Pittsburgh @
Tennessee, Playoff Round 2:
The redemption road rises into the highlands this week.� Beyond doubt, the Titans figure to be the Steelers� best opposition since, well, Game 10 when these teams met at the same venue.�
The Steelers have dropped (5) so far this season and, of those, the Titans provided their most severe whipping.� The Pat and Raider games were stunningly awful but it was possible to lay that off to poor preparation; take the usual opening debacle, add in Coach Cowher�s remarkable obtuseness in the six days between Games 1 and 2 and, well, there you go.� The Steelers were in the Saints game, kind of, and as for Houston, well, that was more or less the NFL�s Haley�s Comet.
In Tennessee though, the Steelers were beaten up front on both sides of the ball.� The O-line was utterly dominated and, while it is true that the Front 7 was handicapped by Coach Lewis�s then reflexive reliance on the dime and the damned dime line, it is equally true that the playmakers (Porter, Gildon and Bell) each, at various points, allowed McNair to slip out of tackles.� All in all, the Titans put a vicious, unrelenting beating on the Steelers, one made far worse by everyone�s post-game concern for Tommy Maddox.�
Tommy is back in the saddle and, given that the Steelers have scored (30) or more in 3 of their past 4 games, I believe we now can be assured that Maddox can play outside, even in inclement weather.� Certainly, Pittsburgh�s hopes to advance rest entirely with their offense since, last week, we saw that Coach Lewis�s D-side charges have no better clue in dealing with the spread now than was true 15 or 16 games before.� Factor in the fact that Logan, their only competent safety, is gone and that Scott may not be back or, if he is, may be unable to tackle effectively and, well, there you go again.� The defense has allowed (30) points or more in 7 of 17 games so far; off that, you better believe that the Titans will spread the field; you�ve got to believe that the Steelers won�t deal and so, inevitably, you must conclude that, to win, (5) TD will be the bare minimum.� Given that, let�s turn first to the Titan D-side:
- The Titans run a 46 old-style Bears type defense as their base.� In general, this is an up-close, highly aggressive, downhill scheme originally designed to counter Gibbs-ball, a power-running game and vertical passing attack.� It follows that passing on running downs and running out of pass formations is the way to go.
- Tennessee totaled (40) sacks; of those, their D-line had (31).� LDE Kevin Carter led the way with (10) sacks, RDE Carlos Hall had (8).� RDE Jevon Kearse had (2) in limited late season action.� The Titans� 4-man DT rotation collected (9), while none of the four had great individual stats, all are solid players and the Titans DT depth will factor in this game.�� Starting LDT John Thornton is a solid plugger, RDT Henry Ford plays with energy but, at this point, has limited endurance and LDT Robarie Smith is a slightly undersized pass down player.� Starting RDT Albert Haynesworth is the weak link; this 1st round rookie lacks strength and, at 6�-6�, has pad level issues.� Presuming Kearse is healthy, on passing situations we can expect to see Carter move inside to pair with Smith at DT with Hall and Kearse at DE.� Again, that�s the time to run the ball.
- ROLB Keith Bullock led the Titans with (127) tackles including (10.5) stuffs.� Bullock is the Titans primary coverage backer; as such, he is equivalent to Porter.� However, the Titans Front 4 pressure doesn�t require Bullock to rush; in contrast, it�s not at all clear that the Steelers have compensated effectively for dropping Porter off. LOLB Peter Sirmon was a find in the 4th round in 2000; this man was second on the team to Bullock with (93) T.� MLB Randall Godfrey has been hampered with injuries and is now first off the field in passing situations.�
- RCB Samari Rolle and LCB Andre Dyson are swift but small.� It�s reasonable to expect both will need help against either Plax or Hines.� Between them, these CB have defended (27) balls, (6) less than Scott and DW; these tandems were even with (5) picks each.
