Flintstone at a bowling alley. Bettis ran a couple slow-as-whaleshit counters, along with 3 toss sweeps that either lost yardage or gained nothing. If Bettis was going to be used, he should have been used on north-south plays in which his shoulders were perpendicular to the LOS. It's a shame that Amoz Zereoue was relegated to spot duty, until the Pats had the 21-3 lead midway thru the 3Q. As I'd alluded to, AZ should have been incorporated much more, much earlier. And due to the layoff, Bettis' head wasn't all the way into the game, either. Below is a routine ground play, in which Bettis goes out of his way to avoid his lead blocker, Dan Kreider (gold arrow), and avoids a massive hole in the process. Bettis (blue arrow) gained 4 yards, but could have gained 3 times that amount had he followed his lead blocker and ran to daylight.
As I'd said in a Loose Slag article back on January 11th, " Let�s see�.before his injury, Jerome Bettis weighed at least 270. Quibble and dicker if you like about the 270, but when you see the guy -- both in-person and on TV -- standing next to various-sized players, you get a pretty good idea of what he weighs. I�ve read the glad-handing stories in the local media about "how much Bettis has done to stay in shape during this long layoff. Bottom line is that Bettis hasn�t played in over 5 weeks, and it says here that the odds are pretty low that The Tubby Tailback is anywhere near the shape he was in prior to the injury. "The thing I fear most about Bettis�s return -- besides the potential for a bloated belly and poor conditioning -- is the propensity for the rest of the team to sit back and say, "Our savior and redeemer Bettis is back, and we are saved!" If this kind of over-reliance occurs, as it did going into the January 1997 playoff game against the Patriots, what ensues will be a severe can o� whipass issued to the Stillers."
"The Stillers have allowed an inordinate number of punts and placekicks to be blocked, and Josh Miller loves verifying Tagliabue's signature every time he punts the ball, so don't rush to the fridge during any Stiller punt or placekick. Advantage: Pats, by a large margin." �'Nuf said here, as the Pats took 1 punt back for a TD and blocked a FG and returned it for a TD.
"Lewis is prone to go vanilla at times, and is also prone to take the heat off the opposing QB and play a "sit back" defense." Lewis played so much vanilla, that Breyer's has already contacted him to be the spokesman for their new line of vanilla ice cream.
"Mularkey needs to keep Kordell on the move, and unlike last week more than one rollout should be called. Mularkey also needs to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers -- Ward, AZ, Plex, Edwards, and Shaw. The Pats defense is the classic rubber-band defense -- bend but don't break -- but Mularkey can't be content and be lulled into only getting a few first downs and punting with regularity." Mularkey called two, and only two, rollouts, which produced completions of 12 and 9 yards. Mularkey failed to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers anywhere near enough, even going so far as using Hines Ward to passblock as a RB in the SGF formation on two different occasions.
"Belichick's forte is defense, and if
there's anyone out there who can slow down this Stillers offense, its Bill
Belichick."� Indeed, Belichick
slowed down the Stillers offense to whaleshit proportions.� Defense is Belichick's forte; Cowher has no
idea what a forte is, much less actually having one.��
"This is the 4th time Cowher has hosted an AFC Championship game, and all 3 previous ones were unmitigated disasters. Even the one AFC title game that he won -- over Indy in Jan. '96 -- was an entirely sloppy effort against one of the truly weakest teams to ever advance to a conference title game. Cowher's overt imbecility late in the first half last week -- in which he squandered field position on his 41-yard line with 44 seconds remaining without even trying to move into nearby FG position -- is precisely the kind of timid, "lets keep it close" mentality that led to all previous three slop fests in the conference championship." Today's slop was d�j� vu all over again for Bill Cowshit. Different year, same shit.
