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Week 10 in Review

November 12, 2003 by Steel Phantom

Total yards rushing

 

Long time readers here may be familiar with our Week in Review feature.� This work is stat-focused with twin intent, to identify those components that contribute to winning football and to find some means of evaluating those items� relative weight.�

 

Week 10 in Review:

 

 

Previous Total

This Week

Year to date

WF to date

Teams that won this category but lost their game

3rd down conversions

92-36-2

12-2

104-38-2

1.46

Vikings, Raiders.

TOP

85-45

� 7-6-1

� 92-51-1

1.28

Bucs, Seahawks, Cards, Raiders, Vikings and Pack

Total Yards Offense

81-46-3

� 7-6-1

� 88-52-4

1.25

Colts, Bucs, Cards, NYG, Ravens and Pack

Rushing Attempts

96-26-8

�� 9-5

105-31-8

1.51

Bears, Cards, Raiders, Ravens and Pack

YPA

86-43-1

12-2

� 98-45-1

1.37

Colts and NYG.

+2 Sacks

48-16

� 7-1

� 55-17

1.53

NYG

Red Zone (Efficiency)

67-41

� 8-3

� 75-44

1.26

Bears, Seahawks and Browns.

Red Zone (Trips)

88-23

� 7-2

� 95-25

1.58

Colts and Raiders

Takeaways (>/=+2)

53-4

� 7-0

� 60-4

1.88

 

Takeaways (+1 only)

26-14

� 4-1

� 30-15

1.33

Bucs

 

Note:� The index figure, WF (winning factor) is calculated as # wins/0.5 total games in category, ties are counted as � wins; it should be apparent that WF figures range between 1.0 and 2.0.� See the article, 5 Weeks in Review (October 2003), for various caveats concerning the categories posted above.

 

Coulda shoulda, teams that found a way to lose:

 

  • The Ravens forced 4 turnovers and sacked Ram QB 4 times; they held the #1 ranked Ram offense to 121 total yards and Jamal Lewis ran over the St. Louis defense.� That should have been enough but it was not; the Ravens turned it over 7 times, Raven QB were sacked 7 times and, somehow, the Rams got 33 points from those 121 yards.� The Boller Watch is over as the Raven rook QB will end the season on the IR.

 

  • Down to their #3 QB, Rick Meier, Oakland (uncharacteristically) stayed on the ground, running 52 times against the NYJ.� In what looked like a reprise of their PO blowout last season, the Raiders had the game early but the 2nd half was a different story.� The Jets rolled up over 140 on the ground late and Pennington had a 10.0 YPA throughout.� That was enough; the Raiders are just too old.

 

  • That Tampa Bay defense might be too old too, or maybe the absent Brian Kelly meant that much to their Cover 2.� The Bucs limited Carolina to 2.5 YPC and did have a +1 in takes; however, Jake Delhomme was the difference, throwing for 263 yards at a healthy 7.7 YPA.�

 

  • Fred Taylor ran through Indy (rendering their Cover 2 irrelevant) as the previously 1-7 Jags beat the previously 7-1 Colts.

 

  • Minnesota won in a few areas but were �2 in takes; through their 6 game opening win streak, they were +16 in that department.

 

  • The NYG self destructed again; this time, -4 in takes as Atlanta won their 2nd though the Falcons passed for just 2.4 YPA.

 

  • Arizona won most stat categories but the Steelers got enough pressure on Jeff Blake to hold off the Cards.�

 

  • For reasons shrouded in obscurity, Seattle�s twin genius coaches, Mike Holmgren and Ray Rhodes, elected to play coverage against the Redskins, rather than rush their battered QB, Patrick Ramsay.�� Coming in, Washington QB had been sacked 29 times; despite that, Seattle dropped off, got no sacks, got no pressure and down they did go.�

 

Steeler Index:�

 

  1. Jason Gildon had a strong game last weekend; with (11) tackles, Gildon moved to #1 of all 2003 Steeler OLB in that category.

 

  1. As we all know, Gildon is the new crowned Steelers� career sack king.� Gildon has played here since 1994 (started since �96).� In that period, Steeler opponents have gotten away 4996 passes and the PS has 444 sacks for an 8% team sack rate.� LC Greenwood played here from 1969 to 1981.� In that period, Steeler opponents got off 5442 passes while the Steel Curtain laid out QB 484 times; that also yields an 8% team sack rate.� Gildon has more sacks and a higher percentage of his team�s sacks than did Greenwood, the team rates are the same across eras so, well, you figure it out.

 

  1. Of course, it�s a different game today; consider that Gildon�s immediate predecessor, Kevin Greene, played for a number of teams from 1985 to 1999.� In that period, he had 133 sacks.� That is #1 of all LB all-time though well up the track from the top DE, Reggie White and Bruce Smith.