- Rookie SS Tank Williams is effective in close, less so in space.� FS Lance Schulters is a playmaker; a former Pro Bowler at the position and FA this winter (as was Rod Woodson), Schulters posted (6) INT, (11) PD and (84) T.
- Nickel Donald Mitchell is another small guy; he had (6) PD against (49) T and just (1) INT.� That PD/T ratio suggests that Mitchell can be abused.
Keys
- Do unto others�? �The Steelers� defense has struggled against the spread; at the same time, their offense does have the personnel to win all WR vs. DB battles from 1 thru 4.� Accepting that they�ll need plenty of scores, it seems a no-brainer to go spread, no-huddle early and often.� However, the Titan D-line brings most of the pressure that team exerts; that contrasts with the Steelers who, variously, drop or sit their most dangerous rushers (Porter and Bell) in package situations.� Bottom line: the Titans can still pressure out of their dime with their D-line, as the Steelers cannot.��
It�s worth noting that the Titans have the same basic problem on the D-side, as does Pittsburgh.� That is, their Front 7 is stout but their package D-backs are suspect and their package D-linemen are one-dimensional.� Consider that Randall Godfrey is a better football player than Donald Mitchell; Peter Sirmon is a better football player than dime back Rich Coady.� Add to that the fact that the base DT, Thornton and Ford, are strong run defenders but their rush DT, Carter and Smith, are not and it is evident that the Steelers figure to be more effectively balanced out of the spread than the base. In essence, the spread may force the Titans to field lesser players at up to (4) positions; that�ll work, we�ve seen the inverse here all year long.� Of course, the gamble is that the Steeler OT can keep Kearse and Hall off T-Max.� This may require a quantity of 3-wide, 2-RB sets rather than 4-wide throughout.
- Take care of Tommy:� Often in the old Bears� set, D-linemen cover-up each of the OL interior three.� The Titans did quite a lot of that last time and generated consistent interior pressure.� Kendall Simmons was tooled in that game, nearly as badly as last Sunday.� Throughout the year, Simmons has played effectively against speed tackles like Warren Sapp but often has been out-muscled by power players like Gerard Warren or John Parella.� In contrast, Keydrick Vincent defeated the powerful Marcus Stroud in Jagland.� It�s worth noting that two factors contributed to the Steelers late move Sunday.� One obviously was the spread, no-huddle; the second was Vincent in for Simmons.� This week, Vincent may be the better choice, especially against power players like John Thornton and Henry Ford.
It is absolutely essential that T-Max get through and into the 4th quarter Saturday.� Much has made of the fact that his QB rating in Tennessee was a miserable 44.6.� True enough but that was thru only three quarters.� What do you suppose his rating was it at that point against Baltimore in Game 16, or against Cleveland last week?� In playoff 1, Maddox ended at 89.6 or so; you�ve got to believe that his 4th quarter play Sunday pumped that rating up considerably.� Three 4th quarter wins in (13) games says it all; Maddox is the Steelers� best, possibly sole, hope to advance.��
- Change it up:� As above, throw on early downs against the Titan base and run on the packages.� It is worth noting that the Titans finished 2nd against the run this year, just 3.1 YPG behind the Steelers.� However both teams allowed a very mediocre 3.8 YPC; we�ve seen here that most of that has come against the Steeler dime; this is highly likely to be true down South too.� Further, while the Steeler pass defense leaves much to be desired, the fact is that Pittsburgh finished ahead of the Titans in that category.� The Steelers allowed 216.3 YPG at 6.53 YPA; the Titans allowed 221.3 YPG at 6.68 YPA.� While the Titan Front 4 is highly respectable, their D-backs can be had; slow that rush and (35) points becomes a real possibility.
