24 March 2001: Draft Notebook

 

This report is an interim between Stacking the Board 2 (previously posted) and STB 3 to follow.� This piece presumes that the 2001 Stillers shall ply the 3-4, do or die.� The column heads follow those laid out in STB 2.� Since I�ve discussed a good many of these prospects previously, I won�t repeat myself here.

 

First Round:� These players have the physical traits to Fit the Stillers System and could be values at the spot.

 

 

Player	Eye Test	College Production	Workouts confirm eye test?	Football Character	Value per�� round	Draft or DND	Remarks	Similar type
(Gerard Warren)	Yes	Yes	Yes	No info	Premium DT require premium spots	Yes	Top 3 selection	Shaun Rogers
Dan Morgan	Yes	Yes	Yes	Excellent	Dubious, quality MLB later.	Yes	Best character/talent and fit to system	Kendrell Bell
Richard Seymour	Yes	Very good, not great barely mid-1st.	No info	Mixed	Absolutely, as Warren	Yes	Has 2-gap size and may have explosiveness	Kris Jenkins
Nate Clements	Yes	Very good, not great projection at mid-1st.	Yes	No info	Yes, top CB come at a premium too.	Yes, top athlete and OSU CB have performed	4.38 40, good KR. Ideally, would allow Scott to go to FS in 2001.	Ken Lucas
Willie Middlebrooks	Yes	Good, but not 1st round material	Yes	No info	Yes, as Clements	No.� Extreme projection at this spot.	Could be great but very much a size/speed prospect here.	William Petersen

 

 

Reaches:� Middlebrooks is at the head of a list of players I like, but not at 16.� This includes Casey Hampton, Alan Archuleta and Will Allen.� All these men have physical attributes that are, roughly, state of the art combined with high football character.� All fit the system and any would help the Stillers.� However, at 16, they would each be a reach.�

 

First Round Continues:� These men have the ability and character to succeed in the NFL but Do Not Fit the Stillers System.

 

 

 

Player	Eye Test	College Production	Workouts confirm eye test?	Football Character	Value per�� round	Draft or DND	Remarks	Similar type
Justin Smith	Yes, prototype 4-3 RDE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes, premium pass rusher	Won�t be available.	Would need twin jumbo DT to succeed in 3-4.	DeLawrence Grant
Andre Carter	Yes, as Brackens type	Yes	Yes, ran 4.56 40 at 6�-4�, 250#	Yes, good bloodlines too.	Yes	Would require DT protection as a 4-3DE.�� OLB with speed confirmation	Great technician who could learn OLB	Kyle Vanden Bosch
Jamal Reynolds	Yes, as Hardy/Boulware type	Yes	Yes, 4.68 at 268# 4.55 at 255#.	No info	Yes	Yes, as a LB.� Reminds me of Chad Brown.	Work out at LB before drafting	Karon Riley
Daimoine Lewis	Marginal	Yes, but senior year declined	Not state of the art	No info	Yes	No, this man is a one-gap 4-3 DT.�	Poor fit for the Stillers. Marginal value at 16 for any team.	Willie Howard, Ron Edwards
Drew Brees	No, short	Yes	No, arm strength.	Yes	Yes	No	West Coast QB doesn�t fit	Chris Weinke

 

 

Summary:� There are (1) QB, (3) RB, (2) WR and (2) OT who will probably be gone when the Stillers draft.� They are: Vick, Deuce, LT, Bennett, Terrell, Robinson, Davis and Walker.� WR Mitchell and Moss, TE Heap and OG Hutchinson may go too.� That�s 8-12 offensive players.

 

Warren and Smith will be in the Top 5; added to the O-side, that is 10-14 players.� This would leave 1-5 teams who have a shot at the (5) D-side players who could help the Stillers but aren�t top 5 guys.� Those odds are, at best, fair though they would get a lot better if Stroud and Lewis go out early.

 

In sum, 0-5 of the following players will be available.� Those are: Morgan, Seymour, Clements, Reynolds and Carter.� Based on their workouts and college productivity, Carter and Reynolds are similar players.� On my team, either could replace Gildon though, assuming his 4.56 is legit, Carter is my man.� Both have the production but since they do not fit the system, are projections with respect to position.

 

Seymour and Clements, while they play different positions, both fit various Stiller needs.� However, their college productivity did not reflect the dominance we might have expected.� Both are projections based on type; neither are sure-fire producers.

 

Morgan is the best bet to bring immediate help at a position of need.� However, 16 is high for an MLB and, with two MLB like Holmes and Morgan, the 3-4 could be enfranchised here forever.

 

(DND):� Stroud, Lewis.�

 

First Round Outlook:� The percentage play is to look to trade down.� Start now. I�d be happier with (3) picks between 25-55 than with 16/50.� Turning to the 2^nd round:

 

Second Round:� Again, players who would be values and Fit the Stillers System.� By type/position, Hampton or Middlebrooks would be very good picks.� Archuleta seems like a player but safety is not a maximum need.��

 

 

Player	Eye Test	College Production	Workouts confirm eye test?	Football Character	Value per�� round	Draft or DND	Remarks	Similar type
Shaun Rogers	Yes	Spotty	No info	Sam Adams	Yes	Yes	Contingent on injury	Mario Monds
Sedrick Hodges	Yes	Very good	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Freakish	Orlando Huff
Kris Jenkins	Yes	Spotty	Yes	Mixed, intelligent but has been poorly coached	Yes	Yes, contingent on interview	Could have more upside than Seymour interview critical	Fred Wakefield
Kendrell Bell	Not quite	Very good	Good, not freakish	Yes	Yes	Yes		Eric Westmoreland
Torrance Marshall	Not quite	Very good	Good, not freakish	Yes	Yes	Yes	Has championship intangibles	Edgar Hartwell
Ken Lucas	Yes	Good	Yes, sub-4.5 40	No info	Yes	Maybe	Turns down tackles?	Gary Baxter

 

Drafting for need:� by 2^nd day, I mean 4^th or 5^th round.� It�s potluck after that.

 

1. Defensive Line:� the Stillers need a minimum of (2) two-gap players.� This type is capable of playing the 4-3 and is essential to the 3-4.� The DL is so terrible that there isn�t a player in the world, including Sapp, who, alone, could up-grade that unit�s performance.� Forget the idea of a single savior and forget all one-gap players.� Since the Stillers have not moved in FA, (2) picks are required here.� Two-gap players available this spring are limited to:

 

Position	1st day value	2nd day value
Pass rushers	Richard Seymour Kris Jenkins	Ron Edwards Daleroy Stewart Derrick Chambers Fred Wakefield
Run-stopper only	Shaun Rogers Casey Hampton	Mario Fatafehi Mario Monds Shawn Wortham

�

The DL is full of scrubs; of the players listed as 2^nd day types, I like the Mario brothers but both may be out in the 3rd.� A minimum of (1) 1^st day pick is required here; I wouldn�t be upset if the Stillers used both for this unit.

 

2. The Stillers need a LB capable of replacing Kirkland now and Gildon in 2002, should the 3-4 finally die.� They could use a run-stuffer to back up Holmes; it would be great if this player had the speed to help on ST.� Players available this spring are:

 

Position	1st day value	2nd day value
Coverage linebacker	Dan Morgan Sedrick Hodge Kendrell Bell Torrance Marshall	Eric Westmoreland, Brian Allen Orlando Huff Chris Edmonds
Run-stopper only	Carlos Polk	Edgar Hartwell Brandon Spoon

�

3. The Stillers need a primetime CB with size/speed.� This would allow Scott to go to FS; alternatively, the Stillers need a safety with speed and ball skills.� I subscribe to the �best player� principle but with the needs in the Fr. 7 and OL, I�d be satisfied with (1) DB.� Some players available this spring are:

 

���

Position	1st day value	2nd day value
CB	Clements, Allen, Middlebrooks	Micheal Stone William Petersen Dwight Smith Eric Kelly, late
Safety with ball skills	Gary Baxter Idrees Bashir	Adrian Wilson Corey Hall, late

 

4. Given the 2002 contract situation on the O-line, the Stillers could use a couple of interior prospects now.� As previous, I�m reserving them for the second day.� Players available this spring are:

 

Position	4th-6th	7th-FA
OG/C	Casey Rabach Bernard Robertson	Jeff McCurley Bruce Wiggins John Semchenko
OG/T	Paul Zukauskas Matt Light Ryan Diem	Micheal Keathley Scott Kempenich Dennis Norman Scott Draper

 

 

Outlook:� the best move remains for the Stillers to trade out of 16.� The defense needs a minimum of (1) premium cover type, whether LB or DB and (2) premium DL.� That�s tough with (2) 1^st day picks.� With three D-side 1^st day picks, between 30-70, the Stillers could reserve the 4^th round for the interior OL.�

 

Without a trade, the Stillers might be best served to go DL with both 1^st day selections.� The FA train has left the station with all useful DL players on-board.� The cap victims remaining, while big names, are nearly done.� Excluding Washington, the 3-4 Stillers aren�t attractive to those men.� Washington is about 33; he has maybe two years.� It is highly likely that his contract would consume much of the 2002 cap space freed by cutting Dirt and Kirk.�

 

Make the trade; the Stillers should spend 2 of their first 3 picks on the DL.�� They need (2) two-gap players early in a two-gap limited draft.� As things stand, they may have to rely on some 4^th round selection.� We�ve seen that before.�� I�d rather take my chances with, say, Westmoreland in the 4^th, Smith in the 5^th and Zukauskas at 5c than Stewart or Edwards.