"This has all the markings of another whipping by the Stillers. The only matchup the Pats have an advantage is on spec teams. Otherwise, the Stillers personnel have either a decent advantage, or in some cases, a dominant advantage, over the Patsies. On paper, this has the look and feel of a thorough 30-10 thrashing by the home-field Stillers. Problem is, the game isn't played on paper. On paper, the home-field Stillers had enormous advantages in virtually every position over both the Chargers in '95 and Colts in '96, yet lost one game and barely won the other. Cowher has always been good at whipping his team into an angry frenzy against hated division rivals, but against teams that don't bring that familiarity and hatred, the frenzy is often minimal. After some struggle and fight from the Pats early on, the Stillers should handily win this game. But I cannot, in good conscience as a sports writer, ignore the time-honored preparation, leadership, and in-game decision-making deficiencies of a Bill Cowher coached playoff team. The Pats will keep this game close enough to remain in striking distance, and pull out a heroic 4th quarter comeback to advance to the Super Bowl with a win over the Stillers, 23-19." Once again, a Cowher coached team with massive advantages in virtually every matchup, plus home-field advantage, manages to snatch defeat from victory with classic underachievement. This, from the same coach, in the week leading up to the game in freezing Cincinnati, insisted on having the team practice in the comfy indoors the entire week Just as I explicitly noted, I could not ignore the time-honored preparation, leadership, and in-game decision-making deficiencies of a Bill Cowher coached playoff team. It's a shame that so many Stiller fans couldn't do the same. After all, I'm not very smart, nor am I a bright guy. I just happen to observe things.
From the primer on how to beat the Stillers in the playoffs:
"Take advantage of special teams. Bill Cowher, despite being a former special teams player and coach, has rarely ever had good, sound special teams. �.the blocking has allowed multiple blocked punts, as well as one blocked FG and one blocked PAT. Because everything is magnified in the playoffs, special teams really are a full one-third of the game, and a solid opponent will take advantage of the weak Stillers special teams." Bingo. 1 blocked FG, 1 PR for a TD. Cowher's special teams 0, Pats spec teams 14.
"Take advantage of Cowher�s lack of strategy and tactics. Just as Cowher has shown the acute inability to transition from the preseason to the regular season, so, too, has he shown similar problems going from the regular season to the playoffs. No coach has consistently done less, with more, in the playoffs than Billy Cowher. In the playoffs, underdog teams often throw caution to the wind and take chances that, in the regular season, they might not otherwise take. Meanwhile, Cowher has always been content to "dance with the girl who brung ya", and make no significant adjustments and make no significant preparations for what the opponent might to do upset the favored team. What happens is similar to the short-sighted French overconfidence in their Maginot Line prior to the outset of World War II, which the German blitzkrieg strategy rendered useless with incredible ease. Cowher has always treated the playoffs with the bland mindset of, "Well, if it worked in the regular season, it should work in the playoffs." Problem is, the opponent in the playoffs usually feels like a cornered dog, and consequently changes his tactics during the week of preparation in order to at least go down with all guns blazing. Furthermore, playoff teams often home in on one or two perceived cracks and go out of their way to exploit those cracks. For those who think Cowher is a capable playoff coach, consider this: Cowher has a long history of playoff failures and struggles, which are contained below at the bottom of this article." Sure enough, Cowher's team came into the game with a game-plan that was so flawed and vomit-inducing that is made the US Navy's plan of defense for Pearl Harbor in '41 look like pure genius in comparison. Cowher expected mano-a-mano defense from the Pats, and was totally befuddled when Belichick failed to comply.
"In addition to #2 above, take advantage of in-game adjustments. Despite the fables bandied about in the media, Cowher�s staff has perennially -- to include this season -- struggled to counter the in-game adjustments of its opponents. A team does "X", Cowher fails to respond with "Y". Case in point, and take your pick of the 25 times this has happened in the past 6 years: an opponent has a white-hot receiver who is continually getting open, getting the ball thrown to him, and catching everything in sight -- and Cowher will sit ossified on the sideline, and refuse to make any adjustments whatsoever. Or, Cowher�s team will do "X", the opponent will then shut it down with "Y", and Cowher will either fail, or refuse, to counter it with "Z"." Cowher was totally stupefied when Bettis was running with all the speed of a glacier, and insisted on keeping the Tubbo in the game. Cowher had no counter for the Pats pass protection, nor their aggressive gap shooting.
