2003, A to Z:
A is for Air Wars:� Oakland was ranked #1 in passing offense last season; otherwise, Indy was the Steelers� highest ranked opponent, at #5.� This year�s schedule includes Oakland, St. Louis (# 2 in �02), Seattle (#3), Denver (#8) and KC (#11).�� Arizona is a coming foe too, they ranked (#28) last year; that�s bad but better than 2002 opponents Jacksonville (#30), Carolina (#31) and Houston (#32).
On the plus side, the Steelers were (#7) passing the pig and, with T-Max in from the jump, do figure to improve.� Also, included among those coming foes whose pass-D finished below the �02 Steelers (#20) are: NYJ (#21), SF (#22), Oakland (#23), Tennessee (#25), Baltimore (#26), Arizona (#28), KC (#31) and San Diego (#32).
B is for the B-boys, Breuner, Bettis, Burress and
Bell:� Surprisingly,
the Steeler FO compelled Mark Breuner to accept a 2003 pay reduction of 1.205
M, way down to 800K.� I say
surprisingly, not because he can�t help this season (I think he can) but because
the PS hasn�t typically done business that way.� Right or wrong of course, but the fact is Jerry O was the only
player previously required either to renounce his in-place deal, or to move
on.�
There�s no question that Breuner is about as one-dimensional
as a player as he is exemplary as a teammate, or citizen.� Still, it doesn�t follow that his presence
in the huddle will signal the run; in fact, it�s just as reasonable to suppose
that he�ll be in with the 3-wide, say, with Amoz or Fu making a 4th
(real) receiver out of a single back set.�
The PS has questions at OT and, maybe, Mark will earn his pay as a 6th
pass protector, and receiver of last resort.�
Naught from not, that puts Reimersma in with the pro set, making a 3rd
legit receiver with Ward and Spike, while Kreider and Bettis grind the rock.
As for the Bus, well, if he can reprise his early �01
form, that 3.89M hit is short money but if not, not.� In the mid-range though, Burress and Bell are the
difference-makers but any 2004 extensions for either seems unlikely as, since
Breuner�s deal is for just one year, it�s possible the FO will dealing with a
1.8M bonus acceleration consequent of cutting him 11 months on.� Same with Bettis, a 4.757M 2004 cap hit,
or1-3M acceleration sometime in 2004.��
C is for the Chargers:� 32nd against the pass last year, unsurprisingly, San Diego has re-tooled their secondary. Like the Steelers, they let go their big-hit, no-cover $3M SS.� Unlike the Steelers, they let go their FS too; Rogers Beckett is in Cincy now and, chances are, former CB Ryan McNeil will be the Chargers FS in 2003.� Additionally, San Diego moved down in the draft last spring and got (my guy) CB Sammy Davis at 1.30 and (Mike Prisuta�s guy) SS Terrence Kiel, just past Zo at 2.62.� In between, they got hybrid CB/FS Drayton Florence too.
Clearly, that strategy was available to the Steelers; in fact, I�d suggested as much in Mock Drafts 1 & 2.� Draft Davis, move Scott to FS, let Logan and Hope battle at SS, get your CB prospect to develop for Washington.� Well, we know what the Steeler FO did, and I�m not bitching about it; however, I�ll be interested to see which best pays out, a quantity of highly capable prospects, or one elite pick.
D is for depth:� Every team has good depth at some positions but is lacking that elsewhere.� The Steelers are rich in the interior O-line, TE, RB and, with two vets with starting experience, at QB too.� You�ve got to be wary of that defense though; we saw what Bell�s injury did last year, and IMO, the reserves at CB and OLB are highly suspect.� That said, the man they just can�t lose on the D-side is Casey Hampton.� Big anchors the run-D and, pass-happy as the league may be now, an effective run game still controls the clock, and TOP still usually wins.� On the O-side, it�s Spike; while Ward averaged 11+ YPC and ARE 10+, Burress hung up 17.0.� Without him, the Steelers� vertical game shrinks sharply, and so does their chance at a championship.
E is for EZ $: �Accepting the observation (made by others) that the home team wins about 80% in the playoffs, betting those games is easy money.� Figure the 1 seed at 64% to move on to the Big Bowl (0.8 x 0.8), the 2 seed at 16% (0.8 x 0.2), the 3 and 4 seeds, home first and road thereafter at 3.2% (0.8 x 0.2 x 0.2) and both the 5 and 6 seeds at 0.8%.�
That will get you started.� Last season, I took home teams only (until the CC tilts) so, since I don�t bet against the Steelers, I went 6-1 in the opening rounds, just mailing it in.� That L was with Atlanta @ GB; then again, if I had been picking I�d have taken GB and the NYG over SF.�� So, form was better than thought in that case and, for whatever reason, I did take the Bucs over the Phil-birds in the NFCC.�
Good guess, with a resulting 8-1 overall, and with very little work involved. �This illustrates the importance of a 1st round bye and you�ve got to believe that any contending team�s chances for that playoff rest go up with a mid-regular season pause.� The Steelers get a break in Week 8 this year, and that�s all good.