With the return of Kearse, the Titans are at full strength on the D-side.� That is not true of their offense; #2 WR Kevin Dyson is on the IR and, possibly, the left side of their O-line will be impaired.�� LOG Zach Pillar went out in game 13; LOT Brad Hopkins went down the following week.� Given the Steelers� D-side injuries, the continuing absence of Pillar and Hopkins would be a leveling factor.� It is worth noting that, with their O-line left down, the Titans passed for just (379) yards in their last three games.� Then again, in three games prior to meeting the Steelers last time, the Titans had just (406) through the air; they got (257) against the B&G.� Personnel-wise:
- LOT Brad Hopkins is a solid veteran, give or take, at Gandy�s level.� Hop�s backup, Jason Mathews, is weak and small, by NFL standards.� ROT Fred Miller is just a guy.
- LOG Zach Pillar is one of the stronger men in the NFL; he is an excellent drive blocker and, as such, would entirely outclass Bailey, when that man is in as part of the dime line.� His backup, Tom Ackerman, is probably the worst O-linemen on either team�s roster.� OC Gennaro DiNapoli is undersized at just #287; this is a battle the Steelers will win, so long as Hampton is in the game.� ROG Benji Olsen is a ferocious short area brawler.� In general, the Titans get good push inside while their OT are finesse type players.
- The Titans have a receiving TE in Frank Wychek and a blocker in Erron Kinney; Wychek was injured early and is getting beyond his prime but still had (40) receptions and, as we�ve seen, most TE can do business against the Steelers.� Kinney had just (13) receptions.�
- The Titans can field (3) competent WR.� Derrick Mason is an excellent player who had (79) catches for (1012) yards; fortunately, Mason had no return duties this season, as he was much more a game breaker in that role than as a #1 WR.� 2nd year players Drew Bennett and Justin McCareins had (33) and (19) receptions respectively.� That�s not great but remember that the Steelers made the Falcon duo of Jefferson and Finnerman look like Rice and Taylor, or Spike and Hines.� These young Titan WR are big guys, 6�-5� and 6�-3� respectively; both can get deep as evidence by their catch averages of (14.5) and (15.8).� McCareins had his long gain (55) over Chad Scott in Game 10.�� All in all, this group features (2) big guys and (1) small, none with blazing speed.� That sounds like the Bucs and, certainly, they didn�t get much done; then again, Steve McNair was an MVP candidate while Shaun King, beyond terrible against the B&G, certainly was not.�
- It used to be that, to beat the Titans, you had to stop Eddie George.� That hasn�t been true for a couple seasons now; sure, you�ve got to stop the run but time and toe problems have, pretty much, stopped Eddie.� George came into Game 10 averaging 3.4 YPC and that is exactly where he finished the season; no RB in the top 33 had a lower YPC.� Robert Holcombe has become the Titans 3rd down back and, running mainly out of pass formations, responded with a 5.1 YPC mark.� Rookie John Simon has factored lately as a slot back; this un-drafted rookie had (16) receptions and (3) TD in that role; he had (1) TD in (9) rushes.
- Steve McNair is the whole deal for the Titans.� McNair�s air numbers are good but not overwhelming; however, we saw last time that numbers don�t tell the story with this player. McNair does what it takes to win, nothing more but only rarely anything less.� Consider that in (6) games this year, Air had less than (150) yards passing yet in (3) of those his QB rating was 92.4 or better.� More to the point, the Titans were 5-1 in those games, losing to Cleveland in OT but beating Houston (2x), Indy, New England and Jacksonville.
In contrast, the Titans are 1-1 in games where McNair threw for more than (300) yards, 1-2 in games where he had more than (40) attempts and just 3-3 in their highest passing yardage games.� Of course, most of that came early in the year; at that time, Tennessee couldn�t run the ball at all (shades of ��01).� Beyond that, they had trouble protecting their QB; beyond that, they were playing from behind throughout.
It�s what it always is, pressure and turnovers. �The Titans have allowed just (21) sacks this year; they�ve given 3 or more twice.� They are 0-2 in those contests.� Steve McNair threw (15) INT this year; (10) came in just (3) games and the Titans are 0-3 in those tilts.� In fact, McNair has thrown a pick in just (7) games this year; the Titans are 3-4 in those games.
Key:
- Tim Lewis and the dime:� Like any other team, the Titans get a huge advantage when the Steelers go dime.� It is not necessary to have (4) quality WR to spread the Steelers, as Cleveland did and, as was suggested here in Week 8 in Review would be the Browns� strategy for Game 8, let alone the playoffs a couple months later.� Oakland spread it out with (3) WR, Garner or Kirby and any TE; the Pats often had (3) WR and (2) TE.� Steve McNair ran the spread almost exclusively at Alcorn and has run it productively in the NFL too.� In my opinion, Tennessee will spread the field simply to force Lewis to implement his (doomed) package, whether they use (3) WR and Wychek or (2) WR, Wychek, George and/or Simon is incidental.� Whenever the dime has come on (whether on 3rd down or in the prevent or all day long), the Steelers have been helpless against the pass, from Game 1 through Game 17.� Often, as against Oakland in Game 2 and Tennessee in Game 10, they�ve failed to stop the run in that pack too.� Consider this report on the last Titan v. Steeler contest, from Week 11 in Review:
�On the game, the Titans
were 40/121 running the ball, factor out (3) McNair kneel-downs at the end and
they were 37/124 or 3.35 YPC.� On third
down, against the Steeler dime line, the Titans rushed 10/55 or 5.5 YPC
including (1) TD and (6) conversions.� Eddie
George was 5/28 on 3rd down and 24/51 for the rest of the game.�
Why?� Well, maybe because Casey Hampton is
typically in the game on the early downs but rarely in the 3rd down
pack.� The nut-cutting play in this game
came early in the 2nd quarter when, facing 3rd and 10
from their own 9, the Titans sent George up the gut for (11) and a 1st
down.� That play initiated their 91-yard
TD drive; that drive was completed when, on a 3rd and goal, the
Titans sent George up the gut for a 4-yard TD.�
Again, Hampton was not in the game; rather, the Steelers had 6DB on to
defend (14) yards (4 on the field and a 10-yard EZ). Absolute idiocy.
The dime blows (and not in
a good way) against the run and apparently is less effective against the pass
than is the Steeler base.� On the game,
McNair was 18/33 for 257 or 7.8YPA.� On
third down, McNair was 7/9 for 113 or 12.55 YPA; on other downs he was 11/24
for 144 or 6.0 YPA.� That�s about a 46%
completion average on 1st and 2nd vs. 77% on 3rd.� Worse, the big pass for 55 over Scott came
on 3rd down too.�
That is all; the Steeler base Front 7 spent their game in Cleveland�s backfield; for the most part, that�s been their residence since, at least, the Houston game.� Against Cleveland, as for most of the season, the Steeler dime Front 4 spent their time stymied on the LOS.� No pressure, no hope especially considering that the dime this week (shorn of Logan and possibly Scott) will feature, at most, three DB with any coverage skills.� Bring the dime and the Steelers will be playing 7 (or, with Scott, 8) on 11 against the pass.�
Considering that 2 or 3 of the Titan receivers will be RB or TE, the DC should consider keeping his dime in his trou.� The Steeler LB corps is at least as good a match-up for TE and RB as are their safeties.� In fact, that LB group is the strongest unit, and the safeties the weakest, on the D-side.� So far this season, Coach Lewis has tried the rest; it might be time for him to go with his best.��
Summary:
On defense, the Steelers choice is simple; live or die with the blitz or, for sure, bleed out from the holes in their inept zone coverage.� On offense, it�s a bit different; on the one hand, you�d like to control the clock so to keep the defense off the field but, on the other, that no-huddle certainly can put up the numbers.� Considering that the Titan run-d rivals their own, it seems apparent that the Steelers can�t use any power running to control the clock.� That so, it figures to be spread on spread with scoring into the WNBA range.� Welcome to hardnosed Arena Football outdoors.