"Exploit the right side of the Stiller offensive line. Starting guard Rich Tylski is, by far, the weakest of the starters. Marvel Smith, while much improved from his woeful play during preseason, still has had problems over at RT. Smith still lunges -- leading with his helmet -- at rushers from time to time, and the result has been miserable whiffs. Opponents would be wise to earn a "draw" on the left side of the Stiller O-line and whip up on the weaker right side, even if it means swapping some defenders from their usual positions to do so." New England whipped ass on the right side of the Stiller O-line, yet the Stillers insisted on running right anyway.
" Run blitz inside the tackles. The Pats perfected this in 1997, and the Ravens mimicked it starting in �98. This has given the Stiller offense fits when they�ve relied on the whaleshit running plays that call for Bettis to tiptoe wide with shoulders parallel to the LOS. The insistence on lots of cutesy pulling, instead of straight-ahead drive blocking, will allow opposing blitzers to shoot through the open gaps and engulf Bettis as well as harass Stewart." This is precisely what Belichick did today, and it totally engulfed the Stiller running game and took the entire Stiller offense out of its rhythm.
"Assign a spy. The smart playoff opponent will assign either a tough, quick DB, or more likely a quick, savvy LB to "spy" on the offense. The spy gives the Stillers fits, because that one spy stops 3 of the Stillers favorite plays:
- the QB draw
- the SG draw
- the screen pass"
The Pats had trouble with AZ on screens and dumps, but otherwise their spy plan worked to perfection. Stew was bottled on designed QB keepers and draws, and had only 1 good scramble.
"Exploit the two primary weaknesses of the Stiller defense. Two glaring weakness exist: the pass coverage of SS Lee Flowers, and the OLB play of Jason Gildon. Flowers, although a good run stuffer and vicious hitter, is the weakest coverage man among the Stillers top 6 DBs (to include Logan and Townsend). He�s been exploited in the passing game numerous times this season, and opponents would be foolish to not exploit him. Gildon has 12 sacks, mostly from coverage sacks, gift sacks, unblocked opportunities, or being left all alone with only a RB. Gildon is by far the weakest of the 4 starting LBs, and is flaccid and meek against the run. Moreover, his pass coverage is, at best, mediocre. Opponents shouldn�t hesitate to run at, and around, Big Jason." The Pats easily picked on Flowers while isolated in coverage on their big-two WRs, and they also abused Gildon in similar matchups. Gildon provided some heat on occasion on the QB, but Antwain Smith gained most of his yardage running right at, or around, the big Pro Bowl OLB.
"9. Get a lead. How often has a Cowher playoff team come from behind in the 2nd half? Once -- versus the lowly Dolts in the Jan/ �96 AFC title game. Take the lead, and you take a lot of wind from Cowher�s sail. " Perhaps the understatement of the year -- " Take the lead, and you take a lot of wind from Cowher�s sail." ALL of the wind in Cowher's sail went right out of the Big Ketchup Bottle once the Pats got the lead.
Summary:
Almost every pre-game article out there predicted a severe Stiller whipping, supported with little more than foolhardy bravado and rah-rah cheerleading tinted by gold-colored eyeglasses. Some articles pointed to flimsy &/or irrational causal relationships -- such as the fact that the Pats celebrated so lustily last week, while the Stillers were far more matter-of-fact after their win -- as some sort of sure-fire indication that the Stillers were a shoe-in to win this game. On the other hand, the primer on how to beat the Stillers, as well as the pregame outlook, systematically broke down -- complete with in depth analysis and synthesis (see Bloom's Taxonomy) -- on how the Pats would win this game. Before anyone suggests (which has already happened via email) that Belichick somehow got a copy of these reports, and that I therefore helped sink this Stillers team -- spare me the Disneyland stories. Belichick knew full well how to beat this team, and he didn't need my reports to do so. Bottom line: free of charge, the breakdown on exactly what was going to occur, and why, was right here for fans to peruse, and hopefully we can all learn from this embarrassing loss and apply it to good use during next year's campaign.
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Cowher�s playoff history:
�93 - Despite securing the top seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs, Cowher�s team gets thoroughly whipped and embarrassed by the Bills, 24-3.
�94 - The Stillers visited a very ordinary Chiefs team, and lost a very winnable game because of two chronic problems: dropped passes, including one by Jeff Graham that could have sealed the game, and special teams fiasco caused by a blocked punt. On the game-tying do or die TD by Kansas City, the Stillers played vanilla, rushing just 4 men and allowing Joe Montana 6 seconds to scan the entire field.
�95 - Cowher finally got his first playoff win by beating Cleveland, a team they�d already waltzed through twice during the regular season. Cowher then allowed his players to conduct Super Bowl video practice in the week leading up to the AFC title game in Pittsburgh. As a 10-point favorite, the Stillers lost in one of the most shameful, pitiful playoff losses in franchise history to one of the weakest teams to ever make it to the Super Bowl.
�96 - The Stillers easily disposed of an aging, decrepit Bills team in their first game, 40-21. Then, thanks to a KC loss, the Stillers managed to get another home-field AFC title game, this time against a very weak, ordinary Colts team that was ravaged by injury. Not only was star RB Marshall Faulk out, but backup Zack Crockett was also hobbled from the KC game, meaning the running chores belonged to Lamont Warren. Despite overwhelming talent at virtually every position on the football field, the Stillers were behind late in the game, and had CB Willie Williams not abandoned his assignment and chased down Warren from behind on a late 3rd & 1, the Colts would have salted away nearly all of the scant remaining time. O�Donell then hit Hastings on a huge 4th and 3, and with less than a minute left, Bam crashed in for the winning score. Still, the Colts came back against a softee defense, and had a legit shot at a Hail Mary that was just barely incomplete in the EZ. In a sheer fit of luck and fortune, the Stillers avoided what would have been their most shameful playoff loss, even worse than the previous year. In the Super Bowl, Cowher arrived on gameday to a soggy, sloppy, mucky field in Tempe, and nevertheless insisted on starting & playing scatback Erric Pegram, the same back who struggled mightily in the win on a soggy Cleveland field back in week 12, for the first 20-some minutes. On top of that, the entire Stiller defense came out in a fog, totally befuddled and bewildered by the size and brawn of the Cowboy offensive line. By the time Bam Morris finally entered the game, and by the time the defense adjusted to the Cowboy offense, Dallas had a comfy lead they should have never been given.
�97 - Stillers beat a woeful, injury ravaged Colts team 42-14. The Stillers then faced a ordinary New England team in the fog of Boston, and in a complete fog, got thoroughly whipped and embarrassed, 28-3. The ineptitude of the team�s woeful preparation was never more evident than the Stillers� first play from scrimmage -- a play that is practiced at least 15 times leading up to the game --- which was flagged for having 2 men in motion at the same time.
�98 - At home, the Stillers faced a weak, injury ravaged Patriots team, so beat up that not only was Curtis Martin on the shelf, but his backup was as well, meaning little-used 3rd string RB Derrick Cullors had to start at RB. Despite the home field advantage and superior talent all over the field, the only TD the Stillers could muster all day was a fluke 40-yard scamper by Stewart, made possible only because a NE LB pulled away in fear of a personal foul flag as Stew was tight-roping the sideline. The Stillers eked out a totally uninspiring win, 7-6. They then faced a Denver team that they�d beaten the month prior, but in the rematch Shanahan�s adjustments allowed the Broncs to pull off yet another playoff upset of the Stillers at home. The coaching imbecility of Bill Cowher was never more evident than the key 3rd & 7 play that occurred right after the lengthy 2-minute warning timeout, in which Cowher�s defense rushed only 4 men at Hall of Fame QB John Elway, while covering the most likely pass recipient (Shannon Sharpe) with a LB (Gildon) who, at the time, almost never dropped into coverage.
In all, the Stillers have never beaten a favored team in the playoffs, and have woefully lost -- or won weakly despite playing like manure -- as a favorite several times.