�
F is for Alan Faneca:� Some regard Faneca as the best OG in
football; with (2) PB appearances in the past two seasons, this player has a
solid chance to become the mostly highly decorated OG in PS history.� You know, the centers have been the big dogs
here; Webster had something around (9) PB appearances and Dawson had (7).� In contrast, Dick Dodrill leads the all-time
OG parade with (4); George Hughes and John Nisby are up the track with
(2).� Faneca is 26-years old so it�s likely
that his best days are ahead.� He�s
signed here through 2007; certainly, he could get to Honolulu five times more.
�
G is for glass:� Before steel, Pittsburgh was a notable glass center; in fact, PPG remains somewhat closer to their roots than, say, USX.� Had the titans of steel not guaranteed their ore supply by extending a railroad head into the Mesabi, Pittsburgh�s football franchise might be known today as, say, the Glazers, not the Steelers.� What�s the point?� Well, some may say the (glass) window is open, this season and next; some may say that the Steelers� C$3 laden-roster is, effectively, a ceiling of glass through which they might see, but not grasp, that SB crown.
H is for Hank Poteat:� This much-maligned player figures as the #4 CB here which is to say, an injury to Scott or Washington elevates Hank to #1 NCB.� Not good, Poteat had a solid rookie season as a PR but he folded in year two and by now ARE has far surpassed him.� Poteat did look pretty good at DB in August-ball for each of the past two seasons but I think we all understand that his performance in the Cleveland playoff was as bad as any ever, at any time, for any team.� Still, as much as I like Ike, I don�t see Taylor moving in as a legit #4 this year so, as at FS so at CB too, what they�ve got is what they had.
Now, there is a question as the options available to the FO and, at the risk of shilling for burghsportsguys (again), I�d suggest you check their article, Addressing the Obvious Achilles Heel.��� Long story short, there were maybe five prospective #3 or #4 CB reasonably available last winter.� Of those, I�m down with Willie Williams but, unfortunately, Willie re-signed with Seattle recently for something like the 10-year vet minimum.� This he did (presumably) after finding no team interested in his services as a starter because, for damn sure, he figures to be behind Shawn Springs, Ken Lucas and rookie Marcus Trufant along Union Bay.�
Whatever.� The 10-year minimum is a Terrence Mathis kind of deal that nets the player 755K or so but costs the team only around 475K against the cap.� That�s less than Hank�s 605K RFA tender and IMO, Williams, even at 33, is a better bet than Poteat and, again IMO, this wee former Steeler had some kind of shot at squeezing by Deshea for #3.� For sure, had the FO struck a deal with Williams, they would have had (4) CB with starting experience, and, of course, Ike.� That�s a pretty good mix of vet savvy and long-range potential; what they�ve actually got seems substantially less promising.�
I is for high ankle sprain, or chronic injury.�
J is for Larry Johnson:� KC had a bad defense last year, they were ranked #32 overall.� Now, I guess they expect something from �02 1st round DT Ryan Simms (who showed up late, and fat, last year and then got hurt), or �03 FA LB Shawn Barber.� Still, there�s got to be a reason why a team possessed with the best RB in football would use their 1st round pick on another RB.� Maybe, LJ is that damn good; maybe, Priest Holmes is all done.� Of course, it could be both; we�ll see.
K is for Brett Keisel:� Reportedly, Keisel is up over 280# and yet, if the same reports are to be believed, has retained his quickness.�� Growth-wise, he�s tracing the route Aaron Smith blazed, who also commenced as a 260-ish rookie.� Smith moved in as an emergency starter in his 2nd season (in�00) at 280# and so towards the status of #300 multi-millionaire D-line fixture.� If Keisel can do the same, well, that�ll take care of some problems we�ve seen with the Steeler 3-4 over the past two seasons.�
The base set has been susceptible to multi-receiver packages exactly because three of the top four pass rushers are LB and, as for all teams, the LB here are the auxiliary cover guys.� If they�re not rushing, there is no rush because, after Smith, there is no genuine rush threat among the Steeler D-linemen.� Maybe, Keisel moves in for KVO mid-season or by 2004; then, we might imagine the 3 in 3-4 with two Smiths at DE, rather than two NT and Smith, as is now true.� If so, the 3-4 has some legs in today�s outdoor arena-ball but if not, not.
