Playoff Week 1 in Review:

 

Long-term Stiller.com fans may remember the stat breakout shown below as similar to those begun last season.� The first (3) categories are variants of the traditional �control the tempo� paradigm.� Takeaways can be an equalizer. �YPA is (yards per passing attempt); TOP is (time of possession).�

 

Category	Previous	This week	Year to date	Won this stat but lost the game
Total yards rushing	168-67-5	3-1	171-68-5	NYG
TOP	176-63-1	2-2	178-65-1	Cleveland NYG
100 yard rushers	84-37	1-1	85-38	NYG
>/= +2 Takeaways	107-13	2-1	109-14	Cleveland
YPA	186-48-6	2-2	188-50-6	Cleveland

 

Futility Index:

 

• Cleveland was the only team this season to win the (3) most important indicators (TOP, YPA and takeaways) and still lose.

 

• There was no +2 in the NYG @ SF game and, while the Giants got nipped 7.79-7.71 in YPA, they certainly passed effectively enough to win.� Couple that to a 100-yard RB, a huge TOP margin and you�d expect victory.� Not the weirdest game of the year, not even the weirdest of the day but a solid contender for top 5 overall in the 2002-03 Futility Games of Fame.

 

Steelers Index:

 

1. Coming in, the Steelers were 0-5 in games when they were (-2) or worse in takeaways.� Now, they are 1-5; that conforms fairly closely to the league-wide winning percentage in that category which was 0.108 in the regular season.� Year long, it is (now) 0.114.� Given the Steelers are now at 0.167, with at most (3) games to go, it follows that they got their categorical exception for this year.

 

2. Going into the Carolina game, there had to be some concern about T-Max�s ability to function in cold weather.� After all, that could have been no factor in either indoor Arena-ball or in Vince McMahon�s summer league.� Add to that the fact that Maddox�s two worst outings were against Tennessee and Houston, the two coldest game days to Week 15 and, certainly, there was then cause for concern.� Well, that�s all over now; of (6) games this season in which the Steelers scored (30) or more, (3) were the most recent @ Heinz, in December and January.

 

3. Maddox has appeared in (13) games so far; the Steelers� 9-3-1 mark in those includes (3) 4^th quarter comebacks.� The deficits were considerable, to include 7, 11 and 12 points.

 

4. Kendrell Bell was credited with (1) PD; this easily could have been a pick. He deflected another though that was caught for a short gainer and later provided reasonably good EZ coverage on a pass to Jamal White in the 4^th quarter.� This suggests that, contrary to what we�ve heard from Steeler HQ, Bell does have some coverage ability.� This suggests that, if not in Tennessee next week, then certainly in the 2003 regular season the Steelers do have a nickel option featuring both Bell and Porter (Smash and Flash) as package backers.� Should this ever actually happen, please recall that you saw it proposed here first, in September 2001.��

 

5. As was documented last week, the Steelers experienced a severe drop-off of TFL from their mark a year ago.� However, they managed to re-kindle that flame against the Browns.� According to the play-by-play on NFL.com, the B&G had (10) stuffs Sunday.� Here you go:

 

Player	Sacks	Pressures	Stuffs	TFL	Other
Porter	1		2	3
Bell			1.5	1.5	1 PD, (2) T for (0) yards
Farrior	1	1	1	2.0	(1) T for (0) yards
Gildon		1	0.5	0.5	1 PD, (2.5) T for (0) yards
Hampton			1	1
Townsend			1	1	2 PD
Washington			1	1	2 PD
Flowers			(2) Assists	1
Logan			1	1	1 PD, 1 INT

 

In addition, Bell, Farrior and Gildon combined for 5.5 tackles stopping runs for no gain.� Quite obviously, the Steeler Front 7 controlled the LOS.

 

6. Not so the air; the Steelers defended just (7) of (40+) passes or something around 16%.� That�s down even from their very mediocre regular season rate.� (5) men listed above made plays on the ball; as usual, neither Steeler starting safety was able to do so.� As expected, the Steelers� #7 DB, Hank Poteat, made no positive impact.

 

7. Watching Northcutt return a punt more or less unimpeded, I got to thinking about the speed on the Steelers coverage units.� Here are the Combine tests for the past (3) draft classes:

 

Player	40	Rank @ position	Remarks
Chris Hope	4.46	T-4 among 31 safeties tested.	Lamont Thompson, Dante Wesley and Coy Wire were faster, but not much.� Hope tied Tank Williams
Larry Foote	4.77	19 in a field of 21 OLB tested.	About the same standing in shuttle and cone.
Verron Haynes	4.66	T-21 in a field of 30 RB tested.	Of the (9) slower backs, only Jamar Martin and Charles Stackhouse were drafted.
Brett Keisel	4.77	6th in a field of 22 DE tested.	Of the (5) faster, (3) were 1st round draft picks.
Kendrell Bell	4.64	T-3 in a field of 27 LB tested
Hank Poteat	4.54	T-17 in a field of 31 CB tested.
Clark Haggans	5.04	20th in a field of 21 LB tested.	Cone and shuttle marks were both top ten but those talents don�t figure much in kick coverage.

 

����� In 2000, Northcutt ran 4.45.

 

8. You don�t have to be a Pro Bowl QB to throw on the Steelers.� Kelly Holcombe made his 4^th NFL start Sunday; his yardage mark is, for now, a season high against the Steelers surpassing even Rich Gannon�s (405) in Game 2.� It is worth noting that Gannon had a dozen or so more attempts than did Holcombe.

 

9. Premium draft picks? Well, as is well known, Gannon was a former 4^th round selection.� Perhaps not so well known, Kelly Holcombe was a rookie free agent

 

10. 92.9, that is the QB rating for both Kelly Holcombe and Brad Johnson this past season.� Local media hailed the resurrection of the Steeler D-side after they had their effectively throttled the Bucs @ T-Bay.� Evidently that was overly optimistic; while (per #5 above) the Front 7 played about as well last Sunday as in Florida, the D-backs did not.� Why? Well, consider that Shaun King finished with a QB rating of 30.

 

11. �If they could actually defend the spread, would the Steelers be odds-on favorites to get that thumb ring?� (Answer below).

 

Playoff Opponents:

 

On the O-side, the Steelers� last (3) Steeler regular season opponents finished (respectively) Panthers (31), Bucs (24), and Ravens (26) in YPG.� Their (3) remaining prospective playoff opponents finished: Jets (22), Titans (17), and Raiders (1).� The worst offense in the AFC playoffs is somewhat better than the best of the Steelers� past five regular season opponents; for example, the Browns were (23).� You�ve got to believe that the Steelers will have trouble stopping any team remaining.

 

On the D-side, the Steelers� last (3) regular season opponents finished (respectively) Carolina (2), Bucs (1) and Ravens (22).� Their (3) remaining prospective playoff foes finished:� Jets (24), Oakland (11) and Titans (10).� You�ve got to believe the Steelers can move the ball on any opponent remaining.�

 

Put it together:

 

Team	Offense	Defense	Added
Steelers	5	7	12
Raiders	1	11	12
Titans	17	10	27
Jets	22	24	46

 

 

(Answer):� Hell yes.