 

  1. In theory, the Steeler OKIE brings pressure from all over.� Well, as noted the Steelers collected 444 sacks from Game 1 �94�� through Game 9 �03.� Of those, the OLB have totaled 180 or 41%.� Two LOLB have 99 (Greene 23, Gildon 76); the starting ROLB have 81 including Lloyd (20), Brown (13), Emmons (9.5) and Porter (34.5).� Throw in Steve Conley�s (4.0) in a couple spot starts and there you go.� Note:� Vrabel is excluded since the Steelers never did find a position for that player.�

 

  1. With 9 sacks in the past 2 games, the Steeler D has raised their rate to 7.9%; with 23 sacks total, that unit now is T-7 league-wide.� Pre-bye, the D-line hadn�t been getting pressure; the LB hadn�t been getting home either, so, sleepless pre- Seattle, Tim Lewis cobbled up a safety blitz package.� The Steelers have brought Alex, Logan and Polamalu much more over the past 2 games, and the results have been good enough to cover up some structural deficiencies.

 

  1. Last week in his first 2003 start, Deshea Townsend had 2 PD; that matched Dewayne Washington�s haul over 8 starts in the opening half of this season.

 

  1. Kudos to Russ Grimm who surely must have been busy over the bye week.� While the Steelers still can�t run the ball, their pass protection has improved greatly.� Tommy Maddox has gone down just 3 times in the past 2 games while getting off 59 passes (5% sack); that�s some improvement over 22 sacks and 239 passes (8.4%), the numbers through game 6.� Little surprise that Maddox�s performance has improved with his protection; over the past 2 games, his passer rating is 98.1.��

 

  1. On the season, the Steeler O-line has allowed 25 sacks, which is tied with St. Louis.� Five teams have allowed more:� Buffalo and Seattle (26), Chicago (27), Philadelphia and Washington (29).� However, most of those teams can run the ball a little; excluding the Rams and Bills, each goes for better than 4.0YPC.� By the same token, bad running teams like Indy and the Titans do protect their QB; Indy has allowed just (8) sacks, Tennessee (15).� So, there are just 3 teams that can neither run nor protect their QB:� Pittsburgh (25 sacks, 3.3 YPC), St. Louis (25, 3.2) and Buffalo (26, 3.4).� Let�s check those QB ratings:

 

 

Overall QB rating

When ahead

When behind

RZ rating

Maddox

76.6

97.0

60.1

75.5

Bledsoe

74.4

97.4

64.4

52.2

Bulger

84.8

79.3

90.6

71.3

 

Immobile QB laboring behind bad O-lines and bereft of a run game, Maddox and Bledsoe have put up very comparable stats.� Next spring, when the Steelers are looking at their 1st round selection, the FO might well ask �WWTD?�� That is: �what would Tom do�, preferably Modrak.

 

  1. Spike�s Week 10 stat line:� 1 catch for 6 yards, 2 drops and 1 truly dumb push off penalty.��

 

  1. The Steeler O had been having their problems in the RZ this season; coming into the last game, they were just 9/26 overall.� They went 2/3 against the Cards and that number could have been better; if Burress makes a simple catch, then the Steelers are 3/3.� Of course, that�s been a factor all year; Spike�s season scoring summary (to date):� 1 TD reception, 3 TD drops (all RZ plays). �If Burress converts those 3, for say 20 yards, then Maddox�s RZ QB rating rises to 110.6, which is about where it was last season.

 

  1. �The Steeler RZ defense opened allowing 8 TD in 9 trips; coming into the Card game, they�d allowed 18/25 overall, in that game, 1/3.� That�s 19/28 on the year, which is terrible; 11/19 since the opening set, which is better but still below average.

 

Next Opponent:

 

  • We�ll see about that O-line improvement noted in #7 above.� On the season, the 49ers have 27 sacks, which is T-2 in the league.� The Steelers past 2 opponents have totaled 25; Seattle has 16, Arizona 9.

 

  • SF is #4 in the NFL with a +8 takeaway mark; they have 22 takes and 14 gives.� The Steelers are T-28 at �6; they have 11 takes and 17 gives.� Quite obviously, the big discrepancy is in takes.

 

  • Last Sunday, ARE brought back a punt for a TD.� That was his second on the season, tying him with Dante Hall for #1 in that regard.� Not from nothing, eight have been returned league-wide so Hall and ARE have combined for 50% of those.� It�ll be a tough go Monday Night though; the Niners are #2 in the league with a 5.4 YPR on punts.

 

Appendix:

 

Results observed in the previous season are tabulated below.�

 

 

Regular season 2002

Winning Factor (WF)

Total yards rushing

168-67-5

1.40

TOP

176-63-1

1.47

100 yard rushers

84-37

1.39

>/= +2 Takeaways

107-13

1.78

YPA

186-48-6

1.55

 

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