L is for Mike Logan:� Reportedly, the Steelers will make more use of the nickel this year; that�s all good, you�ve got to get your best on the field and, for sure, the Steelers� have more quality at LB than the other D-corps.� However, that does seems to leave Logan out since, while IMO he was the Steelers best safety last season, he was used (nearly) exclusively as a dime back.� Still, contingent on his rehab, Logan has got to figure; the answer is obvious, presuming something approaching a full recovery, Mike Logan is your FS.�
M is for Marvel Smith:� The FO put 26M on Marvel making it at LOT.� If he does, it�s a bargain; if not, well, they�ll be drafting high enough, soon enough, to get some blind-side protect monster.� Probably though, it�ll be too late for Tommy.
N is for none-for the-thumb:� Chuck Noll coached (12) years after his last SB; Bill Cowher is 0-11 in that category and, obviously, is entering his 12th season.� Mr. Noll�s record is in the books; Mr. Cowher�s mark is building.� Now, we all know from 75-1-1, or 41-73; that�s over all games, regular, post-season and SB.� Coach Cowher�s regular season mark is 109-66-1; that�s nearly (10) wins per year, which is pretty good.� However, while that mean average is a guaranteed playoff berth generally, it means two and done within that format.��
Ten-win teams usually play in the 1st round, usually at home.� Home teams win 80% in the play-offs so, odds are, that the PS takes the first, but has to go on the road to play bye-team X, and generally drops that one.� So, ten regular wins, 1-1 in the playoffs is about it; oddly, those mean figures have proved out, as the Cowher-men are 7-7 in eight appearances in the playoff rounds.� Again, no one�s disputing the excellence of 75-1-1, just the context; that is, well, how many 10-point leads did Halas, Lombardi, Shula or Landry (or have Fisher, Belichick, Shanahan or Parcells) blown?�
That 41-73 is a big, mixed bag including blown (9) point leads, or blowouts the wrong way.� Still, if the 75 can�t be improved, we�d like to see, say, 44-70 the other way.� Or even just one more win; if I had to choose, I�d take the San Diego AFCC in �94.� As for some others, well, New England was very hot by the �01 AFCC� (and, while we�d like to have seen Edwards� OB punt coverage technique refined, no one expected Miller to launch the make-up punt on the trajectory of a 1-iron).� As for Denver �97, IMO, shorn off-season of his top three CB, a couple WR, Chad Brown and Ray Seals, and saddled with a 1st year starter at QB, Mr. Cowher did one of his better jobs in just getting his team to that championship tilt.��
Regardless, all that was then and this isn�t.
O is for O-side:� The 2002 Steeler defense was fortunate to face the two worst offenses in football, Carolina and Houston; Tampa Bay, with Shaun King at the controls, was about as bad.� In contrast, T-Bay�s defense was #1: Carolina�s ranked very high too and, on a yards-per-minute-on-the-field basis, so did Houston.�
This season could be the mirror image of last; if form holds T-Max�s side will get an easy ride against Seattle (#28 in overall defense), Arizona (#29) and KC (#32).�� Since the �02 Steeler offense did well against the highly ranked D-teams noted above, more than likely, they are going to be okay against those league bottom-feeders.
On the downside, the defense will have to deal with Oakland (#1 overall offense), Denver (#3), KC (#4), Seattle (#7) and SF (#8).� Of course, Oakland will be a year older, Denver has the Snake at the controls now and those hip problems could effectively excommunicate the Priest.
P has got to be for Troy Polamalu:� The FO bet the farm on this player; anyway, they anted (pick one of Andre Woolfolk, Larry Johnson, Sammy Davis, Boss Bailey or Ken Hamlin), and (another one of Chris Brown, Dennis Weathersby, Lee Suggs or Onterrio Smith) and finally (Tully Bantu-Cain and who knows).� Polamalu has all the tools; in fact, some in the USC program regarded him as their best safety since Ronny Lott.� That�s quite a comparison; then again, Troy�s past string of concussions together with his current nagging hamstring might bring, say, Fu to mind.�����
Q is for QB rating:� Here are a few 2002 rankings for some QB we�ll be seeing next year:� Pennington (#1), Gannon (#2), Green (#4), Hasselbeck (#6) and Garcia (#11).� Last year, the Steelers saw Gannon, Manning (#5), Brady (#9) and Brunell (#10); they dealt effectively with two, and got torched by two.� Naught from not, but they did get a break when Brad Johnson (#3) missed that MNF tilt in Tampa.�
Of course, QB ratings might not mean much.� As noted, Brunell was #10 but the Jags�s pass-O was 30th.� Jeff Blake was just 23rd ratings-wise but he tore up the Scott-free Steelers in Week 17.� We�ll see Blake with Arizona, and Drew Brees (24th QB rating last year) with San Diego.� As for our guy, well, Touchdown Tommy was T-15th (with Jay Fiedler); disturbingly, T-Max�s 85.2 rating (again, 15th last year) is currently 3rd on the Steelers� single-season all-time chart.
