Cover Zero: My 4-3 Prediction Comes True
Special Commentary
by PalmerSucks
August 23, 2015
A few days ago the Washington Pa. Observer-Reporter ran a story that didn’t seem to capture much attention, but should’ve. The headline: “Steelers showing off 4-3 on defense” brought to mind a prediction I made in a previous commentary back in 2014 (Just as I Thought Part 2: The Future Stillers 4-3), recalling the day the Stillers drafted Ryan Shazier. It represents the evolution not only of the defensive scheme in Pittsburgh, but the man responsible for running the team.
First, let’s take a look at my thoughts from my May 14, 2014 “Speed Kills” draft recap:
“Football’s become a passing game, and not only that, it’s become a lateral one. These days, offenses run more bubble screens and all sorts of side-line to side-line stuff. Teams like Seattle counter this with speed defenders like Bruce Irvin, the big LB who runs a 4.4. That’s what makes the dominant Seahawks defense go: fast, versatile players who can line up at different positions, in unusually wide alignments.
Defenders like Shazier, whose 4.38 speed makes him one of history’s fastest linebackers, bring both lateral-pursuit ability and versatility to the table. I expect him to rush from the outside in certain packages. What’s more I believe he’s a Tomlin pick, and his arrival signifies that Coach will be looking to install a 4-3 defense once LeBeau retires.”
Now let’s take a look at what the Observer had to say:
“It’s a look that allows the Steelers to easily slide inside linebackers Lawrence Timmons or Ryan Shazier to the outside, perhaps giving them some additional pass rushing duties coming off the edge.
“(Shazier) is not always going to be in the middle,” Butler said. “He’s going to be outside some. Lawrence didn’t play in the (last) game. We want to make sure Lawrence is nice and healthy. We’ll see what happens when Lawrence gets healthy.” http://www.observer-reporter.com/article/20150817/SPORTS0403/150819498#.VdM6Fvbt2SY.twitter
Notice the emphasis on “wide” – as I explained back then, the Stillers would look to move Shazier around, even though they’d listed him initially as an inside linebacker. (In fact I did the Observer one better, saying that Shazier might even take on the role of defensive back in certain situations.) They’ll even look at playing Timmons on the outside – mixing and moving the ILBs around much like Seattle has done the last few years.
I saw Shazier’s drafting as more than a play to upgrade the linebacker corps; I saw it as a signal that the entire defensive philosophy of the team was going to change. As effective as LeBeau’s defense has been, it’s had one glaring weakness: a tendency to get burned by quick-strike spread-‘em-out passing attacks. Inside linebackers who can actually assume outside rush and coverage duties signal a new way of doing business for the Stillers – the days of playing pass D with run-clogging lumberers like Larry “Slow-a” Foote are long past.
A 4-3 look would not only free up faster, lighter LBs like Shazier, it would “protect” them, the additional DL taking on one of the offensive lineman. (It’s another reason they can try moving 215-lb. safeties like Ian Wild to LB.) In the Cover 2 that Tomlin favors, the 4-3 middle linebacker has to be able to run downfield covering the intermediate zones (think Brian Urlacher, himself a converted safety.)
I noticed the Stillers have had Chickillo sometimes line up with his hand in the dirt: as an end, not a linebacker, even though they’ve said they’re looking to convert him. That’s another facet of the new defense: the OLBs will function as DEs, too. The new 4-3 scheme is officially in effect – and not a day too soon, as the Stillers have to find ways to generate more pressure on the passer and more turnovers.
As the article says, the Stillers will mix in the 4-3 with the 3-4 still being the predominant alignment. This will be a nice way to throw different looks at an opponent depending on what kind of offense they run.
However, I think in time things will reverse, and the 4-3 will become the anchor base.
Indeed, the new 4-3 is more than just a new wrinkle in the defense. It means that for the first time in his career with the Stillers, Mike Tomlin will put his stamp on the team. Coach is finally free from the shadow of LeBeau and the defensive line-up that Bill Cowher put together. Let’s see now what he can do when he gets to start from scratch.
Cover 2 Mike knows this is a passing league, and though the Stillers have always prided themselves on stopping the run, it’s guys like Rogers, Brady and Luck they really need to worry about. Likewise, Butler’s take on the 3-4 is different than LeBeau’s, and he’s installed a new one-gap scheme that should make the DLs more active in pursuing the passer.
The Stillers defense has looked uneven so far, but keep in mind they’re in the middle of a real transition, and the road to change comes with bumps. They’re also breaking in rookies who are having to learn to play brand-new positions (like Dupree, who after all of two preseason games is already being judged a flop by some fans – huh?) The risks are there, but the rewards of having a defense better suited to stopping high-powered pass attacks are not only worth it, they’re long overdue.
Comments? Email ‘em to PalmerSucks@Stillers.com