R is for run game:� That 3-wide set should provide more than a few highs but running the ball still wins.� Some of the aviation-fueled O-sides we�ll see this year are yoked to defenses that are exceptionally weak against the run, notably KC (#24 against the run), Cleveland (#27), and Seattle (#32).� TOP wins and, in those games, grinding the rock probably will be the way to roll.
S is for Chad Scott:� Scott has flashed dominating form at times; say, in �97, his rookie season when he was probably the Steelers� most effective DB down the stretch, or �01, when he had a string of INT early, returning a couple for TD, or late last year, when he scored off a Shaun King aerial and a couple weeks later, half-recovered from his broken hand, made a must-have pick against the Titans.� Too often though Scott has disappeared, sometimes for the better part of a season.� If not now then soon, this man is going to be the vet of the Steeler secondary and he�s going to have to work out that consistency thing, especially on the leadership level.� He�ll be at FS then, for now, we need him to play like a #1 CB, or #1.3 anyway.
T is for Terrell Owens, or maybe Torry Holt.� Troy Edwards?� Not so much, but how about TE Todd Heap, or Tony Gonzales?� LaDainian Tomlinson?
U is for UDFA:� The rookie pool tells you what the Steelers can do; that, and the likely cost for the top three picks.� Figuring Troy, Zo and Ike make the team; the Steelers have room for (3) more active rookies.� Of course, any rookie on the taxi squad counts too, roughly at the rate of 3 on taxi per 1 active.� So, St. Pierre makes the team and now, it�s two active, or 1A and 3T, or 5T.� I�ll take the mid-proposition:� Polamalu, Jackson, Taylor, St. Pierre and UFDA Leonard Scott are the active rookies; JT Wall, Rashad Faison and Dante Brown are taxi guys.�� David Upchurch is a player who might sneak in somewhere.
V is for velocity:� Troy Polamalu was the fastest safety in the last draft but Ike Taylor is now the fastest Steeler drafted then.� If WR/KR Leonard Scott makes the squad, well, Ike could drop to #2 on the �03 roster.
W is for West Coast:� The Steelers will be making two trips to the near edge of the Pacific Rim, to both Seattle and SF.� Those games will be a tough go, especially for their pass defense; however, the bigger hit could come later, off the cumulative effects of nearly back-to-back trips.� After playing the Rams at home on 10/26, the Steelers head to Seattle on 11/2, then back to Pittsburgh to play the Cards 11/9.� After that, they return to the Left Coast, playing in SF (11/17); then, evidently a short week and on to Cleveland (11/23).� Somewhere, there�s going to be a letdown, maybe against the Cards or, if not then, in the week following the Cleveland game, when the PS host the Bengals.� IMO, over this stretch, they�ll lose a game they had figured to win.
X: Randle-El was the Steelers� X-factor last season, both on ST and in the 3-WR.� El was regarded as a reach in the deep 2nd then, just like Zo Jackson this year.� You�ve got to hope the FO is right about AJ; he certainly has many of the measurables to make an impact as a package rusher but he�s got some deficiencies too, notably strength and long speed.� Still, were the Steelers to go 3-down, 5-under, Cover 3 at any point (lifting this defense against the empty set from T-Bay just as they�re lifting the new nickel), Zo, along with Brett Keisel, seem to be their best DE prospects.� More than likely, that�s a reach too far but, for sure, we�d like to see the same kind of impact from Jackson as from ARE, and, oh yeah, that �01 2nd round pick, Contact Bell.�
Y is for youth and the absence thereof:� The Cowher/Colbert axis of excellence has drafted (5) starters since 2000; certainly, we all hope Polamalu will be an effective 6th.� They got ARE too, a difference-maker in various roles; they may expect the same from Zo but, well, I just don�t know.� That�s seven or eight; broadly, the PS has the same number of +30 starters to include: Bettis, Breuner, Hartings, Maddox, KVO, Gildon, Washington and Alexander. That�s eight players on the downside, or really seven since age doesn�t factor at QB.� That equation does balance, but not in the Steelers� favor.
Z is for Amos Zereoue:� Last season, Amos had (5) starts in the regular season, responding with better than 100-yards rushing on (3) occasions.� That�s good production, add his ability as a receiver and you�ve got a lot of yards total.� On the downside, there are questions as to his durability.� In Week 9, Zereoue had (29) carries against Cleveland; in Week 10, he had (37) in that epic OT bout with Atlanta.� That�s quite a workload and, evidently, it took a toll as, over the following three weeks, Amoz packed it a total of (14) times.
He did have a big close against Baltimore in Week 17, with (26) attempts.� In the two playoffs following though, he had just (13) and (14).� Now, of course the Steelers� ineptitude against opponent passing attacks obviated their own run game, to some degree.� Still, Amos has yet to demonstrate the ability to take the rock 20-24 times a game, week after week.� More than likely this season someone�s going to have to